1. Atmospheric Research HOT COWS! Presentation of pilot risk assessment to stakeholders Probability of climate change in terms of milk loss Adaptation assessment Planning horizons

2. Atmospheric Research Heat stress model Temperature / Heat Index (THI) Maximum temperature and dewpoint temperature THI = T max + 0.36 T dewpoint + 41.2

3. Atmospheric Research Production effects THI between 79 and 88 THI between 72 and 78 mild stress no stress moderate stress mild stress

4. Atmospheric Research Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >72) 012345 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C) Maximum Temperature Change (°C) 280 (4%) 350 (5%) 420 (6%) 490 (7%) 540 (8%) 630 (9%) 700 (10%)

5. Atmospheric Research Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >78) 012345 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C) Maximum Temperature Change (°C)

6. Atmospheric Research Constructing climate probabilities for maximum temperature in 2070 Global Warming 0.7 2.1

7. Atmospheric Research Constructing climate probabilities for dewpoint temperature in 2070 Global Warming 0.7 2.1 Regional Dewpoint Change per DGW 0.0 1.5

8. Atmospheric Research Risk response surface - 2070

9. Atmospheric Research Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI72

10. Atmospheric Research Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI78

11. Atmospheric Research Milk gain due to adaptation from THI72 to THI78

12. Atmospheric Research Planning horizons and windows of adaptation Planning horizon