1. Democratization in the late twentieth century By Samuel D. Huntington Li Yuan CHEN/Fumie NAKAMURA

2. Chapter 1 What?

3.  Beginning: At twenty-five minutes after midnight, Thursday, April 25, 1974, in Lisbon, Portugal.  The following 15 years : - Scope: Portugal → Global - 30 countries: Authoritarianism → Democracy - A score of other countries were also affected by the democratic wave.

4. Chapter 1What? The meaning of democracy

5. Concept of Democracy: As a form of government  Old Usage: Greek Philosophers  Modern Usage: (mid-20c)terms of sources of authority for government, purpose served by government, and procedures for constituting government.

6.  Central Procedure of Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter (1942) Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy : Selection of leaders through competitive elections by the people they govern.  How to define political system as democracy pp. 7 - Robert Dahl: two dimensions---Contestation and participation

7. The critical point in the process of democracy: pp. 9  The replacement of a government that was not chosen this way by one that is selected in a free, open, and fair election.

8. Several other points about defining democracy  1. The definition of democracy in terms of elections is a minimal definition.  2. Conceivably a society could choose its political leaders through democratic means, but these political leaders might not exercise real power.  3. The fragility or stability of a democratic political system.  4. Whether to treat democracy and nondemocracy as a dichotomous or continuous variable.  5. Nondemocratic regimes do not have electoral competition and widespread voting participation.

9. TotalitarianAuthoritarianism A single party, led by one manSingle leader or small group of leaders, No party or weak party A pervasive and powerful secret police No mass mobilization A highly developed ideology/ideal society No ideology Government control mass communication and economic organizations Limited government

10. Chapter 1 What? The waves of democratization

11. Initial push in the West  English Revolution The fundamental Orders of Connecticut JANUARY 14,1639 “First written constitution of modern democracy.”

12. Waves Year First, long wave of democratization1828-1926 First reverse wave1922-1942 Second, short wave of democratization 1943-1962 Third wave of democratization1971-

13. The third wave of democratization  First: Southern Europe  Late 1970s: move to Latin America also in Asia.  The end of the decade: engulfed the communist world.  The movement toward democracy was a global one.  The democratization waves and the reverse waves suggest a two-step-forward, one- step backward pattern.

15. Chapter 1 What? The issues of democratization

16.  1. Political democracy is closely associated with freedom of the individual.  2. Political stability and form of government are two different variables.  3. The spread of democracy has implications for international relations.  The future of democracy in the world is special importance to Americans.

17. Ch.2 “WHY”

18. 4 Possible Explanations of Democratization Waves

19. Single Cause  One single cause(A) can cause a democratization(x) in multiple countries. For example: a rise of a new superpower, major change in international distribution of power, war.

20. Parallel Development  Democratization could be caused by similar developments in the same independent variables (a1, a2…)  For example: when a country has reached a certain level of GNP, it is likely to develop democracy.

21. Snowballing  An important cause for democratization occurs in one country (a1) and it triggers further democratization movements in different countries. (Not simultaneously.)

22. Prevailing Nostrum  The specific individual cause of political change (a1 to d4) & common set of political beliefs (z=nostrum to the existing problems) produce similar responses (x1, x2..).  Simultaneous.

24.  Dependent Variable: Democratization =dynamic, complex. ≠ Democracy  What could be the Independent variable?

26.  1) Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma  2) Global Economic Development of the 1960s  3) Religious Changes  4) Policies of “External Actors” (Europe and US, etc.)  5) ”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects

27. 1)Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma  Authoritarianism: justified by nationalism and ideology.  The victory of the Western Allies in WWII(cause of the second wave) : People came to accept the ideas of democracy  For example;  One-party system (i.e. Communist regime)

28. 2)Global Economic Development of the 1960s  3 economic factors that affected the third wave:  1) the oil price hikes and Marxist-Leninist constraints  2) by the 1970s many countries had achieved overall levels of economic development that provided an economic basis for democracy  3) rapid economic growth in some countries destabilized authoritarian regimes

29. 3)Religious Changes  Strong correlation exists between Western Christianity and democracy.  I.e. Christianity expanded in South Korea in the 1960s to 70s.  Christianity offered a surer doctrinal and institutional basis for opposing political repression.  Economic growth of catholic countries  Change “within” Catholic Church itself  Efforts by Pope on global base, and more locally by individual priests

30. 4)Policies of “External Actors”  Governments and institutions of external to a country can influence democratization.  European institutions  US: policy toward promotion of human rights in other countries became more active in early 70s.  Carter and Reagan administration  Soviet Union  Mikhail Gorbachev

31. 5)”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects  Contagion, diffusion, or snowballing, or domino effect of democratization from one country to another.  It shows that it can be done and stimulate the second movement.  It shows HOW it can be done.  Expansion of global communication was necessary.

32. To summarize…  Multiple factors contributed to the breakdown or weakening of authoritarian regimes during 1970s and 1980s.  Variety of factors influenced the emergence of democratic regimes during this period.  Last but not least…Democracies are created not by causes but by causers. Political leaders and publics have to act.