1. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 1 Introduction to the New Features in the Upcoming Glacier Release Glacier Peak, Washington 3,213 Meters (10,541 Feet) Latest Eruptions: 200-300 years ago; 1,000-1,800 years ago; 1,800-2,800 years ago

2. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 2 Glacier (Version 9.5) Currently available as a beta version –On our website and here at the conference Depending on the outcome of the beta and our own ongoing testing and verification, final release will be sometime this summer (early July to mid-August).

3. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 3 Overview of Major New Features Glacier has 10 new elements! Three new function elements in basic GoldSim: –Splitter –Allocator –History Generator Financial Module: a new module with 5 new elements A new concept (and element): the SubModel New functions to dynamically extract vectors from matrices and items from vectors In addition, the following element will be added (but is not in the current beta): –Interrupt element

4. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 4 Splitter Element A simple element that splits an incoming signal based on specified set of fractions –Typically will be used for flows (e.g., material, water). –Can also split discrete change signals –Can have a user-specified number of outputs –Fractions do not need to add to 1 –Input signal and Fractions can change with time –Will discuss further in advanced training session tomorrow (Water Balance Modelling Techniques)

5. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 5

6. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 6 Allocator Element An element that allocates an incoming signal based on specified set of demands and priorities –Typically will be used for flows (e.g., material, water). –Can also allocate discrete change signals –Can have a user-specified number of outputs –Input Signal, Demands and Priorities can change with time –Will discuss further in advanced training session tomorrow (Water Balance Modelling Techniques)

7. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 7

8. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 8 History Generator Element A complex and powerful new element that generates stochastic time series given some statistical inputs (e.g., growth rate, volatility) –Can simulate a variety of history types –Can simulate geometric growth, random walks, and random movement around a target –Can simulate correlated arrays of stochastic variables (by specifying a correlation

9. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 9

10. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 10 Random Walks: High and Low Volatility

11. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 11 Random Walks: With and Without Reversion to a Constant Target

12. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 12 Geometric Growth: High and Low Volatility

13. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 13 Volatile Geometric Growth: Multiple Realizations

14. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 14 Random Walk That Tracks a Dynamic Target: With and Without Time Lag

15. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 15 Financial Module A new module for simulating financial systems. Provides 5 new elements: –Fund: Simulates accounts with interest, deposits and withdrawals. –Cash Flow: Computes the NPV and IRR of a series of cash flows. Used to model the future return of projects and business ventures –Investment: Simulates investments with purchases and sales –Option: Simulates different types of financial options –Insurance: Simulates claims against an insurance policy

16. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 16 Accessing and Modifying Currencies New menu option to make this easier

17. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 17 Interrupt element This element will probably be in Glacier (but it is not in the beta) Used for debugging and user warnings The element is triggered by a condition or event –When triggered, the model pauses and displays A user-defined message User-defined options (buttons) for proceeding –Continue –End realization –End simulation –Investigate Outputs –Cumulative number of time triggered –A discrete event whenever triggered

18. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 18

19. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 19 New Array Functions GetItem(vector, row) GetItem(matrix, row, col) GetRow(matrix, row) GetCol(matrix, col) where –vector and matrix are output names (links) –row and column are integer values (constants or links)

20. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 20

21. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 21 The Concept of a Submodel Element What does a GoldSim element actually do? –Takes inputs –Produces outputs –It may have a random component to its behavior (e.g. Stochastic elements). What could you do if you were able to take an entire GoldSim model and embed it as one element within a parent model? –The inner model could either: Do a deterministic simulation, Do a Monte Carlo simulation, or Do an optimization –The inner model could be either dynamic or static The Glacier release of GoldSim will provide this capability. The next few slides illustrate some potential applications…

22. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 22 Uncertainty Analysis Imagine a model of a reliability system… –The system undergoes random failures and variable repair times, etc. –You can use GoldSim to estimate its reliability, availability, throughput, etc. But what if you are uncertain about some of its key input parameters? –Can you estimate its performance? –Can you develop confidence bounds on your estimate? –Can you decide whether to go into production vs doing more testing?

23. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 23 Uncertainty Analysis (cont) You can address these issues by using a ‘double Monte Carlo’ analysis: –An outer Monte Carlo loop samples the uncertain system parameters. –An inner Monte Carlo loop simulates the system’s random performance given specific values for the uncertain variables. –The result: an understanding of the uncertainty in the system’s performance, e.g. “The probability that the mean warranty return rate will exceed 5%”.

24. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 24 Optimizing a Random (or Uncertain) System What is the optimum design for a system that is subject to random effects? –The optimum for one possible set of random effects may be quite different from the optimum for another set. –So you need to evaluate your objective function over the full range of possible performance (i.e., to get a PDF for the objective function). –The true optimum design has to be based on STATISTICS for the objective function, eg: “Minimize the expected total lifecycle cost while allowing no more than a 2% likelihood of a catastrophic failure” An optimizing parent can use a Submodel element to calculate the desired statistic(s) to optimize.

25. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 25 Dynamic Optimization What if your model needs to make an optimal decision at one or more points in time during a simulation? –Set up a static submodel that will find the optimal solution and return it to the main model.

26. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 26 Example: Optimize the Life-Cycle Performance of a Manufactured Component (SubModel1.gsm)

27. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 27 We need your help! Although it is not visible, much of the underlying GoldSim framework was modified for Glacier to set the stage for further development We need you to run your real-world models in the Glacier beta –Install the beta parallel to your current GoldSim version and save your models using a different name (so you don’t lose them) –Let us know if your models loaded and ran successfully (generating the same results)

28. GoldSim Technology Group LLC, 2006 Slide 28 Looking Ahead: Hood Tentative Release Date: 1 st Quarter 2007 Mt Hood, Oregon 3,429 Meters (11,249 Feet) Probable Features : –Re-designed Dashboards with more features and options –“Components”. These are Containers that can be locked and have a user-defined custom interface. This would effectively allow users to build (and easily distribute) custom elements. –Correlation matrices