2. WRAP Emission Inventory EI’s traditionally consider 4 sectors : – Stationary Point Sources – Area Sources – Mobile Sources – Biogenic Sources

3. WRAP Emission Inventory Fire is a unique, hard to quantify and potential significant source, therefore it is treated as a separate category in WRAP : – Stationary Point Sources – Area Sources – Mobile Sources – Biogenic Sources – Fire

4. WRAP Emission Inventory WRAP Emission Forum Produced: –Stationary Point Sources Inventory –Area Sources Inventory WRAP Mobile Sources Forum Produced: –On-Road Mobile Sources Inventory (tailpipe, evaporative, tire & brake wear emissions) –Off-Road Mobile Sources Inventory (tailpipe & evaporative emissions only) –Paved & Unpaved Road Dust Inventory (PM only) WRAP Fire Emissions Joint Forum Produced: –Wildfire Inventory (WF) –Prescribed Fire Inventory (Rx) –Agricultural Fire Inventory (Ag)

5. WRAP Emission Inventory Biogenics Inventory – produced from the SMOKE Emissions Preprocessor (BEIS2) by the Modeling Forum –Inventory data totals are not readily available, therefore they have been approximated: SMOKE calculates a Tons/Day value for each state RMC ran one day per month (12 values) Resultant average daily totals summed by month Resultant monthly totals summed for the year Biogenics Emissions = VOC & NO only –VOC = Aldehydes, Olefins, Paraffins & Isoprenes 1996 & 2018 Biogenics EI’s are identical (no meteorology predicted for 2018)

6. WRAP Emission Inventory 7 visibility related pollutants inventoried by the WRAP include: –Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) –Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) –Carbon Monoxide (CO) –Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) –Particulate under 10 microns (PM10) –Particulate under 2.5 microns (PM2.5) –Ammonia (NH3)

7. WRAP Emission Inventory The WRAP Emission Inventory was compiled for two separate years: – 1996 => Modeling Base Year – 2018 => Modeling Projection Year End of the first “Planning Period” under the Regional Haze Rule. Comparison year for determining Regional Haze “Reasonable Progress” and the “Better than BART” demonstration for the Market Trading Program

8. WRAP Emission Inventory The geographic domain for the WRAP modeling effort includes: –13 “contiguous” WRAP States (AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, ND, NM, NV, OR, SD, UT, WA & WY) {excluding Alaska: not in the modeling domain} – 9 CENRAP States (NB, KA, OK, TX, MN, IA, MO, AK & LA)

10. International Emission Inventory Canada - Incomplete EI from MCNC Files –1995 Data Area, Mobile & Non-Road Sources Only NO Point Source Data Partially grown for 2018 –Portion of the SCC’s were available in EGAS Model –No additional Emission Control’s were applied –EPA is working with Canada to obtain an updated Emission Inventory Because of confidentiality restrictions, point source data will be presented as grided totals – no individual locations or stack parameters –4KM grid files - speciated & temporally allocated

11. International Emission Inventory Mexico – Crude EI Produced by ERG –NW Mexican States: Baja California Norte, Sonora & Chihuahua –Incomplete Point Source Inventory 3 large sources considered by GCVTC: two copper smelters Nacozari (-15,000 TPY SO 2 ) & Cananea (-150,000 TPY SO 2 in 1996, shut down in 1999); as well as Carbon I and II coal-fired power units (-100,000 TPY SO 2 each) -- (Data available for all 7 pollutants at these 3 sources) 15 other point sources -- SO 2 data only available –Gross Estimated Area Source Inventory extrapolated from urban area emissions for three border towns (Ciudad Juarez, Mexicali & Tijuana); spatially allocated by population data assumes a city profile: ie/ more mobile source contribution & less agricultural dust than is really present in rural areas –EI “flat-lined” for 2018 because of the large uncertainties –ERG is working on an update under WGA Contract 6 northern Mexican States by 7/03; entire country by 10/04

12. WRAP Emission Inventory For the 1996 EI Summary Results presented here: –No Wind Erosion Fugitive Dust is included Emission Forum is currently working to “fill” that hole for the Fugitive Dust inventory –No Agricultural Fire data was available –The original 1996 Point Source inventory has just been updated (Sept. 2002) to correct errors found by a QA audit of the file.

13. WRAP Emission Inventory The only data compiled for the 9 CENRAP states by the Forums was for the point & area Emission Inventories, while the Mobile & Fire Forums compiled specific EI data for the 13 WRAP states only All CENRAP data was based on the EPA’s NET Emission Inventory, whether compiled by the Forums (point & area), or not (mobile & fire) Because the area source files for the 13 WRAP states had no Paved/Unpaved Road Dust Emissions, the Mobile Sources Forum compiled this information separately (it was included in the area source files for the CENRAP states)

14. WRAP Emission Inventory 2018 Projections were made for several different scenarios: –Point Source Inventory SO2 change only – Only for the 9 GCVTC States –2018 Base Case (642K tons) –Annex Milestones Case (510K tons) –Command & Control Implementation Case (486K tons) –Command & Control w/ Uncertainty Case (550K tons) –Wildfire: 1996 abnormally high ˆ an “average” wildfire year was calculated and used for 2018 –Prescribed Burning & Agricultural Fire –2018 Base Case –No Smoke Management Case –Optimal Smoke Management Case –Area, Mobile Sources & Road Dust only one Projection made

15. WRAP Emission Inventory Scenarios selected for the 2018 EI Summary Results presented here: –Point Source Inventory - Annex Milestones Case –Prescribed Burning - Optimal Smoke Management –Agricultural Fire - Optimal Smoke Management

17. VOC Emissions 1996 2018 4,206,010 T 2,934,753 T Decrease = 1,271,257 Tons (-30%) from 1996

18. VOC Emissions w/ Biogenics 1996 2018 11,204,430 T 9,933,173 T

19. NOx Emissions 1996 2018 4,720,236 T 3,420,264 T Decrease = 1,299,971 Tons (-28%) from 1996

20. NOx Emissions w/ Biogenics 1996 2018 5,269,970 T 3,969,999 T

21. CO Emissions 1996 2018 31,604,076 T 21,926,479 T Decrease = 9,677,597 Tons (-31%) from 1996

22. SO2 Emissions 1996 2018 1,600,385 T 1,348,562 T Decrease = 251,804 Tons (-16%) from 1996

23. PM-10 Emissions 1996 2018 3,547,239 T 3,682,775 T Increase = 136,536 Tons (+4%) from 1996

24. PM-2.5 Emissions 1996 2018 1,547,661 T 1,620,072 T Increase = 72,412 Tons (+5 %) from 1996

25. NH3 Emissions 1996 2018 1,020,120 T 1,157,569 T Increase = 137,459 T (+13%) from 1996

26. WRAP Emission Inventory Changes in WRAP EI between 1996 & 2018: – VOCdown 30% – NOxdown 28% – COdown 31% – SO2down 16% – PM10up 4% – PM2.5up 5% – NH3up 13%

27. WRAP Emission Inventory Detailed charts with summaries of the emission totals have been included in your binder here at the meeting. The spreadsheets and data files are posted on the WRAP Website for downloading at your convenience – (www.wrapair.org) “Emission Forum Page”