1. Conceptual Modeling as a Tool for Developing a Watershed Management Plan An aid to understanding linkages Barbara Washburn California Watershed Assessment Manual Team Ecotoxicology Program Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment

2. What is a conceptual model? A diagrammatic or narrative representation of how a system works A diagrammatic or narrative representation of how a system works A visual model representing causal relationships A visual model representing causal relationships Comes in many forms Comes in many forms A conceptual model of the nitrogen cycle

3. Key Components of a Model Stressors Issues Natural or anthropogenic factors (e.g., climate cycles, flow rates) or attributes (e.g., geomorphology) that might be causing the changes about with you are concerned. The part of the watershed about which you are most concerned. Ex: algae growing in creek Source of Stressors or Causes Natural or human factors, such as farming, dams, urban development, off-road vehicle use, that produce the stressors.

4. Abandoned Mines Agriculture Methyl- mercury Nutrients Sediment Bacteria & Algal growth Hg in Fish Geothermal Springs Sample Conceptual Model Boxes indicate watershed conditions and processes, arrows indicate possible relationships. When building the model, start with the issue of concern and work backwards.

5. How conceptual models support adaptive management BEGIN HERE Watershed adaptive management Watershed Assessment Watershed Management Plan Implementation of Plan, ex: changes in policy, restoration projects Monitoring of Ecosystem and Management Response Issue Identification Data Collection& Analysis Conceptual Modeling Evaluation of Ecosystem Conditions& Management Actions

6. Suggested steps for developing a conceptual model

7. 1. Begin by formulating your questions or issue of concern What do you care about? What do you care about? Decline in a species of concern Decline in a species of concern Loss of riparian habitat and associated recreational opportunities Loss of riparian habitat and associated recreational opportunities Loss of groundwater recharge Loss of groundwater recharge Increase in the number or extent of algal blooms Increase in the number or extent of algal blooms Increase in the distribution of invasive plants Increase in the distribution of invasive plants

8. 2. Consider the stressors that might affect the issue of concern.…. For example, a decline in the salmon population. Examples for salmon: Increased fines in spawning gravel Increased fines in spawning gravel High water temperatures High water temperatures Reduced flows Reduced flows Increased predation of young Increased predation of young Loss of canopy cover Loss of canopy cover

9. 3. Consider the drivers or sources of the stressors Grazing Grazing New housing development New housing development Industrial activity Industrial activity Roads Roads Climate change Climate change

10. “Sources of Stressors” can be very generally defined or more specifically described, as below.

11. Ecosystem-based Conceptual Model Reid and Zeimer Stressors Issue

12. Ecosystem-based Conceptual Model Reid and Zeimer Sources of Stressors

13. Management Oriented Model Reduced woody debris Altered riparian vegetation Increased water temperature Disappearing Salmon Altered spawning gravel Increased predation Reduced number mature salmon Fishing Logging Grazing Urbanization Sources of Stressors Effects on assessment endpoint Stressors Plausible process or mechanism Sources of Stressors Plausible process or mechanism Effects on assessment endpoint Plausible process or mechanism ? ? ?

14. Federal, State, and especially Local Policies influence what can be done to mitigate the sources of stress Endangered Species Act, NPDES permits, 404 Permit, Tree Ordinance, Trails Plan, General Plan Guidelines, other local guidelines Sources of Stressors Loss of Riparian Buffer Stressor Consideration of policy important when developing the management plan Urbanization

15. Ag Runoff Septic Systems Lawn Care Increased N/P In Waterway Increased algal blooms Reduced Dissolved Oxygen Toxins from Algae Increased Fish Kills Sources Proximate Stressor Effect Ultimate Stressor Soil Local ordinances Homeowners, businesses, golf courses Regulations for Hog farms USDA/RCD, NRCS, agricultural practices Policy

16. Summary - developing a conceptual model of the watershed Develop an model focused on the issue of concern, what is the problem(s)? Develop an model focused on the issue of concern, what is the problem(s)? Add: what are the controllable factors; identify the key stressors Add: what are the controllable factors; identify the key stressors Add: the causes or sources of these stressors Add: the causes or sources of these stressors When you get ready to develop the management plan, consider the local policies that could be changed to reduce the impacts or improve the situation (the issues of concern) When you get ready to develop the management plan, consider the local policies that could be changed to reduce the impacts or improve the situation (the issues of concern)

17. Resources for Building Conceptual Models The CADDIS System The CADDIS System www.epa.gov/caddis OR http://caddis.tetratech- ffx.com (username & password are both “public”) www.epa.gov/caddis OR http://caddis.tetratech- ffx.com (username & password are both “public”)http://caddis.tetratech- ffx.comhttp://caddis.tetratech- ffx.com World Wildlife Fund World Wildlife Fund http://assets.panda.org/downloads/ http://assets.panda.org/downloads/ 1_4_conceptual_model_11_08_05.pdf

18. Next, develop a sample conceptual model for a single Laguna Creek issue Issue: concern about flooding in Laguna Creek watershed Issue: concern about flooding in Laguna Creek watershed

19. After that…… Develop a conceptual model in small groups Guiding Principles Guiding Principles Identify the issue of concern Identify the issue of concern Select a recorder and spokesperson Select a recorder and spokesperson Build a conceptual model Build a conceptual model Get input from everyone at the table Get input from everyone at the table Report back to the group within 45 minutes Report back to the group within 45 minutes

20. Management Oriented Model Reduced woody debris Altered riparian vegetation Increased water temperature Disappearing Salmon Altered spawning gravel Increased predation Reduced number mature salmon Fishing Logging Grazing Urbanization Sources of Stressors Effects on assessment endpoint Stressors Plausible process or mechanism Sources of Stressors Plausible process or mechanism Effects on assessment endpoint Plausible process or mechanism