1. Lecture 33, Bayesian Networks Wrap Up Intro to Decision Theory Slide 1

2. Announcements Practice Exercises on Bnets– 6a, 6b and 6c –Reminder: they are helpful for staying on top of the material, and for studying for the exam I will post practice material for the final in a dedicated folder on Connect Keep an eye on Connect and the class schedule for info on new office hours for next week and the week after Remember to fill out student evaluations! –Your feedback is invaluable 2

3. Lecture Overview Recap lecture 32 VE in AISpace, and refinements Intro to DT 3

4. XYZval ttt0.1 ttf0.9 tft0.2 tff0.8 ftt0.4 ftf0.6 fft0.3 fff0.7 Factors A factor f(X 1,…,X j ) is a function from a tuple of random variables X 1,…,X j to the real numbers R A factor denotes one or more (possibly partial) distributions over the given tuple of variables, e.g., P(X 1, X 2 ) is a factor f(X 1, X 2 ) P(Z | X,Y) is a factor f(Z,X,Y) P(Z=f|X,Y) is a factor f(X,Y) Note: Factors do not have to sum to one Distribution Set of Distributions One for each combination of values for X and Y Set of partial Distributions f(X, Y ) Z = f 4

5. Recap If we assign variable A=a in factor f (A,B), what is the correct form for the resulting factor? –f(B). When we assign variable A we remove it from the factor’s domain If we marginalize variable A out from factor f (A,B), what is the correct form for the resulting factor? –f(B). When we marginalize out variable A we remove it from the factor’s domain If we multiply factors f 4 (X,Y) and f 6 (Z,Y), what is the correct form for the resulting factor? –f(X,Y,Z) –When multiplying factors, the resulting factor’s domain is the union of the multiplicands’ domains 5

6. The variable elimination algorithm, 1.Construct a factor for each conditional probability. 2.For each factor, assign the observed variables E to their observed values. 3.Given an elimination ordering, decompose sum of products 4.Sum out all variables Z i not involved in the query (one a time) Multiply factors containing Z i Then marginalize out Z i from the product 5.Multiply the remaining factors (which only involve Y ) 6. Normalize by dividing the resulting factor f(Y) by To compute P(Y=y i | E 1 =e 1, …, E j =e j ) = The JPD of a Bayesian network is Given: P(Y, E 1 …, E j, Z 1 …,Z k ) observed Other variables not involved in the query

7. Variable elimination example P(G,H) =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I P(A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I) = =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I P(A)P(B|A)P(C)P(D|B,C)P(E|C)P(F|D)P(G|F,E)P(H|G)P(I|G) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 7

8. Step 1: Construct a factor for each cond. probability P(G,H) =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I P(A)P(B|A)P(C)P(D|B,C)P(E|C)P(F|D)P(G|F,E)P(H|G)P(I|G) P(G,H) =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 8

9. Previous state: P(G,H) =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) Observe H : f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) Step 2: assign to observed variables their observed values. P(G,H=h 1 )=  A,B,C,D,E,F,I f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 9 (G) f 8 (I,G) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). H=h 1 9

10. Step 3: Decompose sum of products Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) =  A,B,C,D,E,F,I f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 9 (G) f 8 (I,G) Elimination ordering A, C, E, I, B, D, F : P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E)  C f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C)  A f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 10

11. Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E)  C f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C)  A f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) Eliminate A: perform product and sum out A in P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B)  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E)  C f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). f 10 (B) does not depend on C, E, or I, so we can push it outside of those sums. 11

12. Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B)  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E)  C f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) Eliminate C: perform product and sum out C in P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B)  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E) f 11 (B,D,E) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) 12

13. Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B)  I f 8 (I,G)  E f 6 (G,F,E) f 11 (B,D,E) Eliminate E: perform product and sum out E in P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B) f 12 (B,D,F,G)  I f 8 (I,G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) 13

14. Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B) f 12 (B,D,F,G)  I f 8 (I,G) Eliminate I: perform product and sum out I in P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 14

15. Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D)  B f 10 (B) f 12 (B,D,F,G) Eliminate B: perform product and sum out B in P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D) f 14 (D,F,G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) f 14 (D,F,G) Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 15

16. Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F  D f 5 (F, D) f 14 (D,F,G) Eliminate D: perform product and sum out D in P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F f 15 (F,G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) f 14 (D,F,G) f 15 (F,G) Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 16

17. Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)  F f 15 (F,G) Eliminate F: perform product and sum out F in f 9 (G) f 13 (G)f 16 (G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) f 14 (D,F,G) f 15 (F,G) f 16 (G) Step 4: sum out non query variables (one at a time) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). 17

18. Slide 18 Step 5: Multiply remaining factors Previous state: P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 9 (G) f 13 (G)f 16 (G) Multiply remaining factors (all in G): P(G,H=h 1 ) = f 17 (G) f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). Elimination order: A,C,E,I,B,D,F f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) f 14 (D,F,G) f 15 (F,G) f 16 (G) f 17 (G)

19. Step 6: Normalize f 9 (G) f 0 (A) f 1 (B,A) f 2 (C) f 3 (D,B,C) f 4 (E,C) f 5 (F, D) f 6 (G,F,E) f 7 (H,G) f 8 (I,G) f 10 (B) Compute P(G | H=h 1 ). f 11 (B,D,E) f 12 (B,D,F,G) f 13 (G) f 14 (D,F,G) f 15 (F,G) f 16 (G) f 17 (G) 19

20. Lecture Overview Recap lecture 32 VE and refinements and in AISpace, Intro to DT 20

21. VE and conditional independence So far, we haven’t use conditional independence! –Before running VE, we can prune all variables Z that are conditionally independent of the query Y given evidence E: Z ╨ Y | E –They cannot change the belief over Y given E! 21 Example: which variables can we prune for the query P(G=g| C=c 1, F=f 1, H=h 1 ) ? a A,B,D b D,E c A,B,D,E d None

22. VE and conditional independence Before running VE, we can prune all variables Z that are conditionally independent of the query Y given evidence E: Z ╨ Y | E They cannot change the belief over Y given E! Example: which variables can we prune for the query P(G=g| C=c 1, F=f 1, H=h 1 ) ? –A, B, and D. Both paths from these nodes to G are blocked F is observed node in chain structure C is an observed common parent a A,B,D

23. Variable elimination: pruning Slide 23  Thus, if the query is P(G=g| C=c 1, F=f 1, H=h 1 ) we only need to consider this subnetwork We can also prune unobserved leaf nodes Since they are unobserved and not predecessors of the query nodes, they cannot influence the posterior probability of the query nodes 23

24. One last trick We can also prune unobserved leaf nodes –And we can do so recursively E.g., which nodes can we prune if the query is P(A)? Recursively prune unobserved leaf nodes: we can prune all nodes other than A ! 24

25. VE in AISpace To see how variable elimination works in the Aispace Applet Select “Network options -> Query Models > verbose” Compare what happens when you select “Prune Irrelevant variables” or not in the VE window that pops up when you query a node Try different heuristics for elimination ordering 25

26. Query P(A given L=F,S=T) 26

27. 27

28. After assigning L = F, the factor f(A) includes the rows in the original f(A,L) that correspond to L=T 28

29. Complexity of Variable Elimination (VE) (not required) A factor over n binary variables has to store 2 n numbers –The initial factors are typically quite small (variables typically only have few parents in Bayesian networks) –But variable elimination constructs larger factors by multiplying factors together The complexity of VE is exponential in the maximum number of variables in any factor during its execution –This number is called the treewidth of a graph (along an ordering) –Elimination ordering influences treewidth Finding the best ordering is NP complete –I.e., the ordering that generates the minimum treewidth –Heuristics work well in practice (e.g. least connected variables first) –Even with best ordering, inference is sometimes infeasible In those cases, we need approximate inference. See CS422 & CS540 29

30. Build a Bayesian Network for a given domain Identify the necessary CPTs Compare different network structures Understand dependencies and independencies Variable elimination –Understating factors and their operations –Carry out variable elimination by using factors and the related operations –Use techniques to simplify variable elimination Learning Goals For Bnets 30

