1. Cross Currents Arizona’s Economy Looks for Smooth Sailing Presented to: Arizona City Managers Association July 23, 2015 George Hammond, Ph.D. Director Economic and Business Research Center

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3. Visit the new Arizona’s Economy azeconomy.eller.arizona.edu

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5. Explore data for border economies. Arizona-Mexico Economic Indicators azmex.eller.arizona.edu

6. UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT mapazdashboard.arizona.edu 6

7. The Takeaways ► Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson are growing ► And there is a good chance that growth will improve ► Tucson struggles with fiscal drag ► Housing will gain momentum when population/household growth accelerates ► Gas prices are helping ► Trade with Mexico matters 7 UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

8. 8 Arizona and U.S. Job Growth UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT Over the Year

9. 9 Federal Procurement Spending UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT Arizona, $Billions $Billions

10. 10 Arizona Housing Permits UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

11. 11 House Price Indexes UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT FHFA

12. 12 Arizona and U.S. Job Growth UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

13. 13 Arizona Real Income and Sales Growth UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT Sales includes retail, restaurants & bars, food, and gas

14. 14 Gas Price Dividend UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT Some (Very) Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations Suppose gasoline prices fall by $1/gallon for one year ► Arizona gas stations sold 2.67 billion gallons in 2014…. ► Which means the drop in gas prices frees up roughly $2.67 billion for households to save/spend on other priorities ► On a per capita basis, that works out to: $368 Tucson MSA $385 Phoenix MSA $401 Arizona

15. 15 Phoenix MSA Gasoline Price UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

16. 16 Population Growth in 2014 UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT mapazdashboard.arizona.edu

17. 17 Arizona Population and Permits UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT

18. 18 Arizona Merchandise Export Growth UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA / ELLER COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT