1. Foreign Policy CHAPTER FOUR Dr. Clayton Thyne
PS : World Politics
Spring 2008
Goldstein & Pevehouse, International Relations, 8/e
Student notes version

2. Making Foreign Policy
Purpose:
Foreign policies (def):

3. Making Foreign Policy Comparative foreign policy
Study of foreign policy in various states in order to…
3 approaches:
How does size, wealth and dem  FP decisions?
How do populations, natural resources and technology  FP decisions?
How does a state’s political culture and history  FP decisions?
Foreign policy outcomes result from multiple forces at various levels of analysis.

4. Models of Decision Making
Rational model
Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each possible course of action, and then choose the one with the highest benefits and lowest costs.
EUwar = Prvictory(Uvictory) – (1-Prvictory)(Closing)
Role of uncertainty
Accepting of risk versus averse to risk

5. Models of Decision Making
Organizational process model
Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model

6. Individual Decision Makers
Study of individual decision making revolves around the question of rationality.
Difficulties of oversimplification
We can…

7. Individual Decision Makers
Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision making diverges from the rational model in at least three systematic ways:
Decision makers suffer from…
Affective bias:
Cognitive bias:

8. Individual Decision Makers
Two specific modifications of the rational model of decision making have been proposed to accommodate psychological realities.
Bounded rationality
Prospect theory

9. Estimates of Probabilities of Death From Various Causes Cause
Subject Estimates
Statistical Estimates
Heart Disease
0.22
0.34
Cancer
0.18
0.23
Other Natural Causes
0.33
0.35
All Natural Causes
0.73
0.92
Accident
0.32
0.05
Homicide
0.10
0.01
Other Unnatural Causes
0.11
0.02
All Unnatural Causes
0.53
0.08

10. Group Psychology
Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into the decision-making process.
Positive:
Negative:
Group psychology:
Groupthink (def):
Groups tend to be overly…

11. Figure 4.3

12. Crisis Management Crises (def): Stress amplifies bias
Rules are often circumvented

13. Domestic Politics
Foreign policy is shaped not only by the internal dynamics of individual and group decision making but also by the states and societies within which decision makers operate.

14. Bureaucracies Bureaucracies: Diplomats Interagency tensions
Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals
Includes…
Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats
Interagency tensions
Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the notion of states as unitary actors in the international system.

15. Interest Groups Interest groups (def): Lobbying The process of…
Three important elements:

16. The Military Industrial Complex
Def:
Response to the growing importance of technology
Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an interest in military spending
Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that receive military research contracts
Revolving door problem:
PACS from the military industry

17. Public Opinion
Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the citizens of a state
Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies than in authoritarian governments
In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect on foreign policy than on domestic policy.

18. Figure 4.4

19. Legislatures
Conduit through which interest groups and public opinion can wield influence
Presidential systems; separate elections
Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant