1. Model Building Part 1: From Theories to Part 2: Following Geddes Concepts Arguments / Explanation Hypotheses

2. Theories (in the positivist tradition) consist of… Laws Hypotheses Explanations Antecedent conditions Variables

3. Law Observed regular relationship between two phenomena (statements of regularity) These can deterministic (“if A then always B”) or probabilistic (“if A then sometimes B, with probability X”) Hypotheses A conjectured relationship between two phenomena

4. Explanation Explanation connects the cause to the phenomenon being caused, showing how causation occurs Antecedent Condition preconditions, initial conditions A phenomenon whose presence activates or magnifies the action of a causal law or hypothesis “A causes B if C is present, otherwise not or only weakly” Free markets lead to greater growth (if a certain level of good governance is present)

5. Variables Variable: A concept that has various values, e.g. the “degree of democracy” or “power” or “conflict”. A law: Democracies do not go to war against each other (“Democratic Peace”) Independent Variable: Explanatory Variable: the existence of a democracy (yes, no) Dependent Variable: War (yes, no) Intervening Variable: WTO membership causes X and X leads to higher growth rates X: investor security

6. Concepts underlying Variables Define concepts Good Governance, Sustainable Development, Globalization, Power, War, Conflict, Integration, Human Rights Big concepts, how to disaggregate Think early on about variance and measurement

7. Concepts Classification/Typologies Typologies are theoretical constructs used when variables are measured nominally... Regimes: personalist, military, or single-party (Geddes) Political Systems: Presidential vs. Parliamentary systems Varieties of Capitalism (liberal vs. coordinated market economies) Developing Countries (e.g. OECD classification)

8. Constructing Arguments / Explanation Ask yourself questions to locate variables (pre- condition knowing the literature and theories) Example Geddes: Regime change Intuition! In order to explain regime change (DV), we try to understand why groups concluded that the old regime had become intolerable and how they developed the organizational strength and popular support needed to overthrow it...(Puzzle…)

9. Constructing Arguments / Explanation The breakdown of an authoritarian regime need not lead to democratization, but when it does, the transition involves bargaining and negotiation (induction through observation) Bargaining over institutions is a central feature of regime change

10. Existing explanations Addressing important factors/variables Political rivalries (internal/opposition) Upper-class support Risks of mass expressions of discontent Ideology Economic shocks Geopolitical shocks

11. Theorization of one process Politics in Authoritarian Regimes „Few authors have considered how characteristics of dictatorship affect transitions“ (omitted variable) Theory of politics within authoritarian regimes Assumptions from democratic theory (survival strategies): officials want to stay in office, best way to do so is to give constituents what they want Modifications –who are the constituents –what performance is necessary –But different interests of leaders in different regimes (e.g. personalist regime)

12. Theorization of one process The military regime Drawing on research of attitudes/preferences of military officers Logic of seizing power vs. returning to the barracks Coordination game between military fractions (Battle of Sexes) Ultimate goal is survival of military Solution: negotiations or credible first mover

13. Theorization of one process

14. Looking for implications As officers find themselves in battle-of-sexes game, military regimes break down more readily in response to internal splits (in comparison to other regimes) The costs for the military varies according to regime type after regime change... Military regimes last less long than other authoritarian regimes Economic crises having stronger disintegrating effect, etc...

15. Hypotheses from Implication Key argument: regime type affects the way transition occurs! Geddes looks at the causal mechanism, certain observations follow (that can be tested): Military regimes survive less long Military regimes are more quickly destabilized by poor economic performance Military regimes are more likely to end in negotiations … Various form of hypotheses Relational (longer, less long, more likely, etc…) As A increases also B increases A is a necessary / sufficient condition for B

16. Test questions to assess arguments / hypotheses Falsifiable? Do hypotheses that form part of a „theory“ contradict each other? Is there a problem of endogeneity? (e.g. economic crises are correlated with regime type) Potentially omitted variables (ideology, external pressure)?

17. Test questions to assess arguments / hypotheses Case-selection –Has the outcome (DV) already occurred...Transition to Democracy? –Large n necessary –DV selection (next session) Operationalization –How well can we operationalize and measure the variables (next session)