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Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 STAT 101 Dr. Kari Lock Morgan Multiple Regression SECTION 10.3 Variable selection Confounding variables.

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Presentation on theme: "Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 STAT 101 Dr. Kari Lock Morgan Multiple Regression SECTION 10.3 Variable selection Confounding variables."— Presentation transcript:

1 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 STAT 101 Dr. Kari Lock Morgan Multiple Regression SECTION 10.3 Variable selection Confounding variables revisited Brief look at logistic regression

2 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Model Output

3 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 R 2 versus Adjusted R 2 If you want to evaluate the success of the model, in terms of the percentage of the variability in the response explained by the explanatory variables, you would use a) R 2 b) Adjusted R 2

4 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 R 2 versus Adjusted R 2 If you want to compare two competing models and decide whether a certain explanatory should be included or not, you would use a) R 2 b) Adjusted R 2 R 2 always increases or stays the same with additional explanatory variables, even if they are worthless. Adjusted R 2 should go down if non- useful variables are added.

5 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Variable Selection The p-value for an explanatory variable can be taken as a rough measure for how helpful that explanatory variable is to the model Insignificant variables may be pruned from the model, as long as adjusted R 2 doesn’t decrease You can also look at relationships between explanatory variables; if two are strongly associated, perhaps both are not necessary

6 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Variable Selection (Some) ways of deciding whether a variable should be included in the model or not: 1.Does it improve adjusted R 2 ? 2.Does it have a low p-value? 3.Is it associated with the response by itself? 4.Is it strongly associated with another explanatory variables? (If yes, then including both may be redundant) 5.Does common sense say it should contribute to the model?

7 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Stepwise Regression We could go through and think hard about which variables to include, or we could automate the process Stepwise regression drops insignificant variables one by one This is particularly useful if you have many potential explanatory variables

8 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Full Model Highest p-value

9 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 1 Highest p-value

10 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 2 Highest p-value

11 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 3 Highest p-value

12 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 4 Highest p-value

13 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 5 Highest p-value

14 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 6

15 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 5

16 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 7

17 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Pruned Model 5 FINAL STEPWISE MODEL

18 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Full Model

19 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Variable Selection There is no one “best” model Choosing a model is just as much an art as a science Adjusted R 2 is just one possible criteria To learn much more about choosing the best model, take STAT 210

20 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy Cases: countries of the world Response variable: life expectancy Explanatory variable: electricity use (kWh per capita) Is a country’s electricity use helpful in predicting life expectancy?

21 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy

22 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy Outlier: Iceland

23 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy

24 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy Is this a good model for predicting life expectancy based on electricity use? (a) Yes (b) No The association is definitely not linear.

25 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy Is a country’s electricity use helpful in predicting life expectancy? (a) Yes (b) No The p-value for electricity is significant.

26 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy

27 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy If we increased electricity use in a country, would life expectancy increase? (a) Yes (b) No (c) Impossible to tell We cannot make any conclusions about causality, because this is observational data.

28 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy If we increased electricity use in a country, would life expectancy increase? (a) Yes (b) No (c) Impossible to tell We cannot make any conclusions about causality, because this is observational data.

29 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Confounding Variables Wealth is an obvious confounding variable that could explain the relationship between electricity use and life expectancy Multiple regression is a powerful tool that allows us to account for confounding variables We can see whether an explanatory variable is still significant, even after including potential confounding variables in the model

30 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Electricity and Life Expectancy Is a country’s electricity use helpful in predicting life expectancy, even after including GDP in the model? (a) Yes(b) No Once GDP is accounted for, electricity use is no longer a significant predictor of life expectancy.

31 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Which is the “best” model? (a) (b) (c) You could argue for (c) as well, but I would choose (b), because it has the highest adjusted R 2

32 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Cases: countries of the world Response variable: life expectancy Explanatory variable: number of mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people Is a country’s cell phone subscription rate helpful in predicting life expectancy? Cell Phones and Life Expectancy

33 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Cell Phones and Life Expectancy

34 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Cell Phones and Life Expectancy

35 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Cell Phones and Life Expectancy

36 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Is this a good model for predicting life expectancy based on cell phone subscriptions? (a) Yes (b) No Cell Phones and Life Expectancy The association is linear, the variability seems approximately constant, and the residuals look approximately normal. There is a bit of concern by the slight possible downward trend towards the end of the residual plot, so if you answered no for that reason, that is okay as well.

37 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Is a country’s number of cell phone subscriptions per capita helpful in predicting life expectancy? (a) Yes (b) No Cell Phones and Life Expectancy The p-value for cell indicates strong significance.

38 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 If we gave everyone in a country a cell phone and a cell phone subscription, would life expectancy in that country increase? (a) Yes (b) No (c) Impossible to tell Cell Phones and Life Expectancy Again, we cannot make causal conclusions.

39 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Is a country’s cell phone subscription rate helpful in predicting life expectancy, even after including GDP in the model? (a) Yes(b) No Even after accounting for GDP, cell phone subscriptions per capita is still a significant predictor of life expectancy. Cell Phones and Life Expectancy The p-value for Cell still denotes strong significance, even with GDP in the model.

40 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Cell Phones and Life Expectancy This says that wealth alone can not explain the association between cell phone subscriptions and life expectancy This suggests that either cell phones actually do something to increase life expectancy (causal) OR there is another confounding variable besides wealth of the country

41 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 Confounding Variables Multiple regression is one potential way to account for confounding variables This is most commonly used in practice across a wide variety of fields, but is quite sensitive to the conditions for the linear model (particularly linearity) You can only “rule out” confounding variables that you have data on, so it is still very hard to make true causal conclusions without a randomized experiment

42 Statistics: Unlocking the Power of Data Lock 5 To Do Read 10.3 Do Homework 8 (due Wednesday, 4/16) Do Project 2 (due Wednesday, 4/23)

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