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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e M C I NTIRE I NVESTMENT I NSTITUTE A T THE U NIVERSITY OF V IRGINIA Prepared by Kevin Wang (Manager)| January 31, 2013 Long Pitch: Generac Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: GNRC) 1
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e P RESENTATION O UTLINE 2 Company Overview Financials Thesis Points –Misperception –VAR Risks Questions
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e O VERVIEW Founded in 1959, GNRC is a manufacturer of backup power products –Residential –Light commercial –Industrial Bought in 2006 by CCMP Capital of NY Went public in 2010 1,500 employees 3
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e O VERVIEW 4
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e F INANCIALS Price: $37.18 (14%) Market Cap: 2.503 B P/E (ttm): 7.56 PEG: 0.96 Beta: 0.66 52 Week: $18.18 - $39.18 EPS: 4.82 ROE: 57.06 % ROA: 22.49 % 5 * Data from Yahoo Finance and Ycharts.com
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS P OINTS Strong organic growth and expansion Seasonal trends Strong tailwinds: short and long run 6
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1: G ROWTH AND E XPANSION Company has doubled in five years –Net sales from $550 million to $1 billion –Net sales increased by 25.6 %, commercial and industrial sales by 43.8 %, gross profit margin by 4.05 % from Q3 in ’11 Penetration of 2.5 %, extremely unsaturated –Increase of 1 % translates into $2 billion –Market expected to with a 4.0 % CAGR for next 5 years 7
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 8
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 9
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 10
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 11
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 12
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 13
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #1 Acquired Magnum in 2011, #1 provider of light towers Acquired Ottomotores UK Ltd. in November for $46.5 million in cash –Latin America market, generated $81.6 million in revenues last year Over 100 dealers were added in 35 countries over the last 2 years 5 % of revenue is outside the US 14
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #2: S EASONAL T RENDS 15
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e M ISPERCEPTION Due to Sandy, from its low in September to its peak in November, GNRC stock jumped 80% 16
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e M ISPERCEPTION Generac’s rise often outlasts the winter season as the subsequent quarterly earnings reflects good earnings and boosts investor’s confidence During the Q3 Conference Call, CFO York Ragen said that the “afterglow can last between six and twelve months after this type of event [Sandy].” 17
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e M ISPERCEPTION : VAR Tavia, representative for Home Depot (general) – It was a “first come, first serve” basis in which “some stores didn’t even try to log” in the generators when they arrived since “there was no time.” Dennis, representative for Home Depot (Milton, NJ) – Has worked there for 13 years and never had this degree of demand. People traveled from around the state for the portable generators and 1000 were sold out as soon as they got in. Christine, representative for Lowe’s (general) – There is still a demand even after generators were sold out and they are still in the process of restocking 18
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e M ISPERCEPTION 19
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3: T AILWINDS Next Earnings Report: February 14 –Increased sales growth guidance for full year to a low 40 % from a low 30 % –Increased EBITDA for full year to a mid 30 % from a mid 30 % 20
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3 21 Net Sales
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3 Generac owns 70 % of the home generator market in natural gas 22
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3: 23
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3 Currently 30-50 % of the US power grid is 40 to 50 years old Undergrounding the grid would cost $4 trillion The number of power outages have increased due to technical power failures 24
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3: VAR 25
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3 In New Jersey, which suffered greatly due to Sandy, lawmakers are pushing for four varied proposals that would require all gas stations to be equipped with back-up generators. 26
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e T HESIS #3: VAR Mike Harris, IR for GNRC –After Katrina, FCC pushed to have cell towers have back up-generators but lost steam –After Sandy, there was a resurge Devon Lander, represents NY Assemblyman Steve Englebright –Governor is in favor of a bill that would require all new gas stations to have a back-up generator –Existing ones might need one based on criteria 27
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e C ONCLUSION Strong organic growth and expansion –15 % CAGR from 2000 to 2011 –Acquired Magnum and Ottomotores Seasonal trends –Positive correlation with winter –Aftermath of Sandy is still tangible Strong tailwinds –Expectations to beat earnings –Shift from diesel to natural gas –Increased blackouts due to aging power grid –Potential bills in NY, NJ, and from the FCC 28
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e R ISKS Bills may take a long time to pass or may not pass at all Government interference with power grids Lack of future storms that would drive demand 29
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M c I n t i r e I n v e s t m e n t I n s t i t u t e Q UESTIONS ? 30
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