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AfDB Work programme in NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011.

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Presentation on theme: "AfDB Work programme in NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011."— Presentation transcript:

1 AfDB Work programme in NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi Chief Statistician, ESTA.2

2 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 I. Historical background: From 2005 ICP-Africa … to … AGNA II. ICP Sustainability in Africa: One of the pillars of 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in Africa III. 2011 ICP Round National Accounts Activities IV. Way Forward: Provide TA to Countries and coordinate 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy in Africa Outline

3 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 From 2005 ICP-Africa…. to …. AGNA African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA

4 Overview of the International Comparison Program (ICP) 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Purpose Approach Generate Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) for cross country comparisons of GDP and related aggregates Collection of prices for well-defined basket of goods & services Compilation of harmonized National Accounts (GDP breakdown according to basic headings) Use of internationally accepted statistical methods and processes

5 2005 ICP-Africa Challenges 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 In 2003, an assessment of 49 countries statistical systems allowed to identify challenges for the implementation of ICP 2005 in Africa. Different level of statistical development in National accounts and price statistics at country level: -Lack of qualified staff -Lack of equipment -Lack of financial resources -Few of countries implementing the 1993 SNA

6 2005 ICP-Africa Challenges (Cont’d) 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Hence a sound regional program was design with following objectives: Overall Objective: Determination of PPPs to facilitate cross- country comparisons of GDP expenditures and meet the demand for reliable and timely data Specific Objective 1: Strengthen national statistical capacity in price and national accounts Specific Objective 2: Make ICP an integral part of national statistical systems Specific Objective 3: Facilitate cross-country comparisons of price levels, and economic aggregates in real terms

7 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Help countries produce required expenditure weight data Assess country capacity Develop a general framework Step-by-step guidelines Increased reliability of national accounts Consistency with official estimates Great detail of expenditures 200 basic categories Broad base partnership Country level Sub-regional & regional support International partnership Long-term quality improvement objectives Meta data questionnaire; Exchange of best practices; Participatory process ICP-Africa: A Capacity Building Exercise

8 AfDB contribution to ICP-Africa 2005 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011

9 Historical ICP Participation (Global & Africa: 1970-2005) 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011

10 ICP-Africa 2005 Objectives relating to GDP expenditures estimates 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011  Produce GDP estimates broken down by broad expenditure categories over the past 10 years;  Have GDP expenditure broken down by 200 basic headings for the reference year 2005;  Strengthen capacity to allow for mainstreaming ICP activities into the regular activities of the National Statistical Offices (NSO) and the curricula of statistical training centers. Relevant activities were carried out or initiated in compliance with the 1993 SNA framework.

11 2005 ICP-Africa contribution to 1993 SNA Implementation in Africa 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Independent Evaluation of 2005 ICP-Africa: to evaluate the performance of the program against the goals, objectives and targets set Before ICPDuring ICPAfter ICP Our country meets UN Minimum Requirements related to the implementation of the 1993 SNA 68%91% The production boundary has been revised in compliance with the 1993 SNA 60%81%86% GDP related tables and accounts are compiled using 1993 SNA requirements on supply and use tables 37%70%71% Our methodologies for GDP computation comply with international standards and norms 77%91%96% Our methods to analyze benchmark survey data are consistent with the 1993 SNA requirements 68%83%88% Our country has shifted from 1968 SNA to 1993 SNA60%80%83% Our country includes GDP breakdown into detailed expenditure categories, in the publication of national accounts 21%45%68%

12 From 2005 ICP-Africa … to … AGNA 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Success of 2005 ICP-Africa Round 2008 Accra Resolution on ICP Africa: -ICP Sustanabiliy: Mainstreaming ICP in NSO work program -AfDB to lead the ICP-Africa process towards Computation of PPP on annual basis starting from 2009 AGNA Meetings -AGNA 1: Lusaka, 07-11 April 2008 -AGNA 2: Tunis, 02-04 July 2008 -AGNA 3: Durban, 12-13 August 2008 -AGNA 4: Addis-Ababa, 21-23 October 2009 -AGNA 5: Dakar, 20-22 November 2009 -AGNA 6: East London, 7-12 December 2009 -STATCOM-Africa II, January 2010 -AGNA 8: Yaoundé, 13-15 December 2010 -AGNA 9: Addis-Ababa, 11-15 April 2011

13 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 ICP Sustainability in Africa through 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA

14 2009 & 2010 ICP- Africa Exercises 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Challenges: Compute PPPs on yearly basis (ICP sustainability) Reduced ICP ressources provided to countries Inclusion of the price component of ICP-Africa within the NSOs’ routine price activities. Having an intersection with a good number of CPI products is one of the conditions of ICP-Africa sustainability since it allows countries to optimize their resources in undetaking both activities Change in ICP teams in countries (retrain NSO staff) Detailed GDP breackdown series (2005-2009) PPP computation for 2009 underway – First results espected in September 2011 Price data collected for ICP 2010 exercise & GDP breackdown for 2010 under preparation

