1. The Black Swan, the turkey, and the bell curve

2. For our turkey, Every day is a good day

3. …UNTIL the highly improbable occurs... An outlier? Yes Extreme impact? Yes Retrospective hindsight? Yes Thanksgiving is the turkey’s Black Swan event!

4. Bell Curves Frequency

5. Bell curves help to hide black swans The Experiment Toss 10 identical coins (Heads/Tails) Note results Repeat 999 other times Plot results on Bell Curve

6. Bell Curves Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable” Frequency What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Medium sizeNo seismic activity Catastrophic Black Swan territory

7. Bell Curves What if were looking at the distribution of earthquakes? Bell curves hide randomness and the “unpredictable” 6 Frequency Black Swan territory

8. So What?  We want to avoid being the turkey!  No one agency can do this alone  The past doesn’t prepare us for the future  Avoid the temptation to revert to “ABC Agency always provides XYZ after a disaster”  We can’t predict the future, nor Black Swan events, but they will happen  Pre-event coordination is critical!  By focusing on the “most likely” events, we’re blind to Black Swans

9. What can we do about it?  Turn Black Swans into white swans by  Identifying areas of vulnerability  Addressing areas of vulnerability  Continuously adapting to avoid becoming the turkey

10. How do you make sure there are no gaps in the jar??? 9

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12. Why Partner with Voluntary, Faith-Based and Community Based Organizations ?  Understanding local needs  Flexible  High impact / low cost Avoid becoming the turkey!

13. Avoid Predictable Surprises