1. The Northwest Corner of the Atlantic and Rapid Climate Change Matthew Hecht with Frank Bryan, Rick Smith, Mathew Maltrud and contributions from others

2. …or, how our work in eddy-resolving ocean modeling applies to the question How to better characterize thermohaline circulation (THC) stability in terms of response to –greenhouse gas forcing –possible increases in fresh water flux (Greenland)

3. and, perhaps Estimation of stability of the THC may present an opportunity for more advanced approaches to ocean modeling we first review What is known about modes of North Atlantic circulation –Switching between modes that may have happened in the past

4. Modes of Atlantic THC Modern (also Dansgaard-Oeschger?) Glacial (Atlantic Intermediate but no Atlantic Deep Water) Heinrich event shutdown Rahmstorf, Nature 2002

5. How about the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current system in these modes? –Brief review of modern, and –Likely glacial configuration We’re particularly concerned here with transition between modes –Preconditioning –Feedbacks which stabilize the transition

6. 10ºC isotherm, from Rossby, Reviews of Geophys 1996, taken in turn from Iselin, 1936.

7. “Major currents of the northern North Atlantic”, from Rossby, Reviews of Geophys 1996, taken in turn from Krauss, 1986.

8. Modern circulation with –Gulf Stream –North Atlantic Current –penetration into the “Northwest Corner” was much different during the last glacial period –Instead, the paleo-Gulf Stream fed a more limited subtropical gyre Think of the Pacific, no high latitude penetration of the subtropical gyre

9. Surface currents and iceberg dispersal at Last Glacial Max, from Robinson, Maslin and McCave, Paleoceanography, 1995

10. Rossby and Nilsson have discussed a mechanism for rapid switching from this paleo-Atlantic circulation to modern circulation –Given preconditioning of Atlantic and then resumption of deep water formation –topographic and planetary waves communicate this shift to Grand Banks region, and –North Atlantic Current forms, turning north at Grand Banks and into NW Corner –stronger (and now interhemispheric) THC makes for stronger Florida Current

11. Conceptual mechanism for rapid THC response to onset of northern deep water formation through T opographic and P lanetary waves, from Rossby and Nilsson, JGR 2005.

12. Development of NAC: Was transition truly “rapid”? Learn more about this in Birmingham? –Answer consequential to paleoclimate research –Answer, though simple, may take time to settle Question of Atlantic Circulation driving the atmosphere, or atmosphere (winds) driving the ocean (Wunsch 2006)? Regardless, –Circulation which feeds North Atlantic deep water formation modeled poorly in climate models –Stability of modern Atlantic circulation to “anthropogenic forcing” may depend on realism of this circulation mesoscale variability required for realistic circulation in this region

13. 21 rst century climate What concern do we have for ocean circulation?

14. Response of North Atlantic Overturning Circulation From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report, 2001

15. Stouffer et al, J Clim. 2006 CMIP “ water hosing ” simulations, 100 yrs at 0.1Sv (0.1x10 6 m 3 /s), then 100 years of recovery.

16. Stouffer et al, J Clim. 2006 Extreme water hosing (10x) leads to shutdown in all models:

17. Rossby and Nilsson discuss role of NAC in –Transport of saltier waters into deep water formation region –Maintenance of newly resumed deep convection (Maintenance of modern deep convection) So what happens in an ocean climate model? –Ocean climate models don’t form a Northwest Corner Back to the real world

18. CCSM.3 control Sea Surface Height from ocn climate model (CCSM.3 control simulation)

20. Large sea surface temperature errors in the southern Lab Sea are apparent. Associated biases in salinity may be a larger issue for modeling of THC stability. Collins et al, J Clim 2006

21. Eddy-resolving ocean models for climate science? Eddies essential to mean circulation of Northwest Atlantic THC stability would be climate science application where high res has a role – opportunity to support “IPCC-class” climate simulation (again, the multi-scale problem)

22. Possible to get good Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current in “eddy-resolving” model

23. 0.1 model of SMBH TOPEX/Pos. obs (Le Traon et al 1998 Sea Surface Height Variability

24. Resolution was part of the story –We’ve since learned that a good Gulf Stream system is far from assured, even at 0.1º

