1. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Meeting Global Energy Challenges through Technology Leeds University, 21 March 2012 Ambassador Richard Jones Deputy Executive Director, IEA

2. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 The context The world needs an energy technology revolution to satisfy its energy needs in ways that are secure, affordable and sustainable.  Unprecedented rates of change in new technology uptake will be needed There are some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done.  Which technologies can play a role?  What are the costs and benefits?  What policies are needed?

3. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions in the Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios Global CO 2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.

4. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement by region In the BLUE Map scenario, most of the reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions are in non-OECD countries.

5. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions substantially.

6. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Primary energy demand by fuel and by scenario By 2050, coal, oil and gas demand are all lower than today under the BLUE Map scenario.

7. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Decarbonising the power sector – a new age of electrification? A mix of renewables, nuclear and fossil-fuels with CCS will be needed to decarbonise the electricity sector.

8. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Average annual electricity capacity additions to 2050, BLUE Map scenario Annual rates of investment in many low-carbon technologies must be massively increased from today’s levels.

9. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Smart grid CO 2 reductions in 2050 Smart grids allow better management of the grid and can facilitate the deployment of low-carbon technologies, such as renewables and electric vehicles.

10. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Evolution of light-duty vehicle sales by technology Baseline scenario BLUE Map scenario In the BLUE Map scenario advanced technologies, such as plug-in hybrid, all-electric and fuel-cell vehicles, dominate sales after 2030.

11. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Additional investment and fuel savings, 2010-2050 Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment required.

12. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Key Technology Needs We will move toward ever more electrification, and greater use of variable renewable power sources Need much smarter grid management and end use signals There are really only 3 potential zero carbon energy carriers: electricity, hydrogen, biofuels Two of these face enormous challenges Coal‘s use in power generation and industry will remain high for decades – we must make progress on deploying CCS

13. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 ETP 2012 Early release at CEM3 Clean Energy Progress Report 2011 Will be updated and improved in 2012 Featured as ETP 2012 early release February 25-26 2011

14. © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy technology roadmaps Technology roadmaps 12 Roadmaps and How to Guide published Roadmaps provide answers: – Where is the technology today? – What is the deployment pathway needed? – What are the priority near term actions? Next steps – 7 more roadmaps in 2012; implementation: support national roadmap development, track progress

15. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 1. How2Guide (H2G) Stakeholder engagement Capture knowledge Develop the tools 2. Dialogue workshops Disseminate H2G content International best practice Case studies 3. Training Bi-lateral Multi-lateral Train The Trainer (T3) 4. Roadmap development Indirect support Direct support Tech- Platform Activities © OECD/IEA 2012 Energy Technology Roadmaps Regional & National level

16. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 GLOBAL ENERGY R&D NETWORK ©OECD/IEA 2011  5,000 scientists, experts, researchers, consultants  500 universities, labs, government offices, companies, consultants  Link public and private  Link IEA members and non-members

17. 2 0 1 0 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 © OECD/IEA - 2010 Thank You www.iea.org/techno/etp/index.asp