1. Eve Gruntfest Geography and Environmental Studies University of Colorado Colorado Springs, CO 80933 ecg@brain.uccs.edu 719 262 4058 C O M E T Hydromet 00-1

2. The 1976 Big Thompson Flood What Have We Learned?

3. z 140 dead z new focus for next generation of policy makers and scientists involved in flood mitigation The Big Thompson Flood 1976

4. The Big Thompson Flood zWho lived? zWho died?

5. 1986 z Signs z FLASH FLOODS are recognized as different from slow rise floods z Fewer people z Real time detection

6. 1999 z More federal agencies flood warning z Increased vulnerability

7. 1999 z ALERT user groups combine detection/response z Technology z National Weather Service overpromises z Dams/infrastructure z Real time data

8. RememberRemember zWarnings are not a stimulus response action  People must be able to assess their own risk before they will take action

9. Fallacies of Warning Myths zPeople do not panic in response to warnings zPeople rarely get too much information z"Cry wolf" syndrome not applicable if previous misses are understood

10. zPublic wants information from multiple sources zPeople actively seek to confirm risk

11. zScientific Component zDetection zData Assessment zPrediction zInforming Warning Process Components

12. zHear zUnderstand zBelieve zPersonalize zDecide to Act zRespond Public Response Components

13. Warning Message Components zSpecific action zLocation zProtective behavior zTime frames zSource of warnings

14. Warning Messages should be zSpecific zConsistent zAccurate zClear yas to location yactions to take ytime before impact

15. Advantages and Disadvantages of Warning Systems – 17 Systems Unanticipated Problems

16. Sweating the small things zRedundancy zUnreliable mechanical parts z Weather/wildlife

17. Lack of maintenance funding zWho pays after warranty runs out?  Access for gages - textbook vs. practical access

18. Local commitment  Local vs. state vs. federal  Charismatic individuals

19. Wide variation in levels of protection and expense z$500-$5,000,000 What is reasonable per capita expense? zAre warning systems cheap payoff of rain gods?

20.  what type of training to operate? z Who runs show? Inconsistent level of expectation and formalization

21. Common Elements of Success zPolicy entrepreneur – someone who bases career on success of warning system zUse disaster as opportunity zHigh tech/with high touch  Look outside of common frame for ideas and support

22. Social science principals that complicate warning process z What people say and what they do may not be the same thing z The link between awareness of a hazard and taking action is not known

23. zpeople continue doing what they are doing and deny threats – zpanic is not typical zpeople must understand, believe, personalize and then respond!

24. Paying Off the Raingods zWarning systems vs. detection systems zAppropriate per capita costs? zWays of evaluating success

25. Alternate uses of ALERT in Ventura County, California zDetermine burn index zCalculate evapotranspiration rate zHelp predict landslides zSatisfy EPA weather requirements for pesticide users zHang glider wind predictions

26. Research Priorities zCalculate warning system benefits zConduct coordinated post-audits zAddress the false alarm issue in specific leadtimes

27. If 28 people die in Texas was the warning a success?

28. zPackage response systems parallel to detection system packaging zCalculate appropriate actions within specific leadtimes zClarify where scientists disagree

29. How can we get people OUT of their cars?

30. zImplement a system for archiving and sharing data zDevelop warning system standards

31. Can we convince people they are better off wet than dead?

32. Who or what warning agency was most credible during the 1993 Midwestern U.S. floods?

36. How can we convince people they are better wet than dead?

37. The next time it rains 14 inches in four hours will we know in advance?