1. Marine Core Service MY OCEAN MyOcean SAM, 27-28 April 2011, Rome, Italy WP 6 Monitoring & Forecasting Center for Baltic Nicolai Kliem Presented by Jun She Danish Meteorological Institute

2. Marine Core Service Reminder - Partnership DMI Danish Meteorological Institute SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute MSI Marine Systems Institute BSH Bundesamt für Seeschifffart und Hydrographie

3. Marine Core Service Reminder - Partnership WP 6 Baltic Sea MFC (coordination DMI) R&D Development Maintenance Production CalVal BSH DMI FMI SMHI BSH DMI FMI SMHI BSH DMI FMI SMHI BSH DMI FMI MSI SMHI

4. Marine Core Service Reminder - Objectives for R&D n Main objective was n Integrate existing Baltic Sea 3D models into one operational forecasting system n Integrate best practice for code for V1 stream 2 n Develop assimilation schemes for Sea Ice, SST & T/S n Choose and calibrate bio-module n Main issues n Combine forces in model code development n Same code, different set-ups

5. Marine Core Service R&D : main achievements n Main achievements, model code New updated model code for V1 (stream2) Code freeze: Sep 2010 Bugfixing, testing etc Release: Nov 2010 Validation simulation for 2007-2008 Validation report: Feb 2011 n Main achievements, data assimiliation Data assimilation schemes has been developed and implemented Operational production V1 will assimilate SST and sea ice concentration Re-analysis will assimilate T&S

6. Marine Core Service Sea surface temperature on April 24, 2005 Observations With EnOI Without DA Development of data assimilation at DMI

7. Marine Core Service Combination of information via data assimilation (PDAF, SEIK Filter)‏ Improved analyses and forecast of e.g. - SST - Ice cover SST: satellite (AVHRR)‏SST: simulation (BSHcmod)‏ Development of data assimilation at BSH

8. Marine Core Service Status of model code n Code revision through Subversion n DMI version has formed the base code n New features:  Generalised representation of hydrostatics and pressure gradient force  Dynamic vertical coordinate  Short-wave penetration  Improved wind stress parameterization  Improved submodel coupling interface (e.g. to eco-model)  6-hourly scheduling

9. Marine Core Service Reminder - Objectives for Dev. & Maintenance n Objectives Implement the Baltic MFC V1 n Steps/issues –Define product standards –Interfaces with TACs and MFCs –Tools for post processing and delivery –Code maintenance –Documentation –Technical and product validation

10. Marine Core Service Dev. & Maint. : main achievements n Main achievements are New model for V1 stream2 SVN repository for code exchange Documentation of code and environment on web Discussed interface with NWS MFC V1 structure by consortium approach n Main difficulties n Making sure that we are all strict applying same model, same standards etc. n Remaining tasks n Launch of V1 stream2 n Model adjustments for V2

11. Marine Core Service Reminder - Objectives for Production n Objectives for V1 –Real time production by 4 Pus –Min. two PU run with DA SST & ice –Min. two PU run with bio-module –Consolidate into one forecast –Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S) n Objectives for V2 –Multi-model ensemble prediction

12. Marine Core Service Production : main achievements n Main achievements are n V0: –Baltic V0 products on ftp & THREDDS servers –User requests handled n V1: –V1 system has been set up –Incidents handled by DMI 24/7-staff –Requests handled by DU (DMI) –All PU has set up their own service desk by email n V1 Remaining objectives –Re-analysis in progress

13. Marine Core Service Examples of Products Objectives for V1 Twice daily 60 hour forecast Re-analysis (20 years with DA T/S)

14. Marine Core Service Reminder - Objectives for Cal / Val n Objectives n Calibrate bio-module n Validate opr products n Validate re-analysis n Issues n Several PUs to follow same procedure

15. Marine Core Service Cal/Val : main achievements n Main achievements n Validation period for 2007-2008 n Simulation done by 3 PUs n Extensive report showing Product Quality n Main difficulties n Lots of data transferred and lots of plots produced. n Remaining tasks n Same task (reduced no of figures) for V2

16. Marine Core Service Monthly mean surface current July in 2007 Sea level validation 2007-2008

17. Marine Core Service Sea level validation: comparison between Pus, 2007-2008 RMSD

18. Marine Core Service DMI Sea level validation: correlation vs RMSD

19. Marine Core Service Stations used for T/S profile validation

20. Marine Core Service Examples from validation simulation 2007-2008

21. Marine Core Service Examples from validation simulation, Arkona Basin, Temperature 2007

22. Marine Core Service Examples from validation simulation, Arkona Basin, Salinity 2007

23. Marine Core Service n Scientific Challenges –Improve vertical mixing modelling –Assimilation: T/S profiles, sea ice –Ecomodel Cal/Val –Multi-model ensemble –Optimise ice model Main Scientific Challenges

24. Marine Core Service n Technical Challenges –Coordinate data flow among partners –Implement the best practices in a single model n Operational Challenges –Responding on User Requests n Ultimate Challenges –There are already many operational models for the Baltic among MyOcean partners and outside MyOcean. It is important to coordinate MyOcean activities to show the benefit and better quality for all users of MyOcean products. Future Challenges

25. Marine Core Service n Past (event, work or tasks achieved) : –June 2009 : release 0.1 of HBM –January 2010 : first report of 3DVAR –November 2010 : release 1.0 of HBM –February 2011 : model HBM integrated and tested n Future : –(May/)June 2011 : V1 stream2 operational –October : Release 2.0 of HBM –December : Re-analysis in MyOcean catalogue and available for external users Calendar

26. Marine Core Service WP 11 EXPENSES Actual (March2010) Variance versus Budget Comments K€ % Coordination + 5+ 10%More… R&D - 10- 2%Less… Dev/Maint. Production Cal/Val WP Coordination 1st reporting period : Budget  Figures will be provided by PMO as soon as your partners have finished reporting and will be added to your presentation.  Be ready to give short explanations on main deviances during your presentation...  We are talking about estimated budget (best estimates) ! ~ 2 mn

27. Marine Core Service MY OCEAN MyOcean SAM, 27-28 April 2011, Rome, Italy Thank you!