1. Angola: Perspectives on the Financial Crisis
Ricardo Gazel
Second AFR Economists Retreat
Johannesburg, South Africa
December 5, 2008

2. Impact on Financial Sector
Likely small as:
No stock market
No strong connection of domestic bank system with international financial markets (except via Portuguese banks)
Small interbaking credit market
Low loans to deposit ratios
Solid macroeconomic indicators: budget surplus, high international reserves, low external debt.

3. Net International Reserves US$ Millions

4. Demand Deposit (Millions Kz)
Demand Deposit Foreign Currency
Demand Deposit Domestic Currency

5. Impact on Inflation
A stronger dollar can have an impact on inflation as import prices from Europen goods would be lower in Kwanzas

6. Yearly Inflation

7. Inflation – Year-over-Year
Food 2008
Food 2007
CPI 2008
CPI 2007

8. Exchange Rate: Nominal and Real

10. Impact on Real Economy Real Economy: Investment and Capital Flows
Lower price of oil – lower government revenues and lower national income
Lower government demand – lower growth of non-oil sector
Investment and Capital Flows
Less liquidity in international credit markets can reduce investment flows as price of capital increases
Higher Costs of Government Financing

11. Exports: US$ Millions

12. OPEC Reference Basket Price 2008 - Daily

13. Oil Exports: Volume and Price

14. Oil Exports (US$ millions)

15. Real Growth Rates 2007 – 2009 % Year 2007 2008 2009
Oil Sector:
Non Oil Sector:
GDP Total:

16. I. Economic Growth

17. OIL Production Million Barrels per Day OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

18. Real Growth Rates 2007 – 2009 % Year 2007 2008 2009
Oil Sector:
Non Oil Sector:
GDP Total:

19. Imports: US$ Millions and % of Composition

20. Fiscal Accounts: Revenues Billions of Kwanzas)

21. Fiscal Accounts: Growth Rates % over previous year

22. Fiscal Accounts: Revenues and Expenditures (% do GDP)

23. Fiscal Accounts: Revenues and Expenditures (% do GDP)

24. External Debt including Arrears