1. Societal Change, Care Need and Long-term Care Workforce in Selected European Countries NEUJOBS WP 12 Health care, goods and sevices for an ageing population Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event: Employment 2025 - How Will Multiple Transitions Affect the European Labor Market?

2. 1 Long-term care workforce Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 2 Long-term care is provided by informal and formal caretaker Depending on the institutional settings, the long-term care system relies more or less on formal care In most countries, informal care (family) is the main source for people in need of care Demographic ageing increases the share of people in need for care and – at the same time – decreases the informal care potential The impact on the formal workforce depends on country specific settings and assumptions on the future development

3. 1 Research agenda Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 3 What is the impact of societal change on the demand for and supply of formal care?  Detailed analysis for five countries  Germany  Denmark  Italy  Poland  Slovakia

4. 1 Tasks Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 4  A Employment situation in institutional long-term care and professional home care services  B Impact of demographic change  C Impact of changing household structures, family structures and living arrangements on the demand for formal care  D Impact on employment

5. Johannes Geyer 5 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 1 Need of care and care giving arrangements 2 Long-term care workforce – current situation 3 Future development of factors influencing the long-term care workforce and demand for care; and changes in labour supply 4 Discussion Outline

6. 1 Dependency rates (in %) by age groups in selected countries (2010) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 6

7. 1 Age-structure of the dependend population in selected countries (2010) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 7 Denmark: 0.37 Mio. Germany: 7.9 Mio. Italy: 3.1 Mio. Poland: 2.5 Mio. Slovakia 0.48 Mio. Total: 14.3 Mio.

8. 1 Formal and informal care arrangements Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 8

9. Informal caregiver Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 9 1

10. Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 10 2 Long-term care workforce – current situation

11. 2 Employment in residential care and social work activities I Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 11

12. 2 Employment in residential care and social work activities II Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 12 In 2011 about 80% of all employees in residential care and social work were females (EU average) In the selected countries, their share ranges from 70% in Germany to more than 90% in Slovakia The share of older workers (55+) is about 16% (EU average). In the selected countries: Nursing homes: 9% (PL) 27% (SVK) Social work: 12% (IT) 18% (PL)

13. Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 13 3 Future development of factors influencing the long-term care workforce

14. Demographic development Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 14 Rising life-expectancy Constant dependency rates: an increase in life-expectancy leads to a higher share of people with impairments in ADL Fertility rates Have an influence in the long-run on the informal care potential; but less relevant for the projection until 2025 Changing living arrangements Constant age/gender-specific probability of being a caregiver, taking into account changing living arrangements Increase in single households (exception SVK with a decline in single households) 3

15. 3 Demographic devolpment 2010 – 2025 (by demographic scenario) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 15

16. 3 People (65+) with impairments in ADL in selected countries 2010 - 2025 Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 16

17. 3 Changes in the number of informal caregiver (50+) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 17

18. 3 Changes in number of recipients of formal care 2010 - 2025 Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 18

19. 3 Changes in demand for formal long-term care workforce (national statistics) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 19

20. 3 Changes in employment between 2010 and 2025 (NEMESIS) Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 20

21. 3 Changes in demand for long-term care workforce and supply of residential care and social work 2010 - 2025 Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 21

22. Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 22 4 Discussion

23. Summary & Discussion I Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 23 Projection of demand and supply of long term care workforce Assumptions: constant utilization rates No behavioral adjustments No changes in the long-term care system Informal care remains the main pillar of the long-term care system in all countries with the exception of Denmark We expect an increase of dependent people until 2025; the number of potential carer increases as well. The supply of formal care has to increase by 17% (tough) or 35% (friendly) In general: the demand for long-term care grows stronger than labor supply in this sector 4

24. 4 Summary & Discussion II Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 24 Possible strategies to increase the supply of long-term care in the future: a)Measures to increase informal care b)Measures to increase the formal care workforce c)Recruitment of long-term care workers from abroad

25. 4 Summary & Discussion III Johannes Geyer 2nd NEUJOBS Validation Event 25 a)Measures to increase informal care Improve reconciliation of employment and informal care provision Training, counselling Increase the share (and amount of care provided) of male caregiver b)Measures to increase the formal care workforce Making jobs more attractive: wages, flexible working hours, reduction of part-time jobs, career opportunities Increase productivity by using more ICT c)Recruitment of long-term care workers from abroad

26. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit. DIW Berlin — Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung e.V. Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin www.diw.de Dr. Anika Rasner Phone: +49 30 89 789 235 Email: arasner@diw.de