1. Labour Market Change and the Health, Safety and Well-being of Workers Paula Gough 17 th September 2015

2. Research Questions How has the likelihood of experiencing a work- related injury or illness changed over the period 2001 to 2012? What factors account for the injury & illness risk? Important because 47, 000 workers injured per year and 48,000 workers suffer work related illness Cost for workers, employers, state, economy (eg. 2013 occup injury benefits expenditure € 14.5M)

3. Context 2001 to 2012 encompasses boom and crisis. Remarkable changes in sectoral composition. Significant changes in terms of gender, nationality and age composition in workforce Changes in working time, security, etc. All likely to have an influence on work-related injury and illness.

4. Measures Occupational injuries –QNHS annual module collected by the CSO. Injury: asks if respondent had incurred any injuries at work (excluding commuting) over the previous year. Illness: asked whether respondent had suffered from any physical or mental health problems that were caused or made worse by their work. Analysis include any injury including no absence. Fatalities based on HSA statistics 2004-2013.

5. Trends over time

6. When was risk greatest?

7. Work Accidents & the Business Cycle: shouldn’t recession be worse for H&S? Insecurity strongly linked to poor psychological health (stress/anxiety). Cut backs in training. Employees less able to resist intensification/ pressure However international evidence that workplace accidents rates are pro-cyclical (US; UK).

8. Why could boom be bad for worker health and safety? Increased work intensity to meet higher demand: overtime, longer hours, working at greater speed. Less monitoring and supervision in period of expansion. Influx of inexperienced recruits. Workers more reluctant to report accidents or to take time off due to illness during periods of high unemployment.

9. Injury and illness: who is most at risk? Men Younger workers New recruits Those working variable work hours Night workers and shift workers Long hours – higher risk but this is due to greater exposure Per hour those working less than 20hrs a week

10. Occupational Injury

11. Occupational Injury Gender

12. Occupational Illness

13. Occupational illness Gender

14. Predicted Probabilities of Injury (modelled) by Age Group

15. New recruits have highest risk of injury Note: figures adjusted for exposure – Annual Equivalent Rate

16. Odds Ratio of Injury Risk: Job characteristics Analysis of QNHS modules for years 2001 to 2012 Tenure figures adjusted to create annualised rate. Estimates from models controlling for factors in figure 2

17. Injury risk by weekly work hours: Unadjusted and Full-time Equivalent

18. Which sectors most at risk of injury? Compared to service sector..... Note: model also controls for tenure, hours, employment status, shift work, night work. Controlling working conditions reduces risk.

19. Injury risk negatively related to inspection rate

20. Summary of results – macro: economic cycle and inspection rate Pro-cyclical: injuries higher in the boom period and lower in recession period. Tested whether this was due to the influx of inexperienced new recruits in boom period (not shown). Injury risk is highest in early months of job but boom effect remains for those with job tenures > 1yr Other influences: high work effort, low monitoring, inadequate training (no direct measures) Higher inspection rates significantly reduces odds of injury when all other factors controlled (1 unit increase in rate leads to 5% decrease in odds ratio)

21. Summary of results Worker Characteristics - who is most at risk? Men are 60% more likely to experience work related injuries than women (controlling for sector & job characteristics e.g. hours) The odds of injury decrease with age. Non-Irish workers were less likely to experience work related injury.

22. Summary - Sectoral Influences The risk of injury is persistently higher in construction, farming/forestry/fishing, health and industry, controlling for characteristics of workers Lower risk of injury during recession period (2008- 2012) in the agricultural, industry construction and retail sectors. In transport sector injuries risks were higher in recession than boom.

23. Summary: Job characteristics Longer hours of work increase injury risk Highly variable working hours were also linked to higher injury risks. (zero-hours contracts) Holding hours and sector constant self-employed do not have higher risk of non-fatal injury. Working shift pattern and at night increase injury risk Inexperienced workers higher risk (adjusting for exposure)

24. Policy Implications Recovery period - likely to be an increase in injury rates without countervailing actions. Inspection rates are positively associated with lower levels of injury (and ill health). The inspection rate has fallen since 2009, potential negative consequences. Importance of training and monitoring new recruits. Inform workers and employers of risks associated with long hours, shift hours and variable working.

25. Thank you