1. E-merge: Thomas Backelin Johan Gertéll Benjamin Ozmen Peter Rosenberg Daniel Wändin Emerging Actors Final Presentation

2. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 2 Contents Market Trends 5 Hypotheses Emerging Services - Video Summary Stakeholders Q&A Project purpose Our approach

3. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 3 Stakeholders Project members: Thomas Backelin (Public Relations) Johan Gertéll (Human Resources) Benjamin Özmen (Web Master) Peter Rosenberg (Administration/Secretary) Daniel Wändin (Project leader & Contact person) Coaches: David Alvén (Coach) Jonas Willén (Co-coach) Georg Hodosi (Co-coach) Principals: Göran Sjöström (Telia Research) Jörgen Nilsson (Telia Research)

4. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 4 Project purposes: To deliver a thorough and objective investigation of actors that are likely to establish an end-customer relationship on the wireless market. To provide Telia with a second opinion about future scenarios and market evolvement.

5. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 5 Appear Networks Handelsbanken BMG Sweden AB Captive Svenska Bostäder Scandinavian Online Birka Nät Everyday Digital Route Ericsson (3 different interviews) Drott Affärsutveckling Huvudstaden IT Kommissionen Possio Telia Avanza Birka Marknad ICA Handlarnas AB Drott bostäder DigiDoc Open IP Our approach. Conducted interviews In total: 22 qualitative interviews. Our approach

6. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 6 Telecom Datacom 1G Internet WLAN 2G 2G 3G Convergence of datacom and telecomShift of value creation Infra- structure Providers Trans- mission Providers Market Makers Service Providers Content Brokers Content Provider Value Market trends. The datacom and telecom industries converge rapidly into a common business. More and more of the traditional services will be delivered through IP networks. Structural changes and diminishing barriers to entry create opportunities for emerging actors. Value have traditionally been created down-stream in the value chain but will move up-stream. The importance of owning the customer will increase and actors will strive to establish an end-customer relationship. Market trends

7. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 7 Five hypotheses of where to find emerging actors. Content Providers Global Consolida- tion of Operators WISPs Evolving ONN Brand Actors Emerging Services – Video Presentation Emerging Actors Areas where emerging actors striving to establish an end- customer relationship on the wireless market could be found. 12345

8. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 8 Brand Actors. 1 Mobile payment solutions threaten to substitute conventional ways of payment. Customer loyalty. Cooperation with mobile operators. Actors operating in a mature business with low margins. DriversCandidates ICA Coop Ikea EMV Birka Vattenfall Competitive Pros & Cons + Large existing customer stock + Brand + Trust - Investments + Infrastructure + Customer relationship + Trust + Scale synergies - Overlapping customer stock Conclusion  Less realistic with a time horizon of five years.  Possibly cooperation with mobile operators that want to reduce customer acquisition costs.  Product portfolio extension strategy.

9. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 9 Evolving Operator Neutral Networks (ONN). 2 Freedom of choice Scale synergies: - Co-invoicing - Operation & maintenance - Shared network Lowered barriers to entry. DriversCandidates Communication/ local network operators: - Digidoc Open IP - ViaEuropa - Birka Up-stream service providers. Start-up service providers. Competitive Pros & Cons + Technology Competence + De-facto monopoly + Scale synergies - Confusing model? -/+ Brand - Reduced flexibility - Differentiation possibilities - Transit discrimination? Conclusion  Digidoc Open IP: charges end- customers for access and installs wireless access points. Thus, a wireless end-customer relationship is established.  Short-run: possibly new emerging SPs.  Long-run: Oligopoly

10. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 10 Wireless Internet Service Providers (WISPs). 3 Emerging technologies Low entry barriers - Spectrum regulation - Investments Site attraction - A site with wireless access may be more appealing to customers than a site without access. DriversCandidates Mobile operator WISPs. ISP WISPs. Single Spot WISPs: - Hotels - Cafés Competitive Pros & Cons + Brand & Trust + Customer stock + Infrastructure + Complementing technology/ customer channel + Site ownership - Roaming - No broad demand among customers - Terminals for the broad mass? Conclusion  Mobile operators are hindered to enter the WLAN market due to 3G commitments.  2nd movers due to market uncertainty.  Marginal impact  No end- customer relationship (services are mainly provided for free)

11. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 11 Content providers (CPs). 4 Chargeability problem. Decreasing advertising revenues. New distribution channel(s) for content. DriversCandidates Any content provider on the Internet, e.g: - LunarStorm - Spray Large Media Groups: - Bonnier - MTG - Bertelsmann - Virgin Competitive Pros & Cons + Brand appearance + The mutual dependence between CPs and SPs. - Resources + Resources + Bargaining power towards SPs. - Usually not used to have the end- customer relationship. Conclusion  Vertical integration is too costly.  Cooperation with operators is the only viable solution.  Various forms of collaboration with operators.  The end- customer will still be owned by the operator.

12. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 12 Emerging Services What services will be popular in the future? VIDEO

13. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 13 Summary: Brand actors are well positioned to establish an end-customer relation- ship on the wireless market by collaborating with mobile operators. Evolving ONN will give rise to emerging actors establishing an end- customer relationship on the wireless market. Single Point WISPs are the strongest candidates for entering the wire- less market. However, these players will only have a marginal impact. Content Providers will primarily cooperate with operators. Vertical integration is not feasible. Customer ownership remains by the operator. MMS are next to be launched on a broad basis. LBS will most likely be the most valuable services to end-users.

14. Emerging Actors May 28, 2002 14 Questions And Answers ?