1. The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation
TIMEFRAME: 25 minutes
Jean-Paul Rodrigue
Professor, Dept. of Global Studies & Geography, Hofstra University, New York, USA

2. Acknowledgements
Part of the background work undertaken with Dr. David Guerrero while a visiting professor at Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l'aménagement et des réseaux, SPLOTT (Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports, et Travail) research unit.
Guerrero, D. and J-P Rodrigue (2012) "The Waves of Containerization: Shifts in Global Maritime Transportation", submitted for publication in the Journal of Transport Geography.

3. The Benefits of Containerization
Transport Costs
Lower freight rates
Lower insurance rates
Minimal load unit
Inventory Costs
Lower storage costs
Lower packing and packaging costs
Faster inventory turnover
Service Level
Time reliability
Higher frequency

4. Containerization Growth Factors
Derived Economic and income growth
Globalization (outsourcing)
Fragmentation of production and consumption
Substitution Functional and geographical diffusion
New niches (commodities and cold chain)
Capture of bulk and break-bulk markets
Incidental
Trade imbalances
Repositioning of empty containers
Induced
Transshipment (hub, relay and interlining)

5. Multiplying Effects of Derived Demand on Container Transport Peaking?
Container Throughput
(520.4 Millions TEU)
Exports in current USD
($15.2 Trillion)
GDP in current USD
($63.4 Trillion)
Source: Population and GDP from World Bank, World Development Indicators. Exports from World Trade Organization. Container port throughput compiled from Containerization International.
World Population
(6.84 Billions)

6. Concentration of the Global Container Port System, 1970-2010?

7. Long, Medium and Short Waves of Containerization
Cycle
Traffic A
Long Wave
Maturity
Acceleration
Adoption
Peak Growth
Time
(Decades)
Medium Wave (A)
Short Wave (B) B
Years
Months

8. Long Waves of Containerization
Let’s ride this groovy wave…

9. Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA )Parameters of Global Container Ports, 1970-2010
Dissimilarity dendrogram for 7 classes
Fifth
Wave A
B.1 C
D.1
D.2 E
B.2
Dissimilarity Level
High
Low
Fourth
Wave
Third
Wave
Second
Wave
First
Wave

10. Evolution of Absolute and Relative Container Throughput by HCA Class, 1970-2010

11. The First Wave of Containerization, 1970 – The Pioneers of the Triad
Pioneer ports setting containerized operations in the economic triad (North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan).
Driver: Trade substitution

12. The Second Wave of Containerization, 1980 – Adoption in the Triad and its Periphery
Expansion of the triad and its trade partners (Caribbean, Mediterranean, Asian Tigers).
Driver: Adoption of
containerization

13. The Third Wave of Containerization, 1990 – Global Diffusion
Large diffusion in new markets (Latin America, Middle East / South Asia, Southeast Asia).
Driver: Setting of global
supply chains. Setting of
transshipment hubs.

14. The Fourth Wave of Containerization, 2000 – Global Standard
The container as the standard transport support of the global economy.
Driver: Expansion of global supply chains. China and transshipment hubs.

15. The Fifth Wave of Containerization, 2010 – Peak Growth
Peak growth and the setting of niches.
Driver: Spillover effect and new transshipment hubs.

16. Waves of Containerization, 1970-2010
Each wave lasts 8 to 10 years.
Hierarchical diffusion pattern.

17. Medium Waves of Containerization
I may have reached an inflection point…

18. Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2000-05
A shift in the growth dynamics of global container ports.

19. Shift-Share Analysis, World Container Ports, 2005-10

20. Shift-Share Analysis, Ports with the Highest Gain and Decline, 2000-05 and 2005-10
Highest gain
Shenzhen (+25.54) Shanghai (+23.21) Ningbo (+9.96) Tanjung Pelepas (+9.89) Qingdao (+7.35) Dubai (+6.60)
Guangzhou (+12.57) Ningbo (+12.34) Shanghai (+9.54) Tianjin (+7.28) Qingdao (+7.09) Lianyungang (+5.07)
Highest decline
Hong Kong (-22.15) Singapore (-15.34) Kaohsiung (-8.42) Manila (-6.05) Felixstowe (-5.50) Kobe (-4.26)
Hong Kong (-13.18) Kaohsiung (-7.16) Busan (-6.02) Hamburg (-5.99) Singapore (-5.61) Long Beach (-5.56)

21. Short Waves of Containerization
Am I a gateway or a transshipment hub?
Source:

22. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics
Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)
TI = ~0%
TI = 85%
TI = ~0%
TI = 95%

23. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics
Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports,

24. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics
Monthly Container Traffic (Jan 2005 =100)
TI = 24%
TI = 27%
TI = 44%
TI = 50%

25. Gateways and Transshipment Hubs: Different Short Wave Dynamics
Average Monthly Container Traffic Share, Selected Ports,

26. Transshipment Volume and Incidence by Major Ports, 2007-09
Asia – Mediterranean Corridor
Northern
Range
Caribbean Transshipment Triangle
East Asia Cluster

27. Conclusion: Reaching Peak Containerization?
The container, like any technical innovation, has a market and diffusion potential where a phase of maturity is eventually reached.
Five successive long waves of containerization.
Medium waves and inflection points.
Short waves and transshipment dynamics.