1. U N I T E D S T A T E S D E P A R T M E N T O F C O M M E R C E N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: CPC Operational Outlooks and Other Applications Jon Gottschalck Acting Chief, Operational Prediction Branch NWS / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction College Park, MD February 10-13, 2014

2. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Outline Brief commentary on applications perspective of S2S CPC operational outlooks spanning S2S Forecast horizons  Week-2, Monthly and Seasonal outlooks Outlook types  Drought, Extremes Other S2S applications perspectives CPC ongoing and planned work relevant to S2S

3. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Brief commentary on applications perspective of S2S CPC operational outlooks spanning S2S Forecast horizons  Week-2, Monthly and Seasonal outlooks Outlook types  Drought, Extremes Other S2S applications perspectives CPC ongoing and planned work relevant to S2S

4. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Applications Perspective of S2S The demand for short-term climate information is growing exponentially Wide range of disciplines and sectors are inquiring since weather and climate affect nearly everything in our planning Real world decisions are actively being made every day using S2S climate information, often inappropriately out of necessity Define S2S for this discussion as info from Week-2 out to a season

5. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Applications Perspective of S2S Energy sector requires advanced lead time for extended periods of much above- or below-normal temperatures Need to stage resources, minimize economic losses due to extremes

6. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Applications Perspective of S2S Typhoon Haiyan in Philippines Aid organizations need probabilistic outlooks for tropical cyclone activity at subseasonal lead times (before and after) Often need to stage resources or understand risk of additional high impacts weather events during recovery efforts

7. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Applications Perspective of S2S The water resources sector needs information on drought tendency (worsening or improving) at seasonal lead times Drought in Southwest and Plains during 2011

8. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Brief commentary on applications perspective of S2S CPC operational outlooks spanning S2S Forecast horizons  Week-2, Monthly and Seasonal outlooks Outlook types  Drought, Extremes Other S2S applications perspectives CPC ongoing and planned work relevant to S2S

9. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N CPC Subseasonal to Seasonal Outlooks OutlookVariablesTypeFrequencyRelease Date and Time Days 8-14Temp/PrecipProbabilisticDaily 3 PM ET MonthlyTemp/PrecipProbabilistic2x per month3 rd Thurs of month / Last day of month 8:30 AM, 3 PM ET SeasonalTemp/PrecipProbabilistic1x per month3 rd Thursday of month 8:30 AM ET Monthly drought Drought tendency Categorical1x per monthLast day of month3 PM ET Seasonal drought Drought tendency Categorical1x per month3 rd Thursday of month 8:30 AM ET U.S. Hazards Temps, precip, winds, etc. CategoricalDailyMonday - Friday3 PM ET Global Tropics, Africa, etc. Precip, TCs, etc. CategoricalWeeklyTuesday or Wednesday 12 PM ET

10. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Week-2 Outlook

11. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Week-2 Outlooks Forecaster considerations: Overall model system agreement Ensemble spread Run-to-run continuity, outliers Consistency with tropical forcing? Slowly evolving boundary conditions (snow, soil moisture, local SSTs)

12. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Week-2 Outlooks ESRL Reforecast – Hindcast Calibration NAEFS –Recent Conditions Calibration

13. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks Monthly Seasonal

14. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Forecast Guidance (1)ENSO and MJO (2)Snow cover, soil moisture, local SSTS (3)Statistical guidance CCA Constructed analogues Trends (4) Dynamical guidance Climate Forecast System (CFS)

15. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N MJO Prediction is One Thing U.S. CLIVAR MJO Working Group and MJO Task Force adopted this metric as a uniform diagnostic for MJO identification, skill evaluation and display of MJO forecasts MJO Task Force Yellow Lines: 20 Individual Members, Green Line: Ensemble Mean RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts for the next 30 days Light gray shading: 90% of forecasts, dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Realtime data contributions to CPC from operational international centers

16. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N MJO Teleconnection is Another Rainfall, Diabatic Heating Theoretical dispersion model Lagged 200-hPa height MJO composites JFM MJO Simultaneous Temperature composites

17. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Boundary Forcings Soil moisture Snow cover Local SSTs

18. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N ENSO and Seasonal Outlook National Multi Model Ensemble

19. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Drought Outlooks Drought category tendency outlooks (monthly and seasonal) Range of timescales used: --Short-, medium-, extended-and long-range model guidance and forecast tools --CPC extended range, monthly and seasonal outlooks Impact of climatological wet and dry seasons also play a role

20. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Extremes High demand for probabilistic information for the tails of the distribution Stakeholders can make decisions and act on far from perfect information Prefer to see low probabilities on maps so they are not surprised Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) CPC Days 8-14 U.S. Hazards Outlook

21. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Extremes Identification and prediction of coherent tropical subseasonal and seasonal variability are important for S2S TC prediction MJO and ENSO but also atmospheric Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, etc. CFS tropical cyclone guidance

22. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Brief commentary on applications perspective of S2S CPC operational outlooks spanning S2S Forecast horizons  Week-2, Monthly and Seasonal outlooks Outlook types  Drought, Extremes Other S2S applications perspectives CPC ongoing and planned work relevant to S2S

23. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Hungry Private Sector The private sector is a tremendous user of S2S climate information (especially data) Willing to pay and have large staffs to process, display and interpret S2S data from numerous sources to provide actionable information to their clients Demand is international with sectors in the energy, financial, agriculture and water resources industries trying to find an edge

24. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Attribution Another key application of S2S information is better understanding of persistent short-term climate events that produce large impacts Can a predictable forcing be identified? Is this purely natural variability? Can we learn anything from this? 30 day average 60 day average 90 day average

25. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Interpretation and Communication There is an increasing need for S2S climate information to be properly interpreted / communicated to the public The advent of social media and the 24/7 news cycle have often made S2S information front page news This can be a hardship at times for operational centers, but it is an important opportunity

26. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Brief commentary on applications perspective of S2S CPC operational outlooks spanning S2S Forecast horizons  Week-2, Monthly and Seasonal outlooks Outlook types  Drought, Extremes Other S2S applications perspectives CPC ongoing and planned work relevant to S2S

27. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N CPC Work Related to S2S Development of an objective, skill weighted consolidation for 500-hPa height, temperature and precipitation Week-2 official outlooks Development of a probabilistic Week-2 U.S. Hazards outlook Assessment of the predictability of the AO, MJO teleconnection and Arctic sea ice in the Climate Forecast System Inclusion of the NMME into the official CPC seasonal temperature and precipitation consolidation

28. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Toward Week 3-4 Official Outlooks? Week-2 1-3 months Week 3-4?? Courtesy David Novak, WPC

29. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Toward Week 3-4 Official Outlooks? CPC has as a major goal in its 5-year strategic plan to develop official Week 3-4 operational outlooks Many challenges to overcome  Is there a scientific basis for a forecast at this time horizon?  If so, would they be reliable?  What would be the frequency and format of a product? Determining the inventory of information relevant to this forecast time horizon CFS Week-3 500-hPa forecast

30. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Summary The demand for short-term climate information is huge and includes raw data, outlooks, interpretation and attribution, spanning many sectors both domestically and internationally CPC has numerous operational outlooks that span the S2S outlook horizon with a set launch schedule CPC is actively evaluating the prospects for experimental Week 3-4 operational outlooks over the next 1-3 years

31. N A T I O N A L O C E A N I C A N D A T M O S P H E R I C A D M I N I S T R A T I O N Questions and Comments Thank you for your attention Feel free to contact me anytime via e-mail if you have comments or questions. Jon.Gottschalck@noaa.gov