1. The “Ambrose” (New York Bight) Jet: Climatology and Simulations of Coastally Enhanced Winds Brian A. Colle School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University- SUNY David Novak NOAA/ NWS Eastern Region Headquarters, Scientific Services Division, Bohemia, New York & Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York

2. 15 UTC PK13

3. 23 UTC PK34 G24

4. Motivation Jet can result in: Small craft advisory conditions Heightened rip current threat JFK air traffic changes (wind direction, speed, shear)

5. Study Questions How frequently does the New York Bight (NYB) Jet occur? What synoptic conditions favor the NYB Jet? What dynamics are responsible for the NYB Jet formation and evolution? Is the NYB Jet predictable?

6. Data Analyzed hourly data from Ambrose Light House (ALSN6) during 1997-2006. Used logarithmic wind profile eqn. assuming neutral stability conditions to reduce ASLN6 wind to 10 m height. Much of 2005 missing – so effective climatology period is nine years.

7. New York Bight Jet Definition Direction Range: 160-210 (S-SW) Intensity: one standard deviation over the climatological late afternoon (18 UTC-03 UTC) southerly (160-210) sustained wind max = 11 m/s (~22 kt) Width: Neighboring Bouy 44025 must have a sustained wind speed < 85% of the ALSN6 sustained wind speed. Condition checked +/- 1 h the time of maximum sustained wind at Ambrose. Timing: Maximum sustained wind recorded in 18-03 UTC period

8. Climatology 134 NYB Jet events recorded in nine year period Most frequent occurrence in April – July Suggests land/sea temperature contrast is important

9. Climatology Compare average monthly NYC temperature max to average monthly ALSN6 sea temperature: Temperature differences exceed 5 C during March-Aug. Suggests land/sea temperature contrast is important

10. Climatology Only ~4% of events with wind > ~15 m/s (~30 kt) 28% of events meet or exceed Small Craft Advisory wind conditions [~13 m/s (25 kt) wind speed]

11. Climatology Maximum wind in early evening, generally 2-3 h AFTER inland maximum temperature

12. Composite Hodograph Red (12 h before max) Blue (12 h after max) Light SW wind 8-12 h prior to max. Wind backs to SSE and strengthens 4-8 h prior to max. Wind veers and reaches maximum. Continues veering and weakening over next 12 h. Hodograph T=0 T= -12 T= +12

13. Sequential Events Sequential NYB jet events were often observed Seven occurrences of 2 consecutive days of events Three occurrences of 3 consecutive days of events Two occurrences of 4 consecutive days of events

14. Synoptic Composite Dates when the jet started Graphics created from CPC NARR Composite Page 500 mb Height -- ALL MSLP -- ALL 585 1020 1011 1021 MSLP – Small Craft Adv. days

15. Case Study June 2, 2007 High temperatures around 90 F inland, 70s near the coast. Ambrose 10 m sustained wind maximized at 25 kt at 22 UTC. 22Z 12Z

16. 1400 UTC

17. 1500 UTC

18. 1600 UTC

19. 1700 UTC

20. 1800 UTC

21. 1900 UTC

22. 2000 UTC

23. 2100 UTC

24. 2200 UTC

25. 2300 UTC

26. 0000 UTC

27. Case Study Jet core derived from TDWR was 34 kt at ~70 m (230 ft) !

28. Case Study 1541 UTC

29. Case Study Jet derived from ACARS was ~35 kt at ~200 m (600 ft), and found at top of inversion 2206 UTC

30. Model Simulations WRFv2.2 Initialized 00 UTC 2 June (~22 h prior to speed max) NOGAPS initial/boundary conditions (NAM SST) YSU PBL Thermal Diffusion land scheme 1.33 km resolution w/37 vertical levels MM5v3.6 Initialized 00 UTC 2 June (~22 h prior to speed max) NOGAPS initial/boundary conditions (NAM SST) Blackadar PBL Thermal Diffusion land scheme 1.33 km resolution w/37 vertical levels

31. 1.33-km WRF vs. Obs Model maximum within 0.5 m/s (1 kt) observed. Similar timing of wind speed and direction, except too much veering after max in model. 22Z 12Z

32. 1.33-km WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 1200 UTC

33. WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 1500 UTC

34. WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 1800 UTC

35. WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 2100 UTC

36. WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 0000 UTC

37. WRF Forecast SLP 100 m wind speed 0300 UTC

38. WRF Forecast Wind Speed (m/s) Theta (K) 400 200 600 800 1000 m 2100 UTC

39. WRF Forecast Wind Speed (m/s) Theta (K) 400 200 600 800 1000 m 2100 UTC

40. Does Resolution Matter? 12 km 1.3 km 15 m/s 16 m/s 17 m/s 4 km 16 m/s

41. 1.33-km MM5 vs. Obs Similar evolution, but jet 1-2h and too much veering after max in model. 23Z 12Z

42. Impact of Urban Heating Little or no impact from the additional urban heating 12Z CTL NOURBAN

43. Impact of Long Island Jet extends northward, but no further increase in jet strength 12Z CTL NOLI

44. Summary The New York Bight (“Ambrose”) Jet ‘season’ is Mar-Aug, although it can occur any time of the year. Approximately 15 events per year. Maximum wind speeds exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria ~ 28% of the time. Wind Speed Maximum nearly always observed between 21 and 00 UTC. Serial events common.

45. Summary (cont.) Jet favored on warm days in synoptic southwest flow on western flank of Bermuda high. SCA events had slightly stronger gradient and upstream disturbance. Land/sea temperature contrast appear to be critical to formation. Heating from NYC and Long Island does not enhance jet. 1.33 km WRF/MM5 capable of simulating key characteristics.