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Investment Process CONFIDENTIAL – NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION January 2012
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Disclaimer This document is issued by Odin Capital Management Ltd. which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. This document is only made available to Professional Clients. Information contained in this document is provided on a strictly confidential basis only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor is it advice or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. Any offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell shall be made solely by a Confidential Offering Memorandum. This document is being circulated on a confidential basis only and may not be distributed to unauthorized parties and is subject to modification, updating, validation and amending. All investments involve a risk of loss of capital and no guarantee or representation can be made that an investment will generate profits or that an investment will not incur loss of invested capital. Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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Contents Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Investment objective & philosophy4 Market instruments5 Investment process outline6 1. Market observation & idea generation7 2. Quantitative & fundamental analysis8 2.a Assessment of economic condition9/10 2.a Environment case study 11 2.b Asset case study: gold12 2.c Technical timing models13 3. Discretionary trade execution14 3.a Case study: positive outcome15 3.b Case study: negative outcome16 Risk management17 Personnel backgrounds18/19
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4 Investment objective & philosophy Investment objective Superior risk-adjusted returns Limited downside volatility Negative correlation to equity indices Low correlation to hedge fund strategies Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Investment philosophy Cross-asset opportunistic approach with global macro outlook Complementary set of strategies in terms of risk and correlation Discretionary execution supported by quantitative strategies Active position monitoring for proactive risk management
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5 Market instruments EQUITY INDICES Eurostoxx 50 S&P 500 BONDS US 10-Year bonds German 10- Year Bund CURRENCIES EUR/USD GBP/USD COMMODITIES Gold Silver Wheat Corn Soybeans Crude Oil Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Currently trading in Eurex, Cme, Nymex, CBOT products. Other products may also be considered opportunistically HIGHLY LIQUID FUTURES, LONG AND SHORT
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6 Investment process outline 1. Idea generation 3. Trade decision & execution 2. Quantitative analysis, Fundamental reasoning Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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7 1. Market observation & idea generation Economic calendar review alongside market themes Monitor key metrics -Libor, Eurozone spreads, bond auctions, ratings, earnings, commodities reserves Constant daily monitoring of markets Discuss market with in-house investment managers & proprietary traders Identify suitable market and potential for trade idea Observe market response to environment Assess general risk appetite Identify most suitable market for trade idea Access to specialised prop traders, from segregated business with no access to client information or position Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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8 2. Quantitative & fundamental analysis Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Assessment of economic condition and risk appetite Stressed Vs non stressed Inflationary Vs non- inflationary Evaluation of cross market relationships Multi-factor model Assessment of leading & lagging relationships Short to medium term technical timing models Volatility/channel breakout models Short term oscillators Counter-trend / mean- reversion models
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9 2.A Assessment of economic condition Inflationary pressure Market sentiment Non-inflationary, non-stressed Inflationary, non- stressed Non-inflationary, stressed Inflationary, stressed Market characteristics depend on market environment Indicators are systematically combined to measure the degree of market stress and inflationary pressure Four major market conditions Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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10 2.A Assessment of economic condition Equity volatility Changes in market volume Economic indicators Factors used to gauge market sentiment Factors used to assess inflationary pressure Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Economic releases Interest rates Commodities CPI and PPI Employment CB interest rate decisions Shape of yield curve CRB Index Baltic Dry Index
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11 2.A Environment case study Equity Volatility Index >20 Stressed non-inflationary environment characteristics Negative correlation between bonds and equities FX and equities act as drivers for bond yields and commodities Increased correlations among markets and asset classes Characteristics Exploit leader-laggard relationships between equity indices and between equities & bonds Use equities and currencies to derive signals for bonds and commodities Eliminate correlated trades resulting in a more concentrated portfolio with less risk Models Persistence in short-term momentum Gaps and spikes Technical break-out models and high frequency oscillators for trade entry Profit-taking upon volatility rise, trailing stop loss levels with decreasing distance to stop Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential High volumesRisk of flight to quality Cross Asset Market specific
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12 2.B Case study: cross market relationships Major correlations known by market participants, but leading and lagging relationships depend on economic conditions Case study: Gold Stressed environment Non-stressed environment A leading market indicator with increasing inflationary expectations. Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Primary Factor Secondary factor EquitiesCurrencies Interest RatesCommodities Gold
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13 Description 2.C Technical timing models The identification of both general economic condition and market to trade are essential for the choice of timing model. Pattern recognition Type of models Trade entry in tight and congested ranges with decreasing volatility in anticipation of larger move Break through key levels defined by common technical formations, i.e. double or triple tops/bottoms Trade entry on the crossover of two custom moving averages Overbought and oversold areas identified using confidence bands Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Technical break-out High frequency oscillators Countertrend models exploiting shorter-term reversals
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14 3. Discretionary trade execution NEED TO COVER: Trade entry timing and size Active risk management: where we place and move stop / take profit Overnight risk: Important given investment horizon Flexibility Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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15 3. Case study: positive outcome TO COMPLETE. Winning trade example Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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16 3. Case study: negative outcome TO COMPLETE. LOSING TRADE EXAMPLE Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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17 Risk Management Objective of risk management approach Control and minimize loss of capital at portfolio and asset class levels, with limited portfolio volatility Portfolio volatility target Risk limit at portfolio level Volatility target: 12% p.a. with a 8-16% band Risk limit per asset class Review positions in case of 5% loss in any 20-day period Maximum 10% risk in any 20- day period Maximum 2% risk per day per asset class Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Position sizes adjusted if maximum risk level or portfolio volatility reached
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18 Personnel background Patrick Moerth, Founder & CIO Patrick Moerth is the founder and chief investment officer of Odin Capital Management Ltd. Patrick has more than 10 years professional trading and investment experience in the hedge fund industry. Prior to founding Odin Capital Management he was responsible for Global Macro and quantitative strategies in the hedge fund group of Credit Suisse in Zurich. Before that, he entered the industry as a hedge fund analyst at FERI Alternative Assets. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of St. Gallen, a European Masters of Business Sciences and a Masters of International Business from the University of Vienna. He passed all three levels of the CFA program and both levels of the CAIA program as well as the GARP FRM examination. He is the author of several hedge fund specific publications in recognized scientific journals and specialized books. Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential
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19 Tigrane Kibarian, Head of Risk and Operations Tigrane Kibarian is Head of Risk and Operations at Odin Capital Management Ltd, coming with over 8 years of market experience. He started his capital markets career on the equity trading floor of Goldman Sachs in London. Primarily in charge of equity strategy, he was then promoted into the portfolio transition management team responsible for large institutional portfolio restructurings across all asset classes. Risk management and technical excellence were critical in his success for the role. Following that experience, Tigrane started trading his own proprietary portfolio, active across liquid currency pairs and equity indices. Prior to capital markets, Tigrane worked as an auditor at Arthur Andersen and as a corporate financial professional at General Electric in both France and Italy. He has an excellent understanding of risk and financial markets, as well as good business acumen. Tigrane graduated from leading French Business School ESSEC. Odin Capital Management Ltd - Strictly confidential Personnel background
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