1. The State of Commodities Boom, Bubble or Bust? Julia E. Bussie, CMT Money Mentor Solana Beach, CA October 9, 2004

2. Commodity Research Bureau – CRB Index Is It Over?

3. Headlines “Looking for the Next Bubble” – Feb, 2004 “The Great Commodities Bull” – Feb, 2004 “It’s a Bubble” – April, 2004 “You Too Can Tap Gushing Commodities Prices” – June, 2004 “Explosion Ahead for Commodity Prices” – July, 2004 “A New Secular Bull Market” – Sept, 2004

4. Bull Markets Topping in 2004 March Soybean Oil Copper April Corn CRB Gold Platinum Soybeans Soybean Meal Silver Wheat May Gasoline Lumber Hogs Pork Bellies June Feeder Cattle

5. Bear Market Rally Highs 2004 March Oats April Palladium May Dollar Natural Gas June Live Cattle August Cocoa

6. Odd Men Out Orange Juice Cotton Sugar Still Bullish Crude Oil and Heating Oil

7. Non-specific Fundamental Factors Fear U.S. Dollar Globalization

8. Globalization Factor - China Population Land mass Arable land Fresh water Oil

9. Population -Over-riding factor

10. Chinese Demand Cement Steel Iron Ore Coal Aluminum Oil Copper Platinum Grains Soybeans Cotton Meat

11. Supply has a way of compensating for demand.

12. Improved efficiency Scientific advances Innovations in production methods New mineral exploration Recycling Response to Higher Prices

13. Gold Annual Production

14. Source: IMF Staff Papers, 2002 Paul Cashin, C. John McDermott

25. The Big Picture

27. Questions?