1. Has the economic downturn influenced school-leaver destinations? Presentation to the CEET Annual Conference 30 October 2009 Trish Corrie (DEECD) & Phillip McKenzie (ACER)

2. Table 1: Unemployment rate by age group, Victoria, Sept 2008 to Sept 2009 (%) Age group Sept 2008 Dec 2008 March 2009 June 2009 Sept 2009 15-644.44.55.45.9 15-1911.913.318.317.819.7 Source: ABS 2

3. Youth labour market changes Teenage unemployment has risen more sharply than general unemployment Broadly consistent with changes in youth education and employment patterns in previous downturns Early school leavers likely to be most at risk Need to monitor changes, feed information back to education providers, & target support to those at risk 3

4. 4 On Track is…. An annual Victorian post-school destination survey for Year 12 completers and early leavers Incoming Bracks Government initiative to provide destination information to schools, parents and students First survey 2003

5. 5 On Track Objectives In addition to the information commitment: Provide data on trends of post-school destinations over time Provide evidence of relationships between curriculum, location, gender, achievement and SES, and destinations Design longitudinal studies to better understand relationships Offer a referral service to those at risk

6. 6 Main features In scope? Consent process Data aids Government schools to set transition targets for specific cohorts and measure progress towards targets And DEECD corporate performance for Year 12 and early leaver transitions to education, training or full time employment is measured using On Track data

7. 7 Methodology Annual Year 12 and early leaver sample subject to bias check Telephone surveys conducted in April and May each year preceded by Victoria wide FM radio campaign to remind consenting students to participate when called. Parents as proxies may give current destination only Questionnaire development involves DEECD policy units each year Questionnaire pilot tested and ongoing briefings while in the field

8. Table 2: Respondents & response rates 8 ConsentedInterviewed Response Rate Year 12 or equivalent completers 2009 44 96836 02280.1% 2008 43 60733 24976.2% Early leavers 2009 8 8574 67652.8% 2008 8 8664 47053.5%

9. Figure 1: Destinations of Year 12 completers Victoria: 2008 and 2009 9

10. Year 12 completers and the current economic situation ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’ 22.4% said that it has had an influence on their decisions In what ways? … 10

11. Figure 3: Year 12 completers and the current economic situation 11

12. Figure 2: Destinations of Year 12 completers Deferrals: Victoria (2008 and 2009) 12 *Not in the labour force, education or training. This group is not included in other destination statistics. In 2008 seven deferrals were undertaking an apprenticeship or traineeship; they are not included here.

13. Figure 4: Destinations of early leavers Victoria: 2008 and 2009 13

14. Early leavers and the current economic situation ‘How has the current economic situation influenced your decisions about what to do after leaving school?’ 23.0% said that it has had an influence on their decisions. In what ways? … 14

15. Figure 5: Early leavers and the current economic situation (Victoria) 15

16. Conclusions Impact evident in increased education participation, decreased apprenticeships & traineeships, decreased employment, increased unemployment Increase in deferrals of tertiary education, but reduced capacity to finance entry Impact more marked for early leavers than completers Implications for preparing leavers and early intervention for those at-risk 16

17. On Track queries and publication details Please direct questions or comment to: Dr Trish Corrie On Track Project Manager t: 03.9637.2802 e: corrie.trish.k@edumail.vic.gov.au 17 All On Track publications are available at: http://www.education.vic.gov.au/sensecyouth/ontrack