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The Great Northern Pipeline Debate Stephen J. Wuori Group Vice President Planning and Development Arctic Gas Symposium November 30, 2001 Houston, Texas
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Enbridge Midcoast Energy Inc. operates gas gathering, distribution and processing facilities in nine states Enbridge: North & South America
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Northern Pipeline Development The Bottom Line n Project economics must be positive and robust n The Core Producers will direct the development n Political / Social issues must be resolved n Either pipeline route can be effectively constructed and operated n Only one pipeline route will be developed in the near term
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North American Natural Gas Reserves Northern Frontier Arctic Islands Eastern Canada Eastern US Gulf of Mexico Gulf Coast US Heartland Rockies and West Western Canada Base Map Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates
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Expected Regional Gas Balances and Flow Changes – 2000 to 2010 Net Change in Supply/ Demand Balance (bcf/day) Incremental Gas Flows (bcf/day) XX 3.7 -0.7 1.3 1.5 6.3 0.3 0.8. 2.1 1.1 -2.5 0.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.0 -0.8 0.4 0.5 -2.3 1.5 -2.2 0.1 -2.6 1.0 -0.7 1.5 1.2 0.2 4.2 1.9 0.6 0.5 0.8
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Who’s Who and the Routes Alaska Gas Producers (AGP) State of Alaska Alaska Others MD Core Producers(MD 4) MD Explorers (MD Others) NWT Others
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Route Cost & Toll Comparison Enbridge is route neutral Safety and environmental excellence is a baseline requirement Alaska to Lower 48 Market South North Total Project Cost (US$billions) 17.215.1 Notional tolls (US$/mcf) 2.392.07 (Far North O&G Conference on Sept. 20, ’01) Both Routes are Constructable Operable Mackenzie Valley (Stand Alone) Total Project Cost (US$billions) 2.3 Notional tolls (US$/mcf) 0.95 Prudhoe Bay Inuvik Norman Wells Anchorage Whitehorse Yellowknife Edmonton
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Prudhoe Bay Inuvik Norman Wells Anchorage Whitehorse Yellowknife Edmonton “Northern” Pipeline Challenges Unique “Northern” P/L Issues Enbridge Northern Expertise Experience Applied to the Future Enbridge is route neutral
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Northern Expertise n Enbridge has substantial experience constructing and operating northern infrastructure projects…. Alaska Inuvik Norman Wells Zama Inuvik Gas Norman Wells Pipeline
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Over the Top Enbridge Proposed Location Near to Shore
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The “Measured Approach” Build two smaller lines “consecutively” in the same right-of-way
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The “Measured Approach” BENEFITS –Cost estimates 48-inch vs. 2x36-inch within 7% –Reduced project risks –Socio-economic benefits –Improved schedule for first gas to market –Pipeline capacity better matched to market needs Build two smaller lines “consecutively” in the same right-of-way
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Success requires: n Continental decision-making n Robust project economics n A Producer decision to proceed n Common understanding n Cooperation of all stakeholders
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The Great Northern Pipeline Debate Stephen J. Wuori Group Vice President Planning and Development Arctic Gas Symposium November 30, 2001 Houston, Texas
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