1. St. Louis MSA Employment Outlook Methods and Background

2. LEMA Objectives Estimate Employment (Labor Demand & Wages Provide Baseline Projections Conduct Policy Simulations & Assess Impacts Education model

3. FAPRI-Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Agricultural Baselines and Policy Simulations for the U.S. Congress & Department of Agriculture as well as European Union Commission Formal Partnerships With Ireland, Africa, and the United Nations Recognized Leader in Econometric Modeling and Policy Analysis USDA ‘Secretary’s’ Award American Agricultural Economics Assoc. Policy Award

4. Labor Supply & Demand D: Labor Market Demand S: Education & Training Now

5. Model and Outreach Development Identify & Collect Data Conduct Employer Interviews Refine Model Specification Initiate Collaboration Between LEMA & MERIC Estimate Initial Model Continue Outreach Efforts

6. Baseline Conferences Discuss Economic Assumptions Present Local, State, National Trends Review Projections Receive Expert Criticism & Comment Document & Analyze Feedback Publish & Distribute Annual Baseline Conduct Policy Simulations

7. Steps in Econometric Modeling -- The Never Ending Story Model Specification Model Estimation Model Testing & Validation Data Application Baseline projections Policy simulation

8. The Policy Simulation Process The LEMA Model Alternative Policy Variable Values Baseline Exogenous Values Baseline Forecast Policy Effect = Alternative minus Baseline Alternative Forecast

9. The Baseline/Scenario Approach With Assistance Without Assistance

10. Total Modeled Employment Last 10 years Grew at ~10,600 per year Only 11,000 in Projection

11. Employment by Category

12. Motor Vehicles and Motor Vehicle Equipment: SIC 371

13. Future Course of Action Labor supply & wage models Occupational demand and wage models Policy simulations Education model