1. Alternative Growth Futures Studio University of Colorado at Denver Sponsors: Custer Heritage Committee San Isabel Foundation Sonoran Institute

2. Alternative Growth Futures Studio The following is a presentation of a growth modeling study on Custer County, Colorado. The study:  Explores historical growth trends.  Presents methods for analyzing growth pressures.  Models growth based on statistical analysis.  Presents alternative visions for future growth.  Graphically displays specific growth scenarios utilizing GIS (Geographic Information Systems).

3. Alternative Growth Futures Studio  Project: explore alternative development scenarios for Custer County  Model: create and analyze digital maps of growth options

4. Custer County The past…  In 1870, Custer County had almost no year round residents.  By 1893, over 9,000 people called Custer County their home.  It will happen again...

5. Custer County Since 1990…  The county’s population has more than doubled.  88% of all privately held land has been sold.  45% of land buyers purchased 35+ acre parcels.  Over 12,000 acres have been developed.

6. Custer County The future…  By the year 2025: –Population is likely to increase to 8,147 –4,122 new homes are likely to be built –The county will be more urban than it is today. There will be a stoplight!

7. Alternative Growth Futures Objectives To present methods for analyzing growth and development pressures. To define alternative visions for future development within the county. To make forecasting tools available to the county.

8. Alternative Growth Futures Assumptions The year 2025:  Population (currently 3,760 residents) will increase to 8,147 residents  There will be 4,122 new households  7,047 of all residents (86%) will live in unincorporated parts of the county

9. Statistical Model  Evaluates historical patterns of development  Ranks all parcels according to development probabilities  Projects growth into the future based on scenarios  Basis for policy simulation

10. Alternative Growth Futures Scenarios Four development scenarios describe anticipated growth to the year 2025: – Historical Patterns – Open Space and Agricultural Protection – Cluster – Current Market Trends ALL SCENARIOS ASSUME THE SAME NUMBER OF NEW HOUSEHOLDS.

11. Alternative Growth Futures Scenarios

12. Historical Patterns Scenario  Averages historical development patterns across the county  Ranks parcels according to probability of development

15. Open Space and Agricultural Protection Scenario  Development locations constrained by resource values  Resource values defined by agricultural lands, natural habitat and water availability Agriculture Habitat Water Hayfields T&E Habitat Yield RangelandGame Habitat Depth Low Slopes Rare Plants

20. Cluster Scenario  Increases density of new development  Constrains location of growth by resource protection

21. Cluster Development  A well-planned cluster development concentrates development in suitable areas of a subdivision while preserving surrounding lands with highest resource value.

22. Cluster Development

23. Effects of Cluster Development Density Options for a 40-Unit Subdivision

24. Effects of Cluster Development Density Options Countywide

25. Cluster Development Potential to:  Accommodate projected future population  Decrease infrastructure requirements.  Preserve ranchland and open space.

26. Current Market Trends Scenario  Captures current market preference for larger lot development.  Average density of 35 acres / dwelling unit.  Assumes zoning change to permit PUDs

27. Impacts to Local Resources Acreage lost to development (based on Current Market Trends Scenario): Resource Acreage Lost Hayfields 29,873 Rangeland 93,632 T&E Species Habitat 17,635 Game Species Habitat 10,601

30. Current Development: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

35. Current Market Trends Scenario: 3-D Flythrough of Custer County

40. Alternative Growth Futures Summary  Most of the private land in the county will be developed by 2025 under current market trends  Current land markets favor development outside of towns at very low density (average lot sizes of between 15 and 40 acres)

41. Alternative Growth Futures Summary  It may be impossible to sustain a viable ranching economy in the county without strengthening zoning protections.  Higher density development permits the county to absorb the same number of homes while protecting natural resources.

43. What is important to you?