1. Bay/Bakool Deyr 2010/11 January 26, 2011 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2. FS Field Analysts travelled to all districts for field observations of crop, livestock and market situation Food Security information was collected through teleconferencing using enumerators, key informants and focus group. Nutrition data was obtained through partners and key informants Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations – Bay and Bakool

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bay Region : 2 Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay Agropastoral High Potential, Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential)  Primary sources of income of poor: self- employment, employment, sale of livestock & livestock products and sale of crops.  Primary sources of food of poor: own production and food purchase  Primary livelihood asset of poor: cattle, sheep/goats

4. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income Bakool Region : 1. Pastoral Livelihood (Southern Inland Pastoral)  Primary income sources of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products  Primary food sources of poor: food purchase  Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, sheep/goat and cattle 2. Agropastoral Livelihoods (Bay-Bakool Agropastoral Low Potential and Bakool Agropastoral)  Bay-Bakool Agropastoral: Main sources of income: the combination of agricultural labour, self- employment (firewood, charcoal and lime) and sale of livestock & livestock products. Main sources of food: own production (crop and livestock products) and purchase.  Bakool Agropastoral is predominantly pastoral. Main sources of income: livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (bush products) and agricultural labour. Main sources of food: purchase and own production.

5. Overall statement: Climate was unfavourable in Bay and Bakool regions. The rains were extremely poor in most areas of the two regions Start of Deyr rainy season: Effectively started in the third decade of October but interrupted by a long dry spell in November; restarted on the third decade of November in localized areas of Bay and some insignificant rainfall was experienced in Bakool region. Temporal and spatial distribution: Rainfall performance in terms of intensity and duration, distribution and coverage was below normal in both regions. In most areas of the two regions Deyr rains were 20-40% of normal as indicated by the satellite imagery and confirmed by the field staff; pockets of the two regions received 60-80% of normal rainfall. Dry spell from 1 st dekad of November up to the end of 2 nd dekad of December with one to two localised showers in the last dekad of December without a significant impact on crop and pasture conditions. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bay NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

7. Climate Vegetation Conditions - Bakool NDVI LTM Trend Analysis by district & land cover

8.  Civil Security Situation: The overall civil security situation in Bay region was relatively stable, but political confrontations b/w the opposing factions were reported in Bakool. Two heavy fightings in Sep/Aug. ’10 in the area b/w Rabdhure and Yeed with casualties (death and injury). No human losses or injuries among civilians; limited, temporary displacement occurred from Rabdhure town to Burdhuhunle and Garasweyne; however, the displaced people returned back to their original places after the fighting ceased.  Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: Restriction of pastoral mobility. Disruption of cross-border trade. Restricted movement of goods affecting both rural and urban areas. Civil Insecurity

9. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bay region Districts Deyr ‘10/11 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr ‘10/11 as % of Deyr ’09/10 Deyr ‘10/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr ‘10/11 as % of 5- year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Baydhaba -1,400 5%13%10% Buur Hakaba --0--- Diinsoor -675 4%8%7% Qansax Dheere -600 4%7% Bay Deyr 2011 Total 02,675 4%8%7%

10. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Crop Production Estimates – Bakool Region Districts Deyr ‘10/11 Production in MT Total Cereal Deyr ‘10/11 as % of Deyr ‘09/10 Deyr ‘10/11 as % of Deyr PWA (1995-2009) Deyr ‘10/11 as % of 5 year average (2005-2009) MaizeSorghum Rabdhure -24 12%13%7% Tayeglow --00% Wajid -48 14%15%11% Xudur 595311217%19%12% Bakool Deyr 2011 Total 591251848%10%7%

11. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates Deyr ’10/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Bay Region Bay Region Deyr 2010 Production in MT CowpeaSesameGround NutTotal Baydhaba0000 Buurhakaba0000 Diinsoor0000 Qansaxdheere0000 Total0000 Deyr ’10/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates in Bakool Region Bakool Region Deyr 2010 Production in MT Cowpea Hudur0 Wajid0 Teyeglow0 Rabdhuurre0 Total0

12. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Bay Region) Regional Trends in Deyr Cereal Production (Bakool Region)

13. Agriculture Annual Cereal Production Trends (1995 – 2010) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bay Region) Annual Cereal Production by Season (Bakool Region)

14. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos 1. Sorghum Crop Failure. Boodaan, Rabdhure, Bakool, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 2. Sorghum Crop Failure with Limited Fodder Harvest Isha, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 3. Sorghum Crop Failure. Carro Gaduud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10. 1 2 3

15. Deyr 2010/11 Local Cereal Flow Map Bay supplies sorghum to the Bakool, Gedo, South, Central and Northeast as well as refugee camps in Kenya. Bakool mainly gets cereal from Bay. Agriculture

16. Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Regional Trend in Sorghum Prices (Baidoa - Bay) Regional Trends in Sorghum Prices (Hudur - Bakool) Factors influencing sorghum prices: Sorghum crop failure in all agropastoral livelihoods High sorghum demand (Bay)

17. Labour Rates & Availability Factors Influencing Wage Labour: High labour out-migration to Shabelle and Juba regions for charcoal production and agricultural activities in Shabelle riverine Regional Trend in Daily Labour Rate Hudur - Bakool Regional Trend in Daily Labour rate Baidoa - Bay Agriculture

18. Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Hudur – Bakool (3 kg/daily wage) Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Labour to Sorghum Baidoa – Bay (6 kg/ daily wage) Factor Influencing ToT decline: Significant increase in sorghum prices.

19. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Deyr 2010/11 Water availability is poor to average in all livelihoods of both regions Poor to average pasture conditions in all areas of Bay and poor in Bakool regions Average to poor body condition for camel and goats. Cattle and sheep body conditions are deteriorating. Normal to abnormal migration in Bay and abnormal in Bakool region.

20. Livestock Water, Pasture, Livestock Migration, Conditions and Prices in Deyr 2010/11 RegionWaterWater PricesPasture Livestock Body Condition Livestock Prices Migration Pattern Bakool Poor to average Average to highPoor Camel/Goats: Average to poor Cattle/Sheep: Poor LowAbnormal BayAverage to Poor Low (increasing)Poor to Average Cattle/Sheep: Poor Camel/Goats: Average LowNormal (Northern part) Abnormal (South)

21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production – Bay/Bakool Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11) Calving/kidding (Deyr ’10/11) Milk production (Deyr ’10/11) Expected calving/ kidding Jan – Jun ‘11 Trends in Herd Size (June ‘11) LivelihoodsLivestock Species Bakool Camel: Low Cattle: Low to none Sh/Goats: Low Camel: Medium Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Medium Low for all species Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Sh/Goats: Low Southern Inland Pastoral Camel: Increased (102% of BL June 11) Cattle: Decreased (21% of BL June 11) Sheep/goats: Decreased (23% of BL June 11 Bakool Agro-pastoral Camel: Increased (80% of BL June 11) Cattle: Decreased (36% of BL June 11) Sheep/goats: Decreased (71% of BL June 11 B/Bakool Agro- pastoral Cattle: Increased ( 35% of Baseline June 11) Sheep/goats: Decreased (71% of Baseline June 11) BayLow for All Species except Goats: Medium Camel: Medium Cattle: Medium Sh/Goats: High to Medium Camel/Goats: Average Cattle/Sheep: poor Camel: Medium Cattle: Low Sh/Goats: Medium to Low B/Bakool Agro- pastoral Cattle: Increased (35% of BL June 11) Sheep/goats: Near Baseline (91% as June 11)

22. Livestock Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices Regional Average Monthly Prices of Local Quality Goat (Baidoa – Bay) Regional Average Monthly Prices Local Quality Goat (Hudur – Bakool) Factors Influencing L.Goat prices: High supply of livestock into markets Poor livestock body condition Low demand for livestock after the end of Hajj period.

23. Livestock Regional Trends in Goat Prices & Terms of Trade - Bakool Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal per Head of Local Goat ( Baidoa - Bay) Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Cereal to Goat ( Hudur - Bakool) Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum): High cereal prices Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and increased supply on markets.

24. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos - Bakool Mixed Livestock Body Condition. Below Average Goat Body Condition. Geliyo, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Deteriorating Cattle Body Condition, Ceel Malable, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Average Camel Body Condition. Dhurrey, Wajid, Bakool. FSNAU, Dec. ’10

25. Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Most imported commodity prices are relatively stable in the last six months. Factors Influencing Commercial Import Prices: Relatively stable Somali Shilling Increased commercial imports after the end of Monsoon season Removal of road check-points between Mogadishu and Bay/Bakool regions. Rehabilitation of roads (localized) which improved accessibility. Markets Bay_Bakool: Imported Commodity Prices compared to Exchange Rate

26. RegionNutrition Surveys ( 2010) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu ’10 Bakool Agro-Pastoral Bakool Pastoral NA due to insecurity ------------------------------ NA due to insecurity Rapid MUAC assessment, 10 sites (Huddur, Wajid, Rabdhure and Tieglow District) Proportion with MUAC<12.5 or oedema= 16.7%, Proportion with MUAC<11.5cm = 3.6% (Dec 2010, n=1100, R=2) ---------------------- Rapid MUAC assessment, 10 sites (Elberde, Dec 2011, n=1100, R=2): Proportion with MUAC<12.5 or with Oedema= 23.5% Proportion with MUAC<11.5= 3.4 High levels (>40%) and stable trends (FSNAU partner HIS, Jan – Dec 2010) (Bakool AP, 2010, R=3) ----------------------- High levels (>20%) and increasing trends in the MCH in the pastoral livelihood of Bakool (FSNAU partner HIS, Jan – June 2010) OTP: NA High numbers with increasing trends of admission (Bakool AP, 2010, R=3) ______________ Elbarde OTP Closed Morbidity= Outbreak of whooping cough reported in Huddur Rabdure and Tieglow. Measles cases reported in Tieglow (source: Somalia health sector bulletin) Low immunization and supplementation coverage, Insecurity Shrinking of humanitarian space (Bakool AP, 2010, R=3) ______________ Elbarde district. No health services, and feeding centers, Morbidity= No out- breaks with season norms but no humanitarian interventions are available Insecurity Bakool Agro- Pastoral Likely to be Very Critical – No change from last Gu’10, ------------------------ Bakool Pastoral Likely to be Very Critical – No change from last Gu 10, Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

27. RegionNutrition Surveys (2010) Rapid MUAC Screening (% <12.5cm) Health Information System Info TFC/OTP/ SFC Other relevant information – Key driving factors Summary of analysis and change from Gu’ 10 Bay Agr opo ast oral NA due to insecurity Rapid MUAC Assessment, 16 sites (Baidoa, Berdalle, Dinsoor, Burhakaba and Qansahdhere Districts), The Proportion with MUAC<12.5cm or Oedema=18.4% Proportion with MUAC<11.5 cm or Oedema= 4.4 % ( Dec 2010, n=1769, R=2), High levels (>40) and stable trends (Jan- Dec’10) (Bay region, 2010, R=3) High numbers with increasing trends of SFP admission (Bay region, 2010, R=3) Morbidity: Outbreak of AWD, whooping cough and Measles cases reported in Bay region Poor sanitation and clean water, Low immunization and supplementation coverage Shrinking of humanitarian space is likely to impact negatively on nutrition and access to health, water, sanitation, income, food and education (Bay region, 2010, R=3) Likely to be Very Critical – no change from last Gu’10 Nutrition Summary of Nutrition Findings

28. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, Jan 2011 Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010

29. Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bakool Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Southern Inland Pastoral 75% Poor in AFLC, 25% Poor in HE; Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP 100% Poor in AFLC; Bakool Agro-Past 100% Poor in AFLC. Risk Level of Watch for all Acute malnutrition: greater than usual: Bakool Pastoral – sustained Very Critical, Bakool Agro-pastoral – deteriorated from Serious to Critical Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day Water Access: Poor to Average Destitution/Displacement: Integrated into rural communities Coping: Sale of livestock products to increase income, increased livestock sales, labour migration to Juba/Shabelle, seeking social support, increased self-employment, change in food consumption habits Livelihood Assets: Crop production failure, poor rangeland and water conditions. However, livestock reproduction increased due to the previous average to good conceptions, but the high livestock off-take in the coming Jilaal will offset the increase. Main Contributing Factors: Poor Deyr ‘10/11 rains:  Deteriorated livestock conditions  Failed crop production and reduced/depleted cereal food stocks in most agro-pastoral areas Deteriorated pasture and water conditions which led to abnormal migration pattern Increased local cereal prices in all of Bay and Bakool markets since Nov. 2010 Deteriorated trend in household income and food access IPC MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11

30. Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool IPC Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE BakoolCeel Barde 23,8444,0003,0006,0003,000 Rab Dhuure 31,31911,0001,00012,0001,000 Tayeeglow 64,83221,000024,0001,000 Waajid 55,25518,000020,0000 Xudur 73,93924,000028,0000 SUB-TOTAL 249,18978,0004,00090,0005,000 Grand Total 249,18982,00095,000

31. Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bakool IPC Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanit arian Emergen cy (HE Bakool Bakool Agro Pastoral116,81246,000047,0000 Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP101,24227,000035,0000 Southern Inland Past31,1355,0004,0008,0005,000 SUB-TOTAL249,18978,0004,00090,0005,000 Grand Total249,18982,00095,000

32. IPC Estimated urban population in AFLC & HE – Bakool by District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 Bakool Ceel Barde 5,3351,000 37 Rab Dhuure 6,3331,0003,00063 Tayeeglow 16,2211,0006,00043 Waajid 14,4391,0006,00048 Xudur 19,1102,0008,00052 Sub-Total 61,4386,00024,00049

33. IPC Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation - Bay Key IPC Reference Outcomes: All livelihoods in Bay are in BFI phase with risk level of WATCH in post Deyr ’10/11 with the exception of parts of Bay/Bakool agro-pastoral of Baidoa LP(1/4 part) and Burhakaba districts (1/3 part) are High Risk to AFLC (25% of the poor) Acute malnutrition: Very Critical Food Access: Below average access and availability of food Water Access: Access and availability of water is poor to average Destitution/Displacement: Diffuse Coping: Mild coping strategies Livelihood Assets: Crop failure of Deyr ’10/11, high sorghum demand from the neighbouring regions, causing reduction of cereal stock availability. Improved livestock holding levels, but livestock production is below average as a result of poor pasture and water conditions in Deyr ’10/11 Main Contributing Factors: Poor rains.  Crop failure.  Poor livestock body condition and production Decline in household income and food sources MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC, Gu 2010MAP 2: IPC, Deyr 2010/11

34. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE BayBaydhaba/Bardaale 247,670002,0000 Buur Hakaba 100,493001,0000 Diinsoor 63,615002,0000 Qansax Dheere 81,971003,0000 SUB-TOTAL 493,749008,0000 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 08,000

35. IPC Estimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE - Bay Affected Regions and Livelihood Zone Estimated Population by Livelihood Zones Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE Gu 2010Deyr 2010/11 Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanit arian Emergen cy (HE Bay Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral Low Potential 178,683008,0000 Bay Agro-pastoral High Potential 315,0660000 SUB-TOTAL493,74900 TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE08,000

36. IPC Estimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE – Bay District District UNDP 2005 Urban Population Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Deyr 10/11 Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Deyr 10/11 Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Deyr 10/11 Bay Baydhaba/Bardaale 72,79329,000040 Buur Hakaba 25,1236,0002,00032 Diinsoor 12,1543,0001,00033 Qansax Dheere 16,7435,000030 Sub-Total 126,81343,0003,00036

37. The End