1. Great South Bay Restoration Tools Principal Investigators: R. Cerrato, J. Collier, C. Flagg, M. Frisk, C. Gobler, D. Lonsdale, G. Lopez, S. Munch, B. Peterson, R. Wilson Graduate Students: J. Carroll, D. Duvall, C. Harrington, M. McNamara, M. Nuttall, X. Jiang, J. Pan, M. Sugeno C. Wall School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook University Stony Brook, NY

2. Hard Clams 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1975198019851990199520002005 Thousands of Bushels Recent changes in Great South Bay Winter flounder 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 193819832007 Abundance Eelgrass 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1984Today grams per square meter Value of commercial landings Suffolk County Population (US census)

3. Harvesting of sublegal sizes Harvesting of sublegal sizes Habitat change/loss Habitat change/loss Changes in inlet configuration (shoaling/dredging) Changes in inlet configuration (shoaling/dredging) Decline in water quality Decline in water quality Natural cycles Natural cycles Brown tide Brown tide Climate change Climate change Disease/parasites Disease/parasites Reproductive failure Reproductive failure Predation (ctenophores, crabs, whelks) Diversion of freshwater by treatment plant Shift in plankton structure Loss of feedback effects Nutrient cycle changes Removal from closed areas Groundwater changes Pollution Pollution ■ Overharvesting Many Possible Causes for Declines

4. Policy options for restoring GSB Reduce nutrient input Reduce nutrient input require all south shore homes to be on sewers require all south shore homes to be on sewers regulate boat discharge regulate boat discharge regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading) regulation of TMDL (total max daily loading) Add clams to the system, create spawner sanctuaries Add clams to the system, create spawner sanctuaries Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish / shellfish Eliminate / restrict recreational landings of fish / shellfish Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Reduce shoreline hardening / increase saltmarsh area Plant seagrass Plant seagrass Remove invasive species Remove invasive species Promote harvest of blue crabs / whelks Promote harvest of blue crabs / whelks

5. Which policy options are most likely to succeed? Too many plausible options…. Which of these will be the most cost effective? e.g. Seeding of clams v. Harvest of predators What would be the most efficient implementation? e.g. Where should clams be deposited? How many do we need?

6. Project Goal Provide managers and policy makers a tool for evaluating the likely success of various management strategies. Provide managers and policy makers a tool for evaluating the likely success of various management strategies. Tasks construct a model of GSB which represents all of the major components of the ecosystem. construct a model of GSB which represents all of the major components of the ecosystem.

7. Roadmap Compile all existing data on GSB Compile all existing data on GSB Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps in knowledge Conduct experiments to fill in critical gaps in knowledge Create software to model GSB ecosystem and user interface Create software to model GSB ecosystem and user interface Field studies to validate the model. Field studies to validate the model. Physical model (temperature, salinity, light, flow) Food web model (nutrients, plankton, seagrass, crabs, clams, fish) Management actions

8. Westward Winds Physical model predicts salinity, temperature, and flow Salinity Flow

9. Phytoplankton Seagrass Zooplankton Clams Crabs Fish Deposit feeders Sediment Nutrients Sediment Input Predator-prey interaction Indirect interaction Food Web Model Components

10. Additional Benefits Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., disease outbreak, storm created breach) Examine impact of “surprises” (e.g., disease outbreak, storm created breach) Forecast impact of future development Forecast impact of future development

11. Summary There are many possible policy options for restoring GSB There are many possible policy options for restoring GSB Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential for success of various restoration strategies Currently develop a tool for evaluating potential for success of various restoration strategies Model construction underway Model construction underway Preliminary software expected this summer Preliminary software expected this summer Future work will include economic evaluation of costs Future work will include economic evaluation of costs