1. Future of Lake Wingra Meeting University of Wisconsin May 9, 2007

2. Welcome! Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology

3. Overview Oonsie Biggs, Center for Limnology

4. Scenarios for the future of Lake Wingra 9 May 2007

5. Future of Lake Wingra?

6. Why think about the future? Lake Wingra is a community resource FOLW is developing goals for the watershed in collaboration with the community Future changes in the greater Madison area and beyond will impact our ability to meet the goals for Lake Wingra

7. TODAY 2035 FOLW strategies Zoo 955: Sketch future scenarios FOLW: Develop goals & strategies

8. Scenario analysis One approach to thinking about the future Scenarios are not predictions! Scenarios are plausible stories that expand our understanding of what the future might bring

9. Scenarios approach Scenarios can be qualitative and/or quantitative Time Today

10. Process 3 Feb FOLW goals public meeting 7 Feb Systems analysis brainstorming session 2 March Scenarios workshop with invited stakeholders to develop draft scenario storylines March Synthesis of scenario workshop & drafting of 4 selected storylines Early April Individual feedback interviews with stakeholders Late April Scenario revisions & drafting of final report 9 May Presentation of scenarios to FOLW

11. Goals for Lake Wingra Friends of Lake Wingra Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes

12. Scope of the Project Matt Van de Bogert, Center for Limnology

13. System Analysis Overview Lake Wingra Economic Social Political Ecological

14. Overview of systems analysis workshop Goals included: Define the system, its components, and the connections between them

15. Overview of systems analysis workshop Goals included: Define the time horizon and frequency of projection

16. Overview of systems analysis workshop Goals included: Identify key inputs and drivers to the system

17. Other lakes: Mendota, Monona Physical, chemical, biological characteristics: water clarity, bacteria, algae, nutrients, macrophytes, fish community, migratory birds, etc. Shore and adjacent wetlands Watershed City of Madison Lake Wingra City Government Businesses; investment; growth Land use: development, infilling, sprawl, construction Education Institutions: Edgewood, UW-Madison, UW-Arboretum. Infrastructure: roads, storm sewers, sanitary sewer, etc. Hydrology Surface-water runoff, phosphorus, salt, etc; groundwater depletion, recharge recreation, resource use, ecosystem services voting, lobbying policies, incentives, regulations People: individuals, households, families, taxpayers, voters User groups: anglers, swimmers, boaters, young explorers, bikers, hikers, skiers Organizations: neighborhoods, fishing or boating clubs, Friends of Lake Wingra, others City of Madison…The Social-Ecological System

18. City of Madison DANE COUNTY STATE OF WISCONSIN UNITED STATES THE WORLD External components, drivers, and inputs of the system Key Uncertainties -Invasive species -Economy -Human health Uncontrollable -U.S. economy -National security -Climate change No Alternative -Climate change Climate change Invasive species Technological innovations U.S. economyNational security Transportation L & W commission State legislation State economy Human health; disease State agencies (e.g., DNR) Federal agencies (e.g., EPA) National environmental awareness & practices Federal legislation (From the system level) Demographic changes

19. Current Condition of Lake Wingra Matt Diebel, Center for Limnology

20. Lake Wingra in 2007

21. Lake Wingra Watershed Odana Golf Course Arboretum Vilas Park Westgate Mall Edgewood Campus Lake Wingra

22. Lake Wingra Watershed Lake Wingra

23. Hydrology Direct Precipitation Surface Runoff Groundwater Inflow

24. Pollutants Sediment increase 500% Phosphorus increase 1000% Chloride increase 1500%

25. Poor Water Quality Frequent algae blooms Secchi depth 0.7 m

26. Native plant communities remain but are threatened by invasive species

29. Scenarios Overview Amy Kamarainen, Center for Limnology

30. Big Green BrotherGarden State C-CLEAR Exotic Exchange

31. Big Green Brother Jennifer Schmitz, Center for Limnology

32. 2010: City supports grassroots efforts with new tax incentives 2015: City and State support open space initiatives to the tune of $1 million

33. 2022: “What was once viewed as an opportunity for grassroots initiatives is now seen as big government,” reflects resident. 2029: Shorter winters and ice accidents lead to new safety regulations

34. 2029: Madison experiences eighth consecutive summer of below average rainfall 2033: County permits extraction of water from the Yahara lakes

35. 2035 – Lake Wingra goals eclipsed by top community priorities 2033 - City begins construction of multi-million dollar water park

36. Garden State David Zaks Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

37. 2012: Rain gardens and permeable blacktop used to recharge groundwater and reduce sediment loads

39. 2016: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology built on site formerly known as the Arboretum

40. 2020: Carp-a-thon mobilizes disparate community groups and effectively controls the Common carp population

41. 2022: Population growth leads to loss of dark sky certification

42. 2030: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology stock high-protein fish strain in Lake Wingra

43. C-CLEAR Chris Uejio Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

44. Community Coalition for Lake Ecology and Recreation (C-CLEAR)

45. 2015: “Success breeds success” New individuals & organizations join Friends of Lake Wingra “Friends” generate & leverage more resources Pressure local government to improve water quality

46. 2015-2025: “Gridlock” Community change: Older, more culturally & geographically diverse Violent conflict between anglers and fisher people C-CLEAR positively broadens access, outreach & education

47. 2015-2025: “Gridlock” (cont.) Dane county population & power grows; gridlock over environmental policy ensues Geographically broader coalition organizes across watershed; Yahara-CLEAR Less effort focused locally on original goals

48. 2025-2035: “Sustainable Organizing” Fracture: members leave & resume working locally Water quality steadily improved, but slower than members hoped Uncertainty over the coalition’s future

49. Exotic Exchange Brian Weidel, Center for Limnology

50. BEFORE AFTER 2010… common carp virtually eliminated

51. Panfish Musky

52. 2017…silver carp invade

54. Panfish Musky Carp2022

55. 2033 Silver Carp Virus

56. Discussion Questions Matt Kornis, Center for Limnology

57. Do any scenarios seem particularly likely or unlikely? Do any of the scenarios make you think differently about Lake Wingra’s future? What can you do now to make Lake Wingra a better resource for you and your neighbors? What do you see as priorities for managing Lake Wingra?

58. What’s Next? Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology