1. 13-14 June 2007 Old Parliament House Canberra Climate change and transport What are the main options? Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions 7 th BTRE Transport Colloquium Policy Challenges for Future Growth David Cosgrove

2. Transport Emission Trends – Underlying effects Population and demographics Income levels (and other economic impacts) Technical innovation Public preferences (and travel choice behaviour) Costs of travel (fuel prices, fares, vehicle prices, congestion…)

3. Total Australian Passenger task Base case projections Source: BTRE (2005), BTRE estimates – for domestic transport. Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

4. Total domestic freight task Source: BTRE (2005, 2006), BTRE estimates Base case projections

5. Australian Urban Travel Source: BTRE (2005, 2007), BTRE estimates. Other = mostly Light Commercial Vehicles (non-business use), plus motorcycles and ferries.

6. Worsening congestion trends… Source: BTRE WP71 (2007)

7. Energy use by Australian domestic transport Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: includes coal used for electric rail generation Base case projections

8. Liquid fuel use – Domestic and International transport Source: BTRE (2005, 2002a) – note: does not include military fuel use Base case projections

9. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Mode Note: Domestic transport; includes emissions from power generation for electric rail

10. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Road Vehicles Base case projections

11. Sensitivity of projections to oil prices… Note: End-use emission projections – for crude oil prices between about 35 to 90 dollars US per barrel

12. Reproduced from Fueling Our Transportation Future by John B. Heywood, Scientific American, September 2006

13. Reproduced from Green sky thinking: eight ways to a cleaner flying future By Bennett Daviss, New Scientist, 22 February 2007

14. David Cosgrove Trends and projections of transport energy use and emissions Climate change and transport - What are the main options?

15. References and further reading:  BTRE (2002a), Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Transport: Australian Trends To 2020, Report 107  BTRE (2002b), Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, Information Sheet 18  BTRE (2005), Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Australian Transport: Base Case Projections To 2020, Report to AGO, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/commissioned/BTRE_AGO_05.pdf  BTRE (2007), Estimating urban traffic and congestion cost trends for Australian cities, Working Paper 71, http://www.btre.gov.au/docs/workingpapers/wp71/wp71.pdf  BTRE (2006), Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, Report 112  BTE (2000), Urban Congestion - The Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Information Sheet 16  BTCE (1996), Transport and Greenhouse: Costs and options for reducing emissions, Report 94  Cosgrove, D. & Mitchell, D. (2001), ‘ Standardised Time-series for the Australian Road Transport Task’, Proceedings of the 24th Australasian Transport Research Forum, Hobart 17 April 2001, Tasmanian Department of Infrastructure, Energy and Resources  Cosgrove, D. C. (2003), Urban Pollutant Emissions From Motor Vehicles: Australian Trends To 2020, Final Draft Report for Environment Australia, June 2003; study conducted for the Department of Environment and Heritage, BTRE 2003; www.btre.gov.au/docs/joint_reports/urbanpollutants_draft.aspx