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Policy Scenario Analyis Chrystalyn Ivie Ramos Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University 23 April 2008.

Published byKelly Hodges Modified over 9 years ago

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Presentation on theme: "Policy Scenario Analyis Chrystalyn Ivie Ramos Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University 23 April 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Policy Scenario Analyis Chrystalyn Ivie Ramos Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University 23 April 2008

2 Policy Greenhouse gas tax

3 Mitigation Potentials 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0100200300400500600700800 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Mitigation (mmtce) Technical Potential Competitive Potential

4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce Crop Area Fixed Crop Area and Prices Fixed Crop Area and Prices Endogenous Prices Fixed

5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Carbon Price in Euro/mtce Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement in mmtce Competitive Economic Potential Simult. Technical Potential Independent Geographic Potential Independent Technical Potential

6

7 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 020406080100 Billion Euros Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton Changes in Welfare Accounts Gross Ag-Producer Surplus Emission Payments Net Ag-Producer Surplus Ag-Consumer Surplus

8 GHG Mitigation and Markets 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 050100150200250300 Fisher index Carbon price (Euro/tce) Crop prices Livestock prices Livestock production Crop production Net exports

9 Climate Policy and Bioenergy 0 100 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300350 Carbon price ($/ton of carbon) Emission offsets (million metric tons of carbon) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 20 40 60 80 100 Energy Crops (million acres) Carbon tax on energy ($/ton of carbon) 2010 Capacity 2030 Capacity 2050 Capacity Unrestricted Capacity Power Plant Biomass Supply

11 Afforestation Potentials 0 100 200 300 400 500 050100150200250300 Carbon price (Euro/tce) Emission reduction (mmtce) Technical Potential Economic Potential Competitive Economic Potential

12 Biofuel Policy: Livestock Emissions Emission reduction (mmtce) Biofuel carbon price (Euro/tce) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 050100150200250300350400450500 Total Livestock Emission Reductions Less Enteric Fermentation Manure Emission Reductions

13 Forest Policy: Crop Emissions Emissions (kg C/ha) Carbon price (Euro/tce) -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 050100150200250300 Nitrogen Fertilizer Ag-Soil Carbon Irrigation Use Fossil Fuel Use

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