1. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Numerical modeling of air quality: also a challenge for scientists south of Río Grande! Laura Gallardo Centro de Modelamiento Matemático, Universidad de Chile, UMI CNRS 2087, Casilla 170-3, Santiago, Chile, lgallard@dim.uchile.cl

2. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu “...Andando en un camino encontré al aire, lo saludé y le dije...no sé quién eres, pero una cosa te pido, no te vendas...” El libro de las odas, Pablo Neruda Outline Air quality: VERY complex problemS… One of many tools: air quality models Which is the situation South of Río Grande? What’s next?: A challenge and an opportunity Summary

3. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu The most important) air pollution problem in South America is associated to the continental scale biomass burning during the dry season. With over a hundred of thousands of fires each year … A very important ( The most important) air pollution problem in South America is associated to the continental scale biomass burning during the dry season. With over a hundred of thousands of fires each year … MODIS Rapid Response System 08/25/2002 – 14:15UTC Freitas et al, 2004

4. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu 26 - 29 Simulation 23 – 31/ August/ 2002 Aeronet data: Cordoba and Buenos Aires Affecting far beyond Amazonia Freitas et al, 2004

5. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Also ENORMOUS point sources of pollutants…again, not only health issues Wood et al, VOCALS plan 2005; Huneeus et al, 2006 Chuquicamata ~106GgS/yr CDNC

6. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu And impresive and badly characterized natural sources e.g., volcanic fumarolic emissions

7. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Credit: C. Mayhew & R. Simmon (NASA/GSFC), NOAA/ NGDC, DMSP Digital ArchiveR. SimmonNASAGSFCNOAANGDC DMSP M-cities in SCA > 75% of South Americans live in M-cities!! The M-city issue in SCA

8. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Living in M-cities…for some rather wealthy but not that healthy! Bogotá Santiago São Paulo M-cities gather problems and increase vulnerability …from health issues to climate change

9. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Often a bad combination of factors and events/decisions… ¡Fértil provincia! Santiago del Nuevo Extremo, Valle central de Chile Pacific High/Coastal Lows + 6 M inhabitants and growing 60% of Chile’s economic activity Lousy transportation system

10. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu In most cities, environmental policies are targeted at first towards diminishing acute health impacts Emission inventories are compiled Monitoring networks are implemented Measures are enforced, i.e., point sources are reduced Environmental standards or guidelines are adopted Sao Paulo, Brazil

11. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu When the objectives become more ambitious (long-term impacts, more expensive and less obvious measures, etc.) Emission inventories have to be more accurate and be used in combination with models Regional monitoring networks are needed Efforts are oriented towards traffic emissions and planning Santiago, Chile

12. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu A SYSTEMIC APPROACH IS NEEDED: air quality modeling is one of the many concurring tools… Molina & Molina, 2002

13. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Dispersion and transformations EmissionsRemoval +IC & BC Lavoisier, 1789

14. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Emission inventories Observations

15. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu From molecular interactions to planetary waves...all at once!

16. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Are there any models around?... PLENTY!!!! WRF MATCH BRAMS POLYPHEMUS UAM-V CAMx CMAQ KAMM etc DGF/ WRF CMM/MATCH/POLY PHEMUS PUC/CAM x DMC/POLYPHEMUS USACH/ CAMx

17. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Computers have become affordable and there are fast connections

18. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu In most M-cities where attainement plans have been developed, there are: Emission inventories for particulate matter, NOx, SOx,CO, HC, etc. Air quality data for “criteria pollutants” (CO, O 3, NO 2, SO 2, PM10, etc.) Methodologies change from city to city and even from year to year within a city Calibration and validation procedures and traditions differ a lot among cities Data are not always easily accessed The foci in analyses and sampling is very local and related to acute health issues These data are not included in global data bases Lack of PEOPLE and coordination!!!! There is information …But 

19. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu What’s next? Training and building of networks –Short and long-term (PhD) training and exchange programs –Symposia and Conferences –Connecting with global programs: ESSP…IGBP… IGAC Developing regional capabilities –Regional monitoring network and database (GAW/GURME) –Regional emission network and database (GEIA/AIMES) –Regional computer center and network (CLARA…) Finding key questions/problems –Biomass burning…pyrocumulus –Megacities…data assimilation –Megasources…aerosol-cloud-climate –Etc. IGAC workshop Oct 2005 @ Santiago de Chile

20. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu A dear case: South American Emissions, Megacities and Climate (SAEMC, 2006-2010) To provide accurate regional emissions and climate change scenarios for South America, with emphasis on the impacts of and on megacities. To establish the basis for operational chemical weather forecast for South American megacities. To strengthen and expand an active research and capacity building network in the Americas functional to Earth System Modeling. Mobile and Stationary emissions scenarios estimate and evaluation Dynamical down-scaling of climate change scenarios Pilot implementation of chemical weather forecast network and tools for South American megacities Prospective characterization of aerosols in and downwind from South American megacities.

21. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu Summary To take over the world! Air quality modeling capabilities exist and they keep growing in the region, but there are few people There are growing needs for AQM applications There is an appalling lack of observations and reliable emission data Regional capabilities must be developed Networking and collaboration are the key steps forward

22. LGK Apr'06 Iguazu See you in Cape Town, September 17- 23, 2006!! http://www.atmosphericinterfaces2006.co.za/