1. HiOOS P.I. - B. Taylor Waves and Water Levels Component M. Merrifield & D. Luther - Co-PIs

2. Waves and Water Levels Objectives Inundation Product: Warning of extreme high sea levels at least a day in advance around Oahu (in collaboration with Coastal Inundation component of HiOOS). Harbor Conditions Products (Nowcast & Forecast): Providing real-time information & forecasts of tides, sea/swell, seiches and currents at two high-use, vulnerable harbors: Barber’s Pt., Oahu, and Kaumalapau, Lana’i.

3. Inundation Problem High Tide + High Winter Surf (Setup) = North Shore Coastline Flooding (property damage & road overtopping)

4. Inundation Problem High Tide + A Little Extra (due to an eddy) = Low-Land Flooding (property damage & business disruption) CRAIG T. KOJIMA / CKOJIMA@STARBULLETIN.COM Charles Memminger kayaks at the intersection of Ahua and Kilihau streets in Mapunapuna, which often floods at high tide. July 30, 2006.

5. Inundation Problem: High Tide + A Little Extra (due to an eddy) = Beach Flooding (increased erosion & tourist discontent) Ala Moana Park Honolulu

6. Inundation Problem: High Tide + A Little Extra (due to an eddy) = Beach Flooding (increased erosion & tourist discontent) Ala Moana Park Honolulu

7. Inundation Problem: High Tide + A Little Extra (due to an eddy) = Beach Flooding (increased erosion & tourist discontent) Ala Moana Park Honolulu

8. Inundation Product Requires: accurate tides along Oahu shorelines (spring tide range ~ 1.2m ) –provided by G. Carter (SOEST/UH) model validated by NOAA station SL sea/swell setup prediction (often reaches 0.5m ) –provided by model validated with near-shore wave/SL data funded under HiOOS mesoscale eddy SL prediction (range each year ~ 0.3m ) –provided by HiOOS modeling component SSH annual cycle estimate (Sep-Oct max; often has a range of 0.3m ) –provided by HiOOS modeling component long-term SL rise estimate (at Honolulu, currently ~ 0.003m/yr) –provided by analyses of NOAA SL gauge data storm surge prediction (during hurricane, easily over 2.0m ) –defer to NWS tsunami (depending on location, expect up to 2.0m ) –defer to PTWC

9. Inundation Product: Sea/swell setup based on HiOOS models of wave amplitude & setup, validated with HiOOS & other NOAA wave & SL obs. Wave setup at Mokuleia, N. Shore Oahu

10. Inundation Product: Sea/swell setup varies significantly along shoreline. Where barrier reef is wide, coastal water level unrelated to outside wave activity. Makapu’u Oahu

11. Inundation Product: Nested models (K-F Cheung, SOEST/HiOOS) bring wave predictions into shallow water (validated with HiOOS & NOAA obs). Local Boussinesq Model SWAN – Littoral Wave Model Regional WaveWatch3Global WaveWatch 3

12. Inundation Product: Mesoscale eddies originate east of the islands and propagate to the islands, often amplifying along the way. Satellite SSH Y. Firing, M. Merrifield, Oceanography High Event Honolulu Sea Level

13. Inundation Product: Eddy heights along the shores of Oahu will be determined by high-resolution models validated by NOAA SL gauges & altimetry. Ocean circulation model comparisons for 17 Sep. 2007. Note: Coastline resolution Channel resolution Open-ocean and near-shore currents - Enhanced resolution model captures eddies. - Model output must be evaluated with SL obs.

14. Harbor Conditions Problem: SL amplitudes of seiches (3-40 minute periods) in some harbors often reach 10’s of cm’s, with concomitant disruptive currents. Kahului, Maui SL - Jan. 28-29, 1998 Sea Level (m) Time (day of year - 1998) 40 cm changes in 20 minutes Time (day of year - 1998)

15. Harbor Conditions Product: For best results, directional wave buoys are deployed outside target harbors: sea/swell monitoring & seiche prediction. Kaumalapau Hbr. Lana’i J. Aucan, M. Merrifield, Oceanography ACE, CDIP

16. Harbor Conditions Product: mock-up of a real-time product that we have on-line for Kaumalapau: tides & seiche surge from our harbor gauge; gravity wave height from our wave buoy.

17. Harbor Conditions Product: similar product under construction for Barber ’ s Pt. Hbr., Oahu, but will also have currents in channel per request of pilots. M. Merrifield, D. Luther, J. Aucan - Oceanography

18. Important In Situ Assets All HiOOS W&WL sensors feed into the usual national and international data repositories for SL and surface wave data, e.g., - CDIP - NOAA CO-OPS - IOC SL Facility

19. Underway Development Work: Inundation Product: - refine near-shore sea/swell wave modeling - establish accuracy of eddy SL in regional ocean circulation models Harbor Conditions Products: - deploy current meter off Barber’s Pt. Harbor - deploy real-time harbor conditions product for Barber’s Pt. Hbr. - establish prediction capability for harbor seiche/surge

20. Future Expansion: Hawaii: - acquire SL data from more locations around Oahu to refine wave setup model in terms of reef dimensions - need to acquire and deploy more temporary sea level gauges - expand inundation product to other vulnerable (low-lying) Hawaii coastlines, such as west Maui - need to evaluate specific contributors to inundation through deployment of wave and SL gauges - establish harbor conditions products at other vulnerable Hawaiian harbors, e.g., Kahului & Hilo - need to deploy directional wave buoys, sea level sensors and current meters both inside and outside of harbors (some temporary; some permanent)

21. Future Expansion: Pacific Islands: - expand/export our wave & water level products and monitoring systems to other islands in the PacIOOS RA - currently have a directional wave buoy deployed off Guam - NOS & UHSLC network of sea level gauges on Pacific Is. gives us a jump start on evaluating inundation characteristics at many Pacific Is. - need to evaluate/confirm specific contributors to inundation through deployment of wave and SL gauges - need to deploy directional wave buoys, sea level sensors and current meters both inside and outside of harbors (some temporary; some permanent) - need to expand high resolution wave and ocean circulation modeling to target islands

22. December 2008 Flooding at Majuro