1. Lesson Objectives: To know how the draw the DTM To interpret the DTM and explain the factors that may affect it.

2. Development Indicators Think back to our lesson on Population Pyramids. Think back to our lesson on Population Pyramids. What development indicators did we think about? What development indicators did we think about?

3. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is used to show how birth rate and death rate can affect the population. The Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is used to show how birth rate and death rate can affect the population. It also shows us population change, according to whether a country is a MEDC or LEDC. It also shows us population change, according to whether a country is a MEDC or LEDC.

4. Demographic Transition Model

7. Stage 1 Birth rate and Death rate are high. Birth rate and Death rate are high. Birth Rate is high as a result of: Lack of family planning Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Children as economic assets Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease High levels of disease Famine Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care Lack of health care War War Competition for food from predators such as rats Competition for food from predators such as rats Lack of education Lack of education Population growth is slow. Population growth is slow.

8. Stage 2 Birth rate remains high. Death rate is falling. Birth rate remains high. Death rate is falling. Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved hygiene (Water for drinking is boiled) Improved hygiene (Water for drinking is boiled) Improved sanitation Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Decreased Infant Mortality Rates What is happening to the population? What is happening to the population? RAPID POPULATION GROWTH. If the BR is 35/1000 (3.5%) and DR is 20/1000 (2.0%), annual growth is 1.5%.

9. Stage 3 Birth rate and Death rate falling. Birth rate and Death rate falling. Family planning available Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanisation reduces need for workers Increased mechanisation reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Increased standard of living Changing status of women Changing status of women The population is… The population is… STILL GROWING BUT LESS RAPIDLY. The gap between BR and DR is getting smaller, but popn still grows.

10. Stage 4 Birth rate and Death rate both steady. Birth rate and Death rate both steady.  Low Infant Mortality, so parents produce fewer children.  Widely available contraceptives.  Changing status of women- jobs, education.  Improved healthcare / standard of living.  Population is steady. Today, Europe has highest percentage of over 65’s in world (15%) and therefore highest DR of any continent other than Africa (12 per 1000).

11. Stage 4 cotd… Eastern European countries such as Ukraine and Belarus are seeing a gradual increase in Death Rates. This is linked to the pressures of the transition to Capitalism, with growing rates of suicide and deaths caused by alcoholism. Eastern European countries such as Ukraine and Belarus are seeing a gradual increase in Death Rates. This is linked to the pressures of the transition to Capitalism, with growing rates of suicide and deaths caused by alcoholism.

13. History of the DTM The DTM is based on European experiences through pre-Industrial phase in 1700’s (Stage 1), Industrial Revolution in early 1800’s (Stage 2), rapid growth of mechanisation and manufacture up to 1960’s (Stage 3) and Post-Industrialisation (Stage 4). The DTM is based on European experiences through pre-Industrial phase in 1700’s (Stage 1), Industrial Revolution in early 1800’s (Stage 2), rapid growth of mechanisation and manufacture up to 1960’s (Stage 3) and Post-Industrialisation (Stage 4).

14. Countries in S.America and Asia working through DTM quicker than expected. Some people concerned with popn growth in poorer countries- DTM suggests that with greater affluence, family sizes are voluntarily reduced. Countries in S.America and Asia working through DTM quicker than expected. Some people concerned with popn growth in poorer countries- DTM suggests that with greater affluence, family sizes are voluntarily reduced.

15. Some countries will not follow pattern predicted. African countries currently at Stage 2- we would expect BR to drop and DR to fall slowly as they move to S3. Some countries will not follow pattern predicted. African countries currently at Stage 2- we would expect BR to drop and DR to fall slowly as they move to S3. Rwanda, Liberia, Iraq have increased DR due to war. Rwanda, Liberia, Iraq have increased DR due to war. Spread of AIDS increasing DR throughout Africa; without AIDS, African popn estimated to be 25% more than current figures. Spread of AIDS increasing DR throughout Africa; without AIDS, African popn estimated to be 25% more than current figures. AIDS has reduced life expectancy (av 46.7 years in E Africa); 4 years less than recent UN projection. AIDS has reduced life expectancy (av 46.7 years in E Africa); 4 years less than recent UN projection. 4.5 million killed by AIDS in Subsaharan Africa (1985-1997). 10% adult popn in Botswana, Uganda, Zambia infected. 4.5 million killed by AIDS in Subsaharan Africa (1985-1997). 10% adult popn in Botswana, Uganda, Zambia infected. Sierra Leone highest global DR (25.7 per 1000), then Malawi (22.1) and Uganda (21.0). Sierra Leone highest global DR (25.7 per 1000), then Malawi (22.1) and Uganda (21.0).

16. Contrasting ‘rich’ and ‘poor’. Gap between Stages 2 and 4 seen most clearly by Infant Mortality Rates (proportion of children who die before 1 st birthday). Gap between Stages 2 and 4 seen most clearly by Infant Mortality Rates (proportion of children who die before 1 st birthday). Average for Africa= 86 per 1000. Average for Africa= 86 per 1000. Sierra Leone 283, Liberia 235. Sierra Leone 283, Liberia 235. Average for S America= 36, Asia= 56. Average for S America= 36, Asia= 56. W Europe, N America, Japan, Aus = all below 10 per 1000. W Europe, N America, Japan, Aus = all below 10 per 1000.

17. Stage 5 Some countries are said to have entered Stage 5. Some countries are said to have entered Stage 5. Look at the DTM and suggest what might be happening in Stage 5. Look at the DTM and suggest what might be happening in Stage 5. What could have caused this? What could have caused this? Can you think of any examples of this around the world? Can you think of any examples of this around the world?

18. Answer either: Explain how these Population Pyramids show that the USA is more developed than Mexico. [6 marks] Or: With reference to Mexico’s Population Pyramid, explain the problems it will face in the year 2025. [6 marks] Figures 2010