1. Emerging challenges of expanding medical supply in the UK Dr Graham Willis, CfWI

2. If nothing changes by 2020

3. England will have at least 60% more medical consultants

4. The pay bill will rise by over £2 billion

5. We still will not have enough GPs

6. Some trainees starting out today will not get jobs

7. Some specialties will have too few consultants some too many

8. Geographical inequalities will still exist

9. The UK has never had consultant unemployment

10. Nor a consultant delivered service

11. A view from Scotland...

12. Foundation Exit : Scottish Foundation Trainee Destinations Source : 2009/10 NES F2 Cohort Survey; N=689, 86.3% Response

13. Scottish Medical Graduate Opportunities 2011-2020 82

14. Entry to Specialty Training : Applicants 2010 Source : NES Review of ST Applications 20101778 applicants, 2740 applications, 749 posts (Round 1)

15. Trajectory if undergraduate numbers reduced from 2011

16. Is this a problem or an opportunity?