1. Analysis of Severn 2010/11 MRCGP results by SoPC Patch

2. Why this analysis? It would be simple to produce percentage MRCGP pass-rates by Deanery and, for us, by Severn Patch. However but those raw data would be as meaningless as raw hospital mortality data.

3. Why this analysis? Where an ST qualified (UK, EU or IMG) affects the likelihood of succeeding in the MRCGP. Initial GPVTS selection scores affect the likelihood of exam success.

4. Why this analysis? Where an ST qualified (UK, EU or IMG) affects the likelihood of succeeding in the MRCGP. Initial GPVTS selection scores affect the likelihood of exam success. Women tend to do better than men.

5. Why this analysis? So, when comparing patch (or Deanery) MRCGP scores and pass rates, we need to place them in the context of – place of training, – gender and – selection score.

6. The data These data are for all Severn GP STs who took the AKT and/or the CSA for the first time in 2010/11. Patch MRCGP fail rates were too small for meaningful pass/fail comparisons.

7. The data The data aren't normally distributed:

8. Results by Severn Patch: AKT scores

9. Results by Severn Patch: CSA scores

10. But… We know that whether candidates are from the UK, EU or IMG affects likelihood of passing, as does their gender, particularly for the CSA. If a patch has more female, UK-trained candidates, we'd expect their MRCGP success rates to be greater.

11. Comparison by place of medical training Swindon clearly had the most culturally diverse GP STs in this cohort:

12. Comparison by gender And Somerset and Swindon were allocated less women than the other patches:

13. Comparison by selection mark One might expect that ST1s with a better initial selection score would have a higher chance of getting a good MRCGP grade subsequently.

14. Comparison by selection mark This is true to some extent to the AKT, where we find a reasonable correlation (r = 0.42) in Severn:

15. Comparison by selection mark It also applies to the CSA, where Severn has a higher correlation (r = 0.52):

16. Comparison by selection mark But isn't the selection mark a proxy for original medical school location and gender? Initial GPVTS selection scores themselves relate to country of medical school and gender. Taking those factors out, does the selection score from 3 years ago still act as a predictor of MRCGP marks?

17. Comparison by selection mark Charting the GPVTS selection scores of female, UK-trained Severn GP STs against their CSA score still shows some correlation (r = 0.31):

18. Comparison by selection mark So, we do need to take higher selection scores into account when comparing patches.

19. How can we interpret these comparisons? Bristol's GP STs started with better GPVTS selection scores and more favourable ethnicity and gender figures. Taking these into account, their MRCGP marks were slightly lower than expected. Possibly linked with the poorer feedback that the Bristol SP STs give on their hospital posts in our End-of-Post Survey.

20. How can we interpret these comparisons? Swindon GP STs gained slightly lower MRCGP marks. This can be predicted & explained by, their background, gender balance and GPVTS selection scores. Given this triple-whammy, Swindon has done well.

21. Discussion points Congratulations! What can the other patches learn from you? How can you do even better? –in hospital? –in General Practice?