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Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20091 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator.

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Presentation on theme: "Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20091 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator."— Presentation transcript:

1 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20091 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case

2 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20092 Generally assumes current laws and regulations –provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire) –excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation is not included) –some grey areas adopts proposed regulations that are not yet final, in order to inform the likely implementation of a statute adds a premium to the capital cost of CO 2 -intensive technologies to reflect market behavior regarding possible CO 2 regulation assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable building new energy infrastructure and resource extraction Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial in the next decade or so –includes cost and efficiency improvements from learning, but not revolutionary or breakthrough technologies How does the AEO2010 reference case handle public policy and technology?

3 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20093 Extended projection period to 2035 Changes in Federal and State laws and regulations –revised handling of fuel economy standards to reflect the proposal for light-duty vehicles in model years 2012-2016 –assumes permission will be granted to extend nuclear power unit operating licenses beyond 60 years; no retirements through 2035 Revised capital costs for capital-intensive projects –overnight costs for nuclear and coal power up 10-20% Changes to assumptions about oil and gas resource base –updated characterization of natural gas shales, reflecting evolution of shale gas resources and technology –new lower-48 onshore oil and gas supply submodule Key updates included in the AEO2010 reference case

4 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20094 Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2010 will include a wide range of prices 2008 dollars per barrel Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 High oil price Low oil price AEO2010 reference ProjectionsHistory AEO2009 reference

5 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20095 Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection ProjectionsHistory Oil and natural gas prices Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Crude oil U.S. natural gas wellhead Ratio of oil price to natural gas price 2008 dollars per million Btu

6 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20096 Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035 quadrillion Btu Coal Liquid fuels Natural gas ProjectionsHistory Nuclear Liquid biofuels Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

7 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20097 Energy and CO 2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 Energy per capita Energy per dollar GDP ProjectionsHistory CO 2 per dollar GDP Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

8 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20098 Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 15% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger Constant efficiency Constant intensity Efficiency change Structural change AEO2010 reference case 192 133 115 quadrillion Btu Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

9 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 20099 U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is reduced by increased domestic production and greater fuel efficiency million barrels per day Consumption Production Net imports ProjectionsHistory AEO2010 reference case Updated AEO2009 reference case 40%45% 57%60% Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

10 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200910 Biofuels meet most of the growth in liquid fuels supply million barrels per day ProjectionsHistory Natural gas plant liquids Biofuels including imports Petroleum supply Net petroleum imports Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

11 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200911 billion gallon-equivalents Biofuels grow, but fall short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022, exceed it in 2035 Legislated RFS in 2022 RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7) Biodiesel Other feedstocks Biomass-to- liquids Net ethanol imports Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Renewable diesel Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

12 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200912 New light duty vehicle efficiency reaches 40 mpg by 2035 miles per gallon AEO2009 reference case Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

13 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200913 millions Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 ProjectionsHistory Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

14 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200914 Natural gas wellhead price is projected to rise from low levels experienced during 2008-2009 recession 2008 dollars per thousand cubic feet ProjectionsHistory AEO2010 reference case Updated AEO2009 reference case Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

15 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200915 Import share of natural gas supply declines as domestic supply grows trillion cubic feet Consumption Domestic supply Net imports ProjectionsHistory AEO2010 reference case Updated AEO2009 reference case 2% 6% 13% Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

16 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200916 Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources Source: U.S. Geological Service, Mineral Management Service, private data, and EIA. trillion cubic feet Unproved shale gas & other unconventional Unproved conventional (including Alaska*) Proved reserves (all types & locations) * Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation.

17 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200917 Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs trillion cubic feet Alaska Non-associated offshore ProjectionsHistory Associated with oil Coalbed methane Net imports Non-associated onshore Shale gas Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

18 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200918 Growth in electricity use continues to slow 3-year rolling average percent growth Projections History Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2008 0.9 2008-2035 1.0 Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

19 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200919 Natural gas and renewables account for the majority of capacity additions from 2008 to 2035 Coal 312 (31%) Natural gas 338 (33%) Hydropower* 99 (10%) Nuclear 101 (10%) Other renewables 40 (4%) Other 119 (12%) * Includes pumped storage Coal 31 (12%) Natural gas 116 (46%) Hydropower* 1 (0.4%) Nuclear 8 (3%) Other renewables 92 (37%) Other 2 (1%) 2008 capacityCapacity additions 2008 to 2035 1,008 gigawatts 250 gigawatts Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

20 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200920 Renewables gain electricity market share; coal share declines billion kilowatthours and percent shares Natural gas Renewable ProjectionsHistory Nuclear Oil and other Coal 48.5 43.8 21.4 20.8 19.617.1 9.1 17.0 1.4 1.5 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

21 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200921 Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 41% of total electricity generation growth from 2008 to 2035 billion kilowatthours Wind ProjectionsHistory Solar Biomass Geothermal Waste Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

22 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200922 0.3% per year 8.7% growth Assuming no new policies, growth in energy-related CO 2 is driven by electricity and transportation fuel use Transportation 1,925 (33%) Buildings and Industrial 1,530 (26%) Electric Power 2,359 (41%) 2008 5,814 million metric tons 2035 6,320 million metric tons Transportation 2,115 (33%) Buildings and Industrial 1,571 (25%) Electric Power 2,634 (42%) Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

23 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200923 Recent Federal and State policies, and rising energy prices, moderate growth in energy consumption and shift it to renewable fuels U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2035 –growth in overall liquids demand is met by biofuels, and ethanol accounts for >17% of gasoline consumption by 2035 –U.S. reliance on imported oil as a share of U.S. liquids use, declines to 45% over the next 25 years Shale gas provides the majority of growth in gas supply Energy-related CO 2 emissions grow 0.3% per year, absent any new policies to limit emissions Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

24 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 200924 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html Monthly Energy Review www.eia.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html U.S. Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov

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