1. U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002 Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Hydrologic Component

2. Outline Spatially Explicit Land Use Modeling Peak Flow Modeling TR-20/TR-55 Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach? Low Flow Modeling Continuous Streamflow Modeling Regression Approach Items in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging Can you spell “I-C-C”?

3. Northwest Branch Watershed…

4. Temporal Change in Aggregate Land Use Distribution…

5. Tracking Land Use Change In Time AND Space… Reference: Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.

6. Land Use Change Animation Northwest Branch Watershed: 1938 - 2000. Based on methods presented in Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002 If you would like to see this again… http://www.ence.umd.edu/~moglen/WWproject.html

7. Peak Flow Modeling TR-55: “Graphical Method” (see Moglen and Beighley, JAWRA February, 2002.

8. Peak Flow Modeling For larger watersheds where channel processes or reservoirs add significant delays or attenuation of flood we use composite of TR-55 and TR-20 simulations: From Sources to first downstream point TR-20 point: In between TR-20 simulated points:

9. Continuous Streamflow Modeling: A “Simple” Model Storages Fluxes Issues Implications

10. Sample Simulation – Northwest Branch: Historic/1994-2092

11. A Different Approach – Evolution of annual 7-day low flow event Regression Approach – Low Flows in NWB Year Q 7 (m 3 /s)

12. Items In Flux: Water Quality Modeling Not much progress to date…Focus of Years 3 & 4 of WWS project Existing Models HSPF SWMM Conceptual/Simple Model Need to model land use change Dynamically

13. Items in Flux: Stream Gaging Activities… Installed 5 gages of our own across all study watersheds, scales, & land uses. Have access to data from 3 USGS stream gages at outlets of study watersheds. Have access to data from 2 Montgomery County stream gages.

14. Items in Flux: The Inter-County Connector and our Watersheds… Northwest Branch Paint Branch ICC

15. Summary / Future Directions Issues addressed or with clear approach: Land use change modeling Peak flow modeling Continuous streamflow modeling Low Flow Modeling Issues in “Flux” Water Quality Modeling Stream Gaging ICC as a “wildcard”