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Published byTyler Anthony Hoover Modified over 9 years ago
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THE INDIA MAIZE SUMMIT NEW DELHI 21 ST MARCH 2013
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FLOW OF PRESENTATION MAIZE S&D – GLOBAL/INDIAN RABI 2013 PRODUCTION ESTIMATES INDIA MAIZE EXPORTS DESTINATION MARKETS MAIZE PX SERIES CHART FUTURE CHALLENGES ROLE OF INDIA IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE
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MAIZE GLOBAL S&D MARKET YEAR2009/102010/112011/122012/13 Production (MMT)820830877883 Trade (MMT)86939799 Consumption (MMT)822844875880 Carry over stocks (MMT)145131133132 Source - IGC CBOT prices which have tumbled in Nov and Dec have recovered some ground after Jan USDA report, which reported higher than expected feed usage Better crop estimates for US and Argentina, global output revised upwards by 38 mmt, to 883 mmt. Global end-season stocks expected to be down by 1m t y/y World consumption is revised higher, but forecasts for overall declines in both feed and industrial use remain.
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CBOT PRICE SERIES CHART US Drought fears
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MARKET YEAR (OCT-SEPT.)201020112012 Beginning Stocks (MMT)0.4530.5760.756 Area Harvested (MHA)8.68.678.5 Production (MMT)21.7321.5720 Imports (MMT)0.0190.01 Total Supply (MMT)22.20222.15620.766 Feed Domestic Consumption (MMT)999.5 FSI Consumption (MMT)9.18.68.5 Domestic Consumption (MMT)18.117.618 Exports (MMT)3.5263.82.5 Total Demand (MMT)21.62621.420.5 Ending Stocks (MMT)0.5760.7560.266 MAIZE INDIA S&D
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IMPACT OF MAIZE INDIA S&D Drop in Kharif production from 16.2 to 14.5 Mn YoY Projected fall in exports due to Domestic S&D imbalance and relatively bearish to stable international markets. Ending stocks precariously low unless Rabi goes beyond 6.2 Mn Later part of the year can see upsurge in domestic prices. Improved poultry demand within India will add on to the existing demand. Alternate usages of corn increasing in starch/distillery/biofuel.
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INDIA RABI PRODUCTION ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13 Production (figures in '000 tons) Major increase in production is expected in AP & Bihar ….. States2008-092009-102010-112011-122012-13E Andhra Pradesh2.591.772.322.272.69 Bihar1.341.081.020.991.23 Gujarat0.14 0.130.230.20 Karnataka0.310.260.330.430.41 Maharashtra0.240.300.390.310.27 Tamil Nadu0.570.450.470.770.97 West Bengal0.090.130.080.280.16 All India5.614.435.095.355.93
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On the export front, in the current marketing year (Oct12-Sep13), total maize exports reported around 1.87 million tons during the October- February month. During Feb month, 0.552 million tons corn exports reported to Indonesia, UAE, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, China, Bahrain, Singapore, Philippines through JNPT Sea, Chennai Sea & Vizag Sea port. INDIAN MAIZE EXPORTS
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COUNTRYTY 2011/12OCT-12 TO FEB-13 Indonesia1.210.73 Vietnam1.300.28 Malaysia1.040.28 Taiwan0.340.15 Bangladesh0.290.04 Kenya0.02 Yemen0.060.02 Singapore0.050.01 Cameroon0.020.00 Others0.590.35 Grand Total4.911.87 DESTINATION MARKETS AND EXPORTS Vietnam had Trogoderma issues coupled with afla problems.
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MAJOR DESTINATION MARKETS
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* PRICES FOLLOWING A LONG TERM BULLISH TREND SO DO THE MSP MAIZE PX SERIES CHART 540 980 1175
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FUTURE CHALLENGES STAGNATING PRODUCTION GMO still not allowed Competing crops Global warming leading to inconsistent weather. LACK OF QUALITY CONSISTENCY High on aflatoxin & mycotoxins Not deemed fit for human consumption in developed nations. Lack of mechanization for harvesting LOGISTICAL ISSUES Higher wastages during transit Rail/road transport always a limiting factor for speedy movement Frequent Port Congestions LACK OF QUALITY WAREHOUSING Inadequate and poor quality warehousing facilities. Long term storage always remains a concern.
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THANK YOU
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