15 Adopting SUT for ICP: Objectives & Strategy To ensure consistency and comparability of GDP Expenditures and detailed expenditure weights for ICP-Africa PPP compilation needs 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 A framework has been designed in 2004 for ICP 2005 but was not properly implemented Implementation of SUT compilation by phases Developed prototype supply and use matrix (nxm) Conduct of data review workshops Provision of technical advice countries Constant monitoring of the status of compilation Objectives Strategy

16 ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of National Accounts work Strategic Objective 2.1: Increasing the ability of African countries to master ICP-Africa, so as to make it the basis for routine national accounts work 2.1.1. Integration of the GDP breakdown into the 1993 SNA national accounts routine work 2.1.2. Publication and popularization of the GDP breakdown methodology 2.1.3. Development and publication of an African annual report on GDP breakdown into basic headings 2.1.4. Technical Assistance to ICP-Africa non participants countries 2.1.5. Assistance to fragile States and small island developing countries

17 ICP-Africa & 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Line 2. Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of National Accounts work Strategic Objective 2.2: Developing an African System for the annual production of macro-economic aggregates and Price statistics for the calculation of purchasing power parities 2.2.1. Elaboration of product lists for each Regional Economic Community (REC) 2.2.2. Enhance the validation of GDP expenditures and national accounts for each REC member countries 2.2.3. Compute, on an yearly basis, purchasing power parities for each REC and at the regional level

18 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 2011 ICP Round National Accounts Activities African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA

19 National accounts Framework for the 2011 ICP 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 The purpose of the Framework is to ensure optimal consistency between ICP surveys and processing and the System of National Accounts Therefore, national accountants will work together with price statisticians to cross check their respective products and prices

20 20 2010 Major aggregates for latest year possible J J 2011 2013 2012 N N BH details for final cons. aggregates for latest year possible Values for all BHs N N J J J J N N Preliminary data for 2010 J J Major aggregates for 2011 BH values for 2011 J J O O M M J J J J O O M M M= May; J= July; O= October; N=November ICP 2011 National Accounts Global Timetable

21 ICP 2011 National Accounts Global Timetable - Milestones DATE / MILESTONEACTIVITY / OUTPUTS July 2010 Major aggregates for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 Basic heading details for final consumption aggregates (for 2008 or the latest possible year) November 2010 Major aggregates (revised) for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 Values for all basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 July 2011 Major aggregates (revised data for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009), preliminary data for 2010 All basic headings for 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 (preliminary) July 2012 – preliminary data for 2011 for initial results for 2011 Major aggregates for 2011 All basic headings for 2011 (best possible estimate) October 2012 – data for preliminary ICP results Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012) All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since July 2012) December 2012 Data review workshop in each region to consider the full set of ICP results based on the semi-final national accounts data May 2013 – final data for published ICP results Major aggregates for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012) All basic headings for 2011 (any revisions since October 2012) October 20132011 ICP results released

22 ICP 2011 National Accounts Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d) DATE VENUE WORKSHOP 14-25 June 2010 Nairobi, Kenya 1st ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation & 2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines 30 August-3September 2010 Hammamet, Tunisia 2 nd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2009 GDP Breakdown, Validation & 2011 GDP Breakdown guidelines 9-12 May 2011 Tunis, Tunisia 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2010 13-17 June 2011 Accra, Ghana or Rabat, Morocco 3rd ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary data 2010, SUT approach, Specific Surveys November 2011Dakar, Senegal 4th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2010 GDP Breakdown: Revised data & ICP 2011 Specific Surveys data validation

23 ICP 2011 National Accounts Timetable - Workshops (Cont’d) DATE VENUE WORKSHOP April 2012TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2011 & ICP 2011 Specific Surveys data validation June 2012Marakesh, Morocco 5th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Preliminary data September 2012 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2011 & ICP 2012 Specific Surveys data validation December 2012 Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire 6th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Revised data February 2013TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Preliminary data for 2012 & ICP 2011 Final Results May 2013 Yaoundé, Cameroon 7th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2011 GDP Breakdown: Final data & Preliminary data for 2012 August 2013 TBD by REC/SRO 5 National Accounts Sub-Regional Workshops (AMU, COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC): Revised data for 2012 & ICP 2013 Specific Surveys data validation October 2013Kigali, Rwanda8th ICP 2011 Regional Workshop: 2012 GDP Breakdown: Final data & ICP 2013 Specific Surveys data validation

24 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 The Way Forward African Development Bank Group Statistics Department, ESTA

25 The Way Forward 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011  Implementation of ICP-Africa Programme  Provide Technical Assistance to Countries  Contribute to 2008 SNA Implementation Strategy Coordination in Africa

26 9th Meeting of the AGNA & Seminar on the Implementation of the 2008 SNA Addis-Ababa, Ethiopia, 11-15 April 2011 Asante Choukran… Merci… Thank you…

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