25. SSH Variability from Maltrud and McClean 2004 1/10º POP, dipole grid, full cells: TOPEX- ERS1

26. How to improve global GS/NAC? Factors particular to global configuration –Lateral boundary conditions (lack thereof) –Horizontal grid discretization Factors addressable in context of regional North Atlantic model –Here we discuss Horizontal dissipation (parameterization, coefficients) Preparation of topography (smoothness) –Also have considered Vertical mixing Forcing Advection (simple centered vs quasi-monotonic)

27. How much sensitivity to horizontal dissipation? –coefficients

29. Gulf Stream paths from intersection of 12°C isotherm and 400m, 1998-2000 By this point in time (years 13-15) the more viscous (C=1) case has a more realistic separation (obs in green, model mean, 1  and extreme envelope in blue) C=1, 0.1º C=1/2, 0.1º C=1/4, 0.1º greater dissipation less dissipation

30. Stream- coordinate velocities at “crossover” (Hatteras) C=1 C=1/2 C=1/4 Support for Thompson and Schmitz (JPO 1989): DWBC exerts control over separation of Stream greater dissipation less dissipation

31. Obs (AVISO) Sea Surface Height Variability (1998-2000) C=1 C=1/2 C=1/4 greater dissipation less dissipation

32. Deeper penetration of NA Current in less viscous case Ozgokmen (97) found jet needed to be highly inertial with low eddy activity to separate and cross f/H, in process study. –We don’t see relation between low eddy activity and separation at Hatteras –but maybe high eddy activity for reattachment at Grand Banks and Ozgokmen may be correct, even at Hatteras, in terms of isolation from from topography allowing for separation (but perhaps with wrong mechanism for Hatteras, right mechanism for Grand Banks) Eddy Kinetic Energies, 55º W C=1/4 C=1 C=8

33. How different the density (thermal) fronts are! Yet: Many of the features of the flow are similar here, and deeper -- the E/W portions of the flow as it winds northward. More viscous case tends to lose much of the NAC out eastern boundary relatively early. C=1 C=1/4 greater dissipation less dissipation

34. Peak velocities in NAC match pretty well –but see how 10 cm/s isotach is at 1600 m in model, 3500 m in obs C=1/4 +32.5 -20.0

35. How much sensitivity to horizontal dissipation? –Parameterization Anisotropic Gent-McWilliams Parameterization for Ocean Models –As suggested by Roberts and Marshall (JPO, 1998), adiabatic closure beneficial, even at 0.1º resolution –Anisotropic GM shown to allow energy levels to remain high, along with use of anisotropic horizontal viscosity Smith and Gent, JPO 2004

36. Preparation of topography Use of “partial bottom cells” Additional smoothing (still only moderate)

37. SSH Variability BR_full BR_pbc AK_pbcAK_S3 AVISO Add pbc’s Light smoothing of topography

38. Factors particular to global configuration –Lateral boundary conditions (lack thereof) –Horizontal grid

39. Sea Surface Heights Global Sector North Atlantic SSH from fully global 0.1º dipole grid, 3600x2400 points From sector version of same grid, 1130x1500 pts (restoring boundaries at N/S, no throughflow)

40. SSH Variability SSH Var from fully global 0.1º dipole grid, 3600x2400 points From sector version of same grid, 1130x1500 pts (restoring boundaries at N/S, no throughflow) Global Sector

41. Factors particular to global configuration –Horizontal grid discretization

42. Displaced Pole Grid A sensitivity we’re exploring in global rather than regional configuration: horizontal grid discretization

43. Tripole Grid Lat/lon grid in southern hemisphere, w/ pole in Antarctica Displace pole grid W/ poles in North America, Siberia Transition at something like 30ºN so that singularities remain well within land

44. New global eddy-resolving simulations Ocean-only study with “transit time distributions” and Lagrangian tracers –Using tripole grid, partial bottom cells, anisotropic GM and viscosity, nearly monotonic advection scheme Fully-coupled climate simulation –Using the Community Climate System Model –(Short) control and CO 2 increase runs Both efforts involve many people at various institutions

45. Further off: Questions to address Smarter ways to bring in effects of mesoscale eddies? –Variable resolution? –LANS-  model? –Higher-order methods? Impact of vertical representation (beyond roughness in z-coord)? –Pressure vs density as vertical coordinate (or hybrid) –Parameterization of mixing in overflows

46. …Questions to address Combine techniques for –Simulation of long-time evolution IPCC-class ocean climate model? Paleo-climate resolution version of ordinary ocean climate model? Implicit model? With accurate simulation of –Mean transport and preconditioning, –deep water formation, and –thermohaline circulation transition