2. Click SLIDE SHOW button on bottom right Then click screen again to begin If an error message appears at top, your computer may require the “Active X control” download to view full animation & audio or try re-opening link in another browser (i.e. Internet Explorer)

3. The influence of dispersal & seasonality on lynx dynamics in W. Canada Gabriela Yates & Mark Boyce University of Alberta Click here for audio

4. Hudson’s Bay Co. Fur Trading Records & MacLulich 1937

5. Cycle breakdown- localized areas Lynx harvest in northern Alberta (Wood Buffalo Nat. Park) compared to Nordegg, Alberta site (Central Eastern Slopes). Boyce et al. 2005. Biological Conservation 126: 395. Mullen. 2006. M.S. Thesis, University of Alberta.

6. AB & BC have significant cycles at a provincial scale Results of spectral analysis of lynx population timeseries from harvest data Murray et al. In press. Journal of Wildlife Management. Cycle breakdown- provincial scale

7. Border States do NOT have significant cycles Results of spectral analysis of lynx population timeseries from harvest data Murray et al. In press. Journal of Wildlife Management. Cycle breakdown- provincial scale

8. Biological mechanisms affecting southern cycles Predator dispersal Predator dispersal Pulse from epicenter ( Ranta et al. 1997) Pulse from epicenter ( Ranta et al. 1997) Southern prey densities too low to Southern prey densities too low to support cyclic dynamics (Steury & Murray 2004) Population sink Population sink Immigration pulse from the core (McKelvey et al. 2000) Immigration pulse from the core (McKelvey et al. 2000) Hypotheses 1: Southern dynamics & persistence dependent on dispersal Hypotheses 1: Southern dynamics & persistence dependent on dispersal

9. Biological mechanisms affecting southern cycles Climate - seasonality Climate - seasonality Synchrony vs. asynchrony Synchrony vs. asynchrony (Stenseth et al. 1999,2004) NAO NAO East-west (provincial statistics) East-west (provincial statistics) Sunspot driven weather (Sinclair et al. 1993, Sinclair & Gosline 1997) Sunspot driven weather (Sinclair et al. 1993, Sinclair & Gosline 1997) Doesn’t explain eastern asynchrony (affected by NAO) Doesn’t explain eastern asynchrony (affected by NAO) Seasonality produces phase locking (King & Schaffer 2001) Seasonality produces phase locking (King & Schaffer 2001) Hypothesis 2: Weakened seasonality reduces seasonal forcing sustaining multi-year oscillator Hypothesis 2: Weakened seasonality reduces seasonal forcing sustaining multi-year oscillator

10. Research question Are changes in lynx dynamics related to. human induced change? Are changes in lynx dynamics related to. human induced change? Barriers to predator dispersal Barriers to predator dispersal Fragmentation due to industrial/urban development Fragmentation due to industrial/urban development Weakened seasonality Weakened seasonality Temperatures of the boreal increasing since 70s Temperatures of the boreal increasing since 70s Climate change may have widespread consequences Climate change may have widespread consequences

11. Research objectives Evaluate dispersal vs. seasonal-forcing hypotheses Evaluate dispersal vs. seasonal-forcing hypotheses 1. Regionally document cycle break down -North-south gradient -North-south gradient 2. Evaluate barriers to dispersal (via gene flow) across a latitudinal gradient 3. Radiocollar lynx to estimate model of habitats -Facilitate dispersal into South -Facilitate dispersal into South 4. Examine timeseries relative to climate data to evaluate seasonal-forcing

12. Obj 1. Cycles at appropriate scale Untangling the South Reduced amplitude More variable periodicities Less synchrony Compile harvest data Alberta & BC Hudson’s Bay Company Archives prior to1950 Provincial traplines 1950 - 2006. Aggregate appropriately Analyze across a latitudinal gradient using time-series methods Poole & Mowat 2001 Lynx harvest by trapline 1994-1999

13. Obj 2. Genetic view of dispersal Dispersal – gene flow Dispersal – gene flow Barriers in the increasingly fragmented south Barriers in the increasingly fragmented south Large sample sizes Large sample sizes Previous work Previous work Central & northern Alberta study ignored south (Campbell & Strobeck) Central & northern Alberta study ignored south (Campbell & Strobeck) Genetic drift in BC even w/ coarse-scale testing (Schwartz et al. 2002, Rueness et al. 2003) Genetic drift in BC even w/ coarse-scale testing (Schwartz et al. 2002, Rueness et al. 2003) Differentiation in the US (Schwartz personal communication) Differentiation in the US (Schwartz personal communication) Campbell & Strobeck 2006

14. Obj 2. Genetic view of dispersal cont. Planned methods Planned methods 2007-08 Alberta & BC trapping seasons 2007-08 Alberta & BC trapping seasons Skin from pelts Skin from pelts Estimated n = 250 Estimated n = 250 20 microsatellite loci effective in lynx 20 microsatellite loci effective in lynx Analysis Analysis Genetic subpopulations using STRUCTURE software Genetic subpopulations using STRUCTURE software Isolation at individual level Isolation at individual level Isolation by distance Isolation by distance Isolation by landscape resistance (see Cushman et al. 2006) Isolation by landscape resistance (see Cushman et al. 2006) Compare with habitat use data to unravel dispersal dynamics Compare with habitat use data to unravel dispersal dynamics

15. Obj 3. Habitat selection for dispersal Radiocollar sample Radiocollar sample Estimated n = 20 Estimated n = 20 Central Eastern Slopes Area Central Eastern Slopes Area Southwestern Alberta along Rockies Southwestern Alberta along Rockies Exposed to forestry & land use change Exposed to forestry & land use change Collaborate for robust model Collaborate for robust model Washington sample near BC border Washington sample near BC border NWT sample near Alberta border NWT sample near Alberta border Analysis Analysis Step selection function (SSF) Step selection function (SSF) Identify movement barriers throughout the region Identify movement barriers throughout the region Compare with evidence of gene-flow barriers Compare with evidence of gene-flow barriers

16. Obj 4. Climate analysis Examine seasonality metrics Examine seasonality metrics 50+ years of data from weather stations 50+ years of data from weather stations Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Warmer winters,  precipitation,  winter rain ratio, earlier snowpack melt Warmer winters,  precipitation,  winter rain ratio, earlier snowpack melt Research key component(s) of seasonality Research key component(s) of seasonality Winter (November–March) PDO index Winter (November–March) PDO index Temperature Temperature snow pack depth snow pack depth snow water equivalent snow water equivalent season length season length Compare reduced seasonality & deterioration of cycles Compare reduced seasonality & deterioration of cycles

17. Significance Explaining breakdown in cycle Explaining breakdown in cycle Dispersal in s. populations Dispersal in s. populations Seasonality hypothesized to maintain cycle Seasonality hypothesized to maintain cycle Consequences - fragmentation & climate change Consequences - fragmentation & climate change Seasonality as primary driver Seasonality as primary driver Show how climate change is altering population cycles Show how climate change is altering population cycles Dispersal as primary driver Dispersal as primary driver Habitat/dispersal maps identifying barriers in key habitats Habitat/dispersal maps identifying barriers in key habitats Model modified human use for persistent populations & habitat connections Model modified human use for persistent populations & habitat connections

18. Questions? Advice? Gabriela Yates Mark Boyce Gabriela Yates Mark Boyce University of Alberta Project Website: www.ualberta.ca/~gyates/projectlynx