31. Bioinformatics Big picture: Reasoning Under Uncertainty Dynamic Bayesian Networks Hidden Markov Models & Filtering Probability Theory Bayesian Networks & Variable Elimination Natural Language Processing Email spam filters Motion Tracking, Missile Tracking, etc Monitoring (e.g. credit card fraud detection) Diagnostic systems (e.g. medicine) 31

32. Where are we? Environment Problem Type Query Planning Deterministic Stochastic Constraint Satisfaction Search Arc Consistency Search Logics STRIPS Vars + Constraints Variable Elimination Belief Nets Decision Nets Static Sequential Representation Reasoning Technique Variable Elimination This concludes the module on answering queries in stochastic environments

33. What’s Next? Environment Problem Type Query Planning Deterministic Stochastic Constraint Satisfaction Search Arc Consistency Search Logics STRIPS Vars + Constraints Variable Elimination Belief Nets Decision Nets Static Sequential Representation Reasoning Technique Variable Elimination Now we will look at acting in stochastic environments

34. Lecture Overview Recap lecture 32 VE in AISpace, and refinements Intro to DT 34

35. Decisions Under Uncertainty: Intro An agent's decision will depend on –What actions are available –What beliefs the agent has –Which goals the agent has Differences between deterministic and stochastic setting –Obvious difference in representation: need to represent our uncertain beliefs –Actions will be pretty straightforward: represented as decision variables –Goals will be interesting: we'll move from all-or-nothing goals to a richer notion: rating how happy the agent is in different situations. –Putting these together, we'll extend Bayesian Networks to make a new representation called Decision Networks 35

36. Delivery Robot Example Robot needs to reach a certain room Robot can go the short way - faster but with more obstacles, thus more prone to accidents that can damage the robot and prevent it from reaching the room the long way - slower but less prone to accident Which way to go? Is it more important for the robot to arrive fast, or to minimize the risk of damage? The Robot can choose to wear pads to protect itself in case of accident, or not to wear them. Pads make it heavier, increasing energy consumption Again, there is a tradeoff between reducing risk of damage, saving resources and arriving fast Possible outcomes No pad, no accident Pad, no accident Pad, Accident No pad, accident

37. Next We’ll see how to represent and reason about situations of this nature by using Probability to measure the uncertainty in actions outcome Utility to measure agent’s preferences over the various outcomes Combined in a measure of expected utility that can be used to identify the action with the best expected outcome Best that an intelligent agent can do when it needs to act in a stochastic environment

38. Delivery Robot Example Decision variable 1: the robot can choose to wear pads –Yes: protection against accidents, but extra weight –No: fast, but no protection Decision variable 2: the robot can choose the way –Short way: quick, but higher chance of accident –Long way: safe, but slow Random variable: is there an accident? Agent decides Chance decides 38

39. Possible worlds and decision variables A possible world specifies a value for each random variable and each decision variable For each assignment of values to all decision variables –the probabilities of the worlds satisfying that assignment sum to 1. 0.2 0.8 39

40. Possible worlds and decision variables 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 40 A possible world specifies a value for each random variable and each decision variable For each assignment of values to all decision variables –the probabilities of the worlds satisfying that assignment sum to 1.

41. Possible worlds and decision variables 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 41 A possible world specifies a value for each random variable and each decision variable For each assignment of values to all decision variables –the probabilities of the worlds satisfying that assignment sum to 1.

42. Possible worlds and decision variables 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 42 A possible world specifies a value for each random variable and each decision variable For each assignment of values to all decision variables –the probabilities of the worlds satisfying that assignment sum to 1.

43. Lecture Overview Recap lecture 32 VE in AISpace, and refinements Intro to DT Utility and expected utility 43

44. Utility Utility: a measure of desirability of possible worlds to an agent –Let U be a real-valued function such that U(w) represents an agent's degree of preference for world w –Expressed by a number in [0,100] 44

45. Utility for the Robot Example Which would be a reasonable utility function for our robot? Which are the best and worst scenarios? 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 45 Utility probability

46. Utility for the Robot Example Which would be a reasonable utility function for our robot? 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 0.01 0.99 0.2 0.8 46 Utility probability 35 95 30 75 3 100 0 80