1. Hervé Rannou hrannou@items.fr Troubles & Perspectives

2. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 2 The big plunge Telecom stocks from 2000 Infrastructures : -80% Internet : -80% Telcos : -40 % Mobiles : - 70 %

3. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 3 The big plunge

4. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 4 The big plunge Market Capital / Turover (Booz Allen & Hamilton)

5. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 5 Basic market trends PC Home Internet users Mobiles Broadband

6. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 6 Basic market trends PC Households

7. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 7 Basic market trends Internet Users +1,5% / month +3% / month +2% / month From 18% to 42% /year

8. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 8 Basic market trends Mobiles

9. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 9 Market forecast vs Reality 1999 2000 – The ideal model 2001 – want the money back

10. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 10 Revenue sources for next years Mobiles Internet Broadband Internet Services & Contents Customer services Public services

11. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 11 Revenue sources for next years Mobiles : UMTS in trouble The I-mode in Japan > 30% of cellular subscribers

12. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 12 Revenue sources for next years Internet broadband US xDSL 2000 : 300.000 to 1.600.000 subscribers : +450 % + 90% expected in 2001 Cable Modem 2000 : 1.400.000 to 3.300.000 XDSL France 2001 : 71.000 to 450.000 subscribers Critical Issues : unbundling & open access Broadband networks

13. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 13 Revenue sources for next years Typical Revenues / Month (US) Local : $25 LD :$20 Cable :$30 Cable services (PPV …) :$10 Internet :$20 Broadband Internet :$35 Cellular :$40 Cellular services :$5 $/monthNb subs.

14. Oct 18, 2001 Property ITEMS Int. / AUSY Markets & perspectives 14 Local governments : the new players Develop applications For Citizens For Education For Health … Take part in the Broadband access debate Partnership vs competitor with operators Exemples : Sweden, Germany, France, Canada, US