1. Chapter 8: Estimating with Confidence Section 8.2 Estimating a Population Proportion

2. Conditions for constructing a confidence interval about a proportion *Random: The data come from a well-designed random sample or randomized experiment.∘ 10%: When sampling without replacement, check that n ≤ 0.10 N. *Large Counts: Both are at least 10.

3. *Random: The class took an SRS of 251 beads from the container. *10%: Because the class sampled without replacement, they need to check that there are at least 10(251) = 2510 beads in the population. Mr. Vignolini reveals that there are 3000 beads in the container. Large Counts: To use a Normal approximation for the sampling distribution of we need both np and n(1 − p) to be at least 10. Because we don’t know p, we check That is, the counts of successes (red beads) and failures (non-red beads) are both at least 10. All conditions are met, so it should be safe for the class to construct a confidence interval. Example 1: Let’s say a class’s sample had 107 red beads and 144 white beads. Check that the conditions for constructing a confidence interval for p are met. Notice that You don’t really need to calculate these values since they are just the number of successes and failures in the sample. In the previous example, we could address the Normal condition simply by saying, “The numbers of successes (107) and failures (144) in the sample are both at least 10.”

4. Constructing a Confidence Interval for p When the conditions are met, the sampling distribution of will be approximately Normal with meanThe figure below displays this distribution. Inference about a populationproportion p is based on the sampling distribution of Definition: When the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from data, the results is called the standard error of the statistic.

5. Constructing a Confidence Interval for p When the conditions are met, the sampling distribution of will be approximately Normal with meanThe figure below displays this distribution. Inference about a populationproportion p is based on the sampling distribution of We can use the general formula from the previous section to construct a confidence interval for an unknown population proportion p: statistic ± (critical value) · (standard deviation of statistic)

6. How can we use this information to find a confidence interval for p? The sample proportion is the statistic we use to estimate p. Doing so makes sense if the data came from a well-designed random sample or randomized experiment (the Random condition). When the standard deviation of a statistic is estimated from data, the result is called the standard error of the statistic.

7. Example 2: Use Table A or technology to find the critical value z * for an 80% confidence interval. Assume that the Large Counts condition is met.For an 80% confidence level, we need to capture the central 80% of the standardNormal distribution. In capturing the central 80%, we leave out 20%, or 10% in eachtail. So the desired critical value z * is the point with area 0.1 to its right under the standard Normal curve. The figure below shows the details in picture form. Search the body of Table A to find the point −z* with area 0.1 to its left. The closest entry is z = −1.28. (See the excerpt from Table A below.) So the critical value we want is z* = 1.28. Using technology: The command invNorm(area: 0.1, μ:0 σ = 1) gives z = −1.28. The critical value is z* = 1.28, which matches what we got from Table A.

8. One-Sample z Interval for a Population Proportion When the conditions are met, a C% confidence interval for the unknown proportion p is where z* is the critical value for the standard Normal curve with area C between – z* and z*.

9. Example 3: Mr. Vignolini’s class took an SRS of beads from the container and got 107 red beads and 144 white beads. a) Calculate and interpret a 90% confidence interval for p. We checked conditions for calculating the interval earlier. Our confidence interval has the formNow let’s find the critical value. From Table A, we look for the point with area 0.05 to its left.As the excerpt from Table A shows, this point is between z = −1.64 and z = −1.65. The calculator’s invNorm(area: 0.05, μ : 0, σ : 1) gives z = −1.645. So we use z * = 1.645 as our critical value.

10. b) Mr. Vignolini claims that exactly half of the beads in the container are red. Use your result from part (a) to comment on this claim. The confidence interval in part (a) gives a set of plausible values for the population proportion of red beads. Because 0.5 is not contained in the interval, it is not a plausible value for p. We have good reason to doubt Mr. Vignolini’s claim. We are 90% confident that the interval from 0.375 to 0.477 captures the true proportion of red beads in Mr. Vignolini’s container.

11. State: What parameter do you want to estimate, and at what confidence level? Plan: Identify the appropriate inference method. Check conditions. Do: If the conditions are met, perform calculations. Conclude: Interpret your interval in the context of the problem. Confidence Intervals: A Four-Step Process AP EXAM TIP: If a free-response question asks you to construct and interpret a confidence interval, you are expected to do the entire four step process. That includes clearly defining the parameter and checking conditions. Confidence Intervals: A Four-Step Process

12. Example 4: Example 4: The Gallup Youth Survey asked a random sample of 439 U.S. teens aged 13 to 17 whether they thought young people should wait to have sex until marriage. Of the sample, 246 said “Yes.” Construct and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all teens who would say “Yes” if asked this question. STATE: We want to estimate the actual proportion p of all 13- to 17-year-olds in the United States who would say that young people should wait to have sex until they get married at a 95% confidence level. PLAN: We should use a one-sample z interval for p if the conditions are met. Random: Gallup surveyed a random sample of U.S. teens. 10%: Because Gallup is sampling without replacement, we need to check the 10% condition: there are at least 10(439) = 4390 U.S. teens aged 13 to 17. Large Counts: We check the counts of “successes” and “failures”: Therefore the sampling distribution of sample proportions is approximately normal.

13. DO: The sample statistic is A 95% confidence interval for p is given by CONCLUDE: We are 95% confident that the interval from 0.514 to 0.606 captures the true proportion of 13- to 17-year-olds in the United States who would say that teens should wait until marriage to have sex.

14. AP EXAM TIPS: 1. If a free-response question asks you to construct and interpret a confidence interval, you are expected to do the entire four step process. That includes clearly defining the parameter and checking conditions. 2. You may use your calculator to compute a confidence interval on the AP E xam. But there’s a risk involved. If you just give the calculator answer with no work, you’ll get either full credit for the “Do” step (if the interval is correct) or no credit (if it’s wrong). If you opt for the calculator-only method, be sure to name the procedure (e.g., one-proportion z interval)and to give the interval (e.g., 0.514 to 0.607).

15. The margin of error (ME) in the confidence interval for p is z* is the standard Normal critical value for the level of confidence we want. Choosing the Sample Size In planning a study, we may want to choose a sample size that allows us to estimate a population proportion within a given margin of error.

16. To determine the sample size n that will yield a level C confidence interval for a population proportion p with a maximum margin of error ME, solve the following inequality for n: Sample Size for Desired Margin of Error

17. Example 5: A company has received complaints about its customer service. The managers intend to hire a consultant to carry out a survey of customers. Before contacting the consultant, the company president wants some idea of the sample size that she will be required to pay for. One critical question is the degree of satisfaction with the company’s customer service, measured on a 5-point scale. The president wants to estimate the proportion p of customers who are satisfied (that is, who choose either “somewhat satisfied” or “very satisfied,” the two highest levels on the 5-point scale). She decides that she wants the estimate to be within 3% (0.03) at a 95% confidence level. How large a sample is needed? Determine the sample size needed to estimate p within 0.03 with 95% confidence. The critical value for 95% confidence is z* = 1.96. We have no idea about the true proportion p of satisfied customers, so we decide to use = 0.5 as our guess. Because the company president wants a margin of error of no more than 0.03, we need to solve the inequality for n. Multiplying both sides by the square root of n and then dividing both sides by 0.03 yields

18. Squaring both sides gives We round up to 1068 respondents to ensure the margin of error is no more than 3%.