1. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 1 NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops David Levinson, Ph.D. Climate Monitoring Branch National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) NOAA / NESDIS Asheville, NC January 11, 2006 Coastal Weather Impacts on Society and the Environment (CWISE) Update Meeting

2. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 2 Outline and Overview 2 Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast Workshop: –Anchorage, August 2-4, 2005 Pacific Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development Workshop: –Honolulu, December 5-6, 2005

3. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 3 Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE) Purpose of PRIDE program: –To meet critical regional needs for ocean, climate and ecosystem information –To protect lives and property –Support economic development –Enhance the resilience of Pacific Island communities in the face of changing environmental conditions

4. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 4 PRIDE Mission More than a traditional data activity (archive or services) –Fund external projects to accomplish goals Integrated enterprise for environmental products and services To strengthen delivery of ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem products and services to the diverse Pacific Island user community To provide feedback mechanism to ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem observing systems To provide a true focus for the regional integration and delivery of such products

5. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 5 PRIDE Team Original Core Members: –Howard Diamond (NESDIS/NCDC) –John Kineman & Dave Clark (NESDIS/NGDC) –Eileen Shea, East-West Center (NOAA IDEA Center) –Mike Seki (NMFS/PIFSC) –Bill Thomas, John Marra, Darcee Killpack (NOAA PSC) –Jeff Payne and Cindy Fowler (NOAA CSC) –Jim Weyman, NWS/WFO Honolulu –Ed Young, NWS/PRH –Jay McCreary and Peter Hacker (IPRC) Mailing list: – pride@noaa.govpride@noaa.gov

6. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 6 University of Hawaii –International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) –Asia Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC) –UH Sea Level Center NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) –National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) –National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) –National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) –Pacific Region Headquarters –Weather Forecast Office (HNL) –Pacific ENSO Applications Center –International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC) –Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) –Pacific Islands Regional Office –Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center –Coastwatch NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) –Pacific Services Center (PSC) –National Marine Sanctuaries –Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) PRIDE Partners

7. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 7 Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO) Background and purpose: –Network of partners and stakeholders involved in the development and delivery of risk management–related information, products, and services in the Pacific region. –PRiMO was established at the 2004 Roundtable of Federal Hazard Mitigation Partners in the Pacific Islands (FHMPPI), held in Honolulu, March 2004. –Overall goal of enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among the `ohana of partners and stakeholders involved in this work.

8. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 8 PRiMO Hui O’ Hana PRiMO Groups: –Observations and Data Management –Training and Education –Communications, Education, and Outreach –Risk Reduction and Post-Disaster Evaluation –Data Analysis and Decision Support Tools –Traditional Knowledge and Practices

9. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 9 PRiMO Framework

10. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 10 NOAA Integrated Data for Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center PRIDE Funded Center: –Focus is environmental data applications East-West Center as Institutional Incubator Contractual arrangement between NOAA/NESDIS (NCDC), RTi and East- West Center: –18-month initial contract period; two, one-year options –August 2005 start date (delayed till spring 2006) Initial Core Staff: –Interim Director (Eileen Shea) –Project Assistant for Data Integration –Project Assistant for Education/Outreach –Secretary/Administrative Assistant –Other fiscal and administrative support provided by EWC

11. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 11 NOAA IDEA Center Development of new products and services: –PRIDE 2006 solicitation & review process Stakeholder and partnering workshops: –Two targeted workshops per year –Support for related workshops & meetings (e.g., PRiMO) Support for regional observing systems & programs: –e.g., PI-GCOS, PacIOOS, PI-GOOS IDEA Center strategic planning & program development IDEA Center education and outreach: –Initial information technology systems development (if funding permits)

12. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 12 Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast Workshop Anchorage: August 2-4, 2005 OBJECTIVES –Assess agency (federal, state, NGO) needs regarding wind/wave climatologies for Alaska Coordination with Hawaii: needs/efforts –Assess present capacity: coastal wind/wave data availability, existing and planned observing systems (i.e. AK-IOOS) –Integration and modeling capability –Pilot Project and site selection

13. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 13 Accomplishments and Action Items Outreach: –Identification of collaborators –Clearly established the needs of emergency managers –Links were made to HI and the Pacific region (PRiMO) and other larger efforts (e.g. IOOS) Establishment of Stakeholder Relevant Time-Frames: –Days: “Reactive level” – emergency planning –Weeks/Months/Seasonal:“Proactive level” – anticipatory response –Several years:“Planning level” – city/county planning activities –Climate trends:“Lifecycle level” – civil engineering horizon Establishment of data and product needs: –Modeling Issues and Requirements (40+ wave models) –Available datasets for wind-wave climatologies

14. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 14 Workshop Goals/ Immediate Outcomes Identify Theme Areas: –Establish Theme Teams with designated Team Leaders Identify potential models and ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial, and other parameters: –Those required to support the coastal wind/wave models. Identify on-going similar work and potential partnerships Establish a team to outline and write a Plan of Action and Milestones (POA&M) that: –Delivers an operational support tool to Alaskan coastal planners by the end of FY 08. Prepare a FY06 PRIDE Proposal for FY06 activities –FY 07-08 activities and final operational deliverable.

15. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 15 Preliminary Wave Energy Hindcast Results for the Circum-Arctic Region PI- Dr. David Atkinson (University of Alaska-Fairbanks) Purpose: –Develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy Driving winds – gridded dataset is desirable: –North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km) –NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis –AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios Generate climatological wave fields: –monthly totals –annual totals –period means and trends (1979-2003) –Assess contribution of ice

16. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 16 Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000 (model initialized with observations) Melt season increasing Reduced sea ice cover

17. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 17 Storm Impacts on Coastal Erosion

18. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 18 ACD zones, weather station locations Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project

19. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 19 3 5 7 1 2 4 6 Storm counts

20. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 20 Trends in storm counts - no strong trend

21. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 21 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem

22. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 22 NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem

23. 1979 total ICENo ICE

24. 1998 total ICENo ICE

25. 1979 – 2003 mean ICENo ICE

26. 1979 – 2003 trends ICENo ICE

27. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 27 Wave Energy Hindcast for the Circum-Arctic Region Preliminary Conclusions: –Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear –Ice (marine and terrestrial) must be explicitly considered for erosion work –Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach –Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions

28. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 28 PRiMO Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development Workshop UH-Manoa, EWC: December 5-6, 2005 Workshop Objectives: –To engage subject matter experts to further develop the WWL hazards data framework –Align PRiMO’s data integration and sharing activities with related activities in the region –Establish user community familiarity with data sharing and access applications and tools –Aid in further establishing hazard and risk data management relationships that will enhance geospatial information sharing –Foster opportunities for greater collaboration in the region.

29. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 29 PRiMO Hazards Data Framework Development History – Defining of Framework Activities March 2004 PRiMO Annual Meeting: –identified the need to facilitate data integration and sharing as one of its overall objectives. –The lack of established hazards-related theme and data standards in this regard was identified as one of PRiMO’s primary focus areas. –The task of initiating regional hazards data framework development activities was assigned to PRiMO’s Observations and Data Management Hui.

30. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 30 Systems Data Products process time frame use sector Waves and Water Level Integrated System, Data, and Products Architecture Ocean Flooding Coastal Erosion Sea Level Change Tsunami Radar, Video, etc.SatellitesTide GaugesWave Buoys Real Time Near Real Time Delayed Mode Archived Historic NOWCAST FORECAST FUTURECAST warnings and bulletins weekly, monthly, seasonal outlook scenarios and projections Mitigation Planners and Managers Emergency Managers and Responders Recreation and Tourism Ship Masters and Port Managers

31. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 31 Proposed Natural Hazard Theme Categorization The range of natural hazards in the Pacific region are classified into 3 categories and 13 specific themes Seismic and Volcanic VolcanicSeismic DroughtWildfire Strong Winds Erosion and Landslides Weather and Climate Heavy Rains/Stream Flooding Severe Weather Waves and Water Levels High Waves Ocean Flooding Coastal Erosion Sea Level Rise Tsunami

32. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 32 The Natural Hazards Theme in a Risk Management Data Structure Three general types of data are used in Risk Management – Base or Framework data, Hazards data, and Assets data: Assets Data Natural Hazards Data Economic Critical Facilities Social Base or Framework Data Geodetic Control ImageryBoundaries CulturalEnvironmental Etc. Human or Environmental Hazards Data Hazards Data The focus of the ongoing PRiMO hazards data framework development initiatives are on Natural Hazards data.

33. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 33 Waves and Water Level File Structure Systems Ocean Flooding Coastal Erosion Sea Level Change Tsunami Waves and Water Level Read Me – Data ------ Dictionary Products Data nowcastforecastfuturecast Real Time Archived Level 1 QA/QC Level 2 QA/QC Level 3 QA/QC Tide Stations Wave Buoys Satellites Video, radar, etc. Tier 0 Tier 1 and 2 Tier 3, 4, and 5 sector

34. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 34 Waves and Water Level Data/Product Typology Tier 0 – station/platform information (e.g., station location description, instrument specifications) Tier 1 – “raw” data (e.g., real time or near real time elevation time series) Tier 2 – “archived” data (e.g., QA/QC’d historical elevation time series) Tier 3 – “derived” products (e.g., plot of observed versus predicted tides with residuals) Tier 4 – “applied” products (e.g., plot of total water level return intervals based on GEV analysis) Tier 5 – “customized” