1. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of Technology The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Background: SuFo – Sustainable Foresight Impact of foresight / case studies Case study on nanotechnology FTA in the governance of nanotechnology USGermanyRussiaDenmark

3. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Overview Approach: Analyzing the role of FTA in the governance of emerging technologies 1.Introduction: FTA and forward looking activities in the governance of emerging technologies 2.FTA in the US 3.FTA in Germany 4.Conclusion: Timing and the involvement of actors Leading question: How are FTA used in the process to address the innovation system through Emerging Technologies –Addressing sustainability through the governance of emerging technologies

4. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Introduction The Role of FTA and forward looking activities in the governance of emerging technologies What are the dimensions of the governance of emerging technologies addressed by FTA? –anticipating and realizing future opportunities and –identifying and reacting to potential risks Types of FTA (cf. the list in Rader and Porter 2008). Individual visionary thinking –Technology intelligence –Technology forecasting, –Technology roadmapping, –Technology assessment, –Technology foresight Dialogues on ethical, legal and social aspects.

5. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology The Term Nanotechnology Nanotechnology as an emerging technology was established through FTA first programmes in the field that was later called nanotechnology in the late 1980s and early 1990s in the end of the 1990s:former disconnected fields of nanoscale science and engineering were brought together under a broad definition of nanotechnology FTAs were used in the first stages to build up a common understanding of what we today call nanotechnology

6. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology USA Key elements of US future-oriented technology analysis In the US, the National Science Foundation (NSF) established first programs dedicated to specific fields in the early 1990s (nanoparticles). From 1997–1998 NSF funded a cross-disciplinary program entitled ‘‘Partnerships in Nanotechnology’’. Later in the 1990s FTA were used to bring together different field of later called nanoscale science and technology and to develop a R&D vision for nanotechnology. The US National Science and Technology Council conducted a series of studies, including reports of status and trend in Nanotechnology The most important one in regard to the future orientation was the IWGN workshop Report on nanotechnology research directions, that included a “Vision for Nanotechnology Research and Development in the Next Decade” The vision was developed by NSTC Interagency Working Group on Nanoscience, Engineering, and Technology (IWGN) including members of different government departments and agencies.

7. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology USA Organizations with a Role in the NNI and Their Relationships

8. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology USA Relationships between the Program component areas (PCAs) and the Missions, Interests, and Needs of NNI Agencies Source: National Nanotechnology Initiative Strategic Plan (Februar 2011)

9. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology USA NNI Participating Agencies Federal Agencies with Budgets Dedicated to Nanotechnology Research and Development Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) Department of Defense (DOD) Department of Energy (DOE) Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Department of Justice (DOJ) Department of Transportation (DOT, including the Federal Highway Administration, FHWA) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Food and Drug Administration (FDA, Department of Health and Human Services) Forest Service (FS, U.S. Department of Agriculture) National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH, Department of Health and Human Services) National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA, U.S. Department of Agriculture)4 National Institutes of Health (NIH, Department of Health and Human Services) National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST, Department of Commerce) National Science Foundation (NSF) Other Participating Agencies Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS, Department of Commerce) Department of Education (DOEd) Department of Labor (DOL, including the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, OSHA) Department of State (DOS) Department of the Treasury (DOTreas) Intelligence Community (IC) Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, Department of the Interior) U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC)5 U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO, Department of Commerce) Source: National Nanotechnology Initiative Strategic Plan (Februar 2011)

10. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology USA: Forward looking activities in 1999 & 2010 1999 “Vision for Nanotechnology Research and Development in the Next Decade” challenges and opportunities in the nanotechnology field Nanotechnology to “boost our nation’s economy, ensure better healthcare, and enhance national security in the coming decade“ More than 150 participants and contributors from government, science, and industry. Experts from natural sciences and engineering. 2010 “ Nanotechnology Research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020” “During the next decade, application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries. Such translation will benefit society but will require new approaches in accountable, anticipatory, and participatory governance, and real-time technology assessment”

11. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Germany Main actor in the field of nanotechnology BMBF Key elements Variety of FTA Since 1990s: technology forecast studies Development of Policy networks – expert driven 1999 Establishment Nano-Competence Center 1999 Nanotechnology Funding programm 2003 Technology Assessment of the TAB / German Bundestag 2003, the BMBF developed a national strategy for future funding and support of nanotechnology. They focus on the following areas: Nanofab NanoforLife NanoMobil NanoLux NanoChem 2007 “Nano-Initiative – Action Plan 2010” - part of the high-tech strategy of the German Government “cross-departmental initiative”

12. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Germany Ministries involved in action plans “Nano-Initiative – Action Plan 2010” Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs BMAS Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMU Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection BMELV Federal Ministry of Defence BMVg Federal Ministry of Health BMG Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology BMWi 200020072010 “Action Plan 2015” Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) 1999 Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF)

13. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Other nano-related activities Source: Nanokommission 2008

14. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Summery FTA in the Governance of Nanotechnology: Addressing the national innovation system –US: Fostering the cooperation of different government departments & agencies, industry and academia through FTA Pooling activities of different actors – from government, industry, and academia - through an umbrella organization (NNI) Highly coordinated process of bringing together different FTA = Recent concept (2010) “Nanotechnology Research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020” refers to concepts and FTA of a broad variety of actors and stakeholders –Germany: Fostering cooperation between industry and science build up expert networks by using FTA No umbrella organization, that brings together the activities of different ministries and agencies. Heterogeneous forms of FTA without coordination = Recent concept (2010) “Action plan 2015” is focused on the activities of the BMBF to govern Nanotechnology

15. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Scope: Governance of Nanotechnology and related FTA in US and Germany Focus on future opportunities 1999-2004 Adding discussion on potential risks 2004-2010 Technology at the core Societal needs get more attention 2010-2020

16. The role of Future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology The future FTA ….. In the governance of emerging technologies Emerging technologies Grand Challenges What is needed: Foresight technology to bridge the governancce gap between Emerging technologies and Grand Challenges