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CF 473.32 8 Winter 2014
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Stock Valuation ch 8
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Stocks Similar to Bonds real world imaginary world
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Real World First dividends regular payments not a liability of the firm until a dividend declared by Board can’t go bankrupt for not declaring dividends
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Real World dividend taxation not considered a business expense not tax deductible however corporations don’t pay taxes on dividends individuals partially sheltered by dividend tax credit
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Real World shareholders common preferred
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Real World common stockholders usual rights voting preemptive right share proportionally in declared dividends remaining assets during liquidation
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Real World preferred stockholders usually don’t vote preferred stock stated dividend must be paid before common dividends can be deferred indefinitely most are cumulative any missed must be paid before common
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Real World a shareholder receives cash in 2 ways company pays dividends sell shares
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Imaginary World In “theory”
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Moore Oil 1 suppose 1 year from now, you think will receive $2 dividend can sell stock for $14 if you want a 20% return to make something this risky worth investing in What’s the most you would pay?
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Moore Oil 1
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Moore Oil 2 suppose you think $2.00 dividend in 1 year $2.10 dividend in 2 years can sell the stock in 2 years for $14.70 still want 20% return What’s the most you would pay?
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Moore Oil 2
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Stock Price only estimate dividends constant dividend zero growth constant dividend growth supernormal growth initially dividend growth is not consistent eventually settles down to constant growth You don’t need to estimate the sale price!
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Stock Price zero growth dividends if paid annually
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Stock Price zero growth dividends if paid more frequently suppose you expect $0.50 dividend every quarter 10% required return What is rational price?
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Stock Price constant growth dividends suppose you expect $2 annual dividend 1 year from now 5% dividend growth market requires 20% return
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Stock Price constant growth dividends suppose just paid $2 annual dividend you expect 5% dividend growth market requires 20% return
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Nonconstant Dividend Growth expected 20% div in 1 yr 15% div in 2 yrs 5% per year from then on What is current price?
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Stock Price Sensitivity to g d 1 =$2 r =20%
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Stock Price Sensitivity to r d 1 =$2 g =5%
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“Market Requires” similar company $10.50current stock price $1.00dividend just paid 5%expected annual div growth What is required return?
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