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Questions asked by the C20C conveners (1)What is the robust response of climate to global deforestation ?  implies idealistic scenarios (2) What is the.

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Presentation on theme: "Questions asked by the C20C conveners (1)What is the robust response of climate to global deforestation ?  implies idealistic scenarios (2) What is the."— Presentation transcript:

1 Questions asked by the C20C conveners (1)What is the robust response of climate to global deforestation ?  implies idealistic scenarios (2) What is the exact sensitivity to land-atmosphere coupling ?  implies multiple sensitivity tests: with/without interactive soil moisture; with/without interactive leaf area index; with/without dynamic land-cover over the natural land areas. We therefore reformulated the questions

2 Question asked What are the changes at the land-surface that drive climate change? Alternatively, what are the changes / shifts / fluctuations that have happened in the past that your model is unable to reproduce, and where you think land cover changes may play a role ? 2 focus for the next 2 years: 1)The West African Monsoon and the South Asian monsoon 2)The persistent droughts that have happened in North America.

3 Suggested scenarios (1) Focus on the past 50 years for monsoons, on the whole 20th century for North American droughts (2) Run simulations with and without land-use changes at te global scale (3) Run simulations where changes are only applied to South Asia OR West Africa OR North America. For Africa, we may need to run an additional simulation with more idealistic scenario because the land-use changes are quite small (4) Some models (Hadley, IPSL) may run additional simulations with dynamic vegetation on? All simulations should be run with full external forcings, natural and anthropogenic (as in AR4)

4 Analyses in terms of full atmospheric dynamics + Results from these simulations will also be examined in terms of their consequences on the European climate and southern hemisphere mid-latitudes climate (e.g. Australia). Related projects for analyses:  West African monsoon - WAMME (Y.Xue)  European climate – (Chris Folland)  North America drought - US CLIVAR (S. Schubert)  Extremes (stardex indices) – LUCID (Aurore Voldoire)  South Asian Monsoon – MAIRS (?)

5 10 participating groups (preliminary list)  NASA GEOS GCM – Randy Koster LSM  COLA AGCM + SsiB –  Hadley Centre (need to check which model versions and which simulations).  IPSL  UCLA model  Arpege  CCSM + IBIS (Christine Delire)  ACCEESS (Australia, HadGEM + CABLE LSM).  MRI model + SiB ? (MRI GCM3)  NCAR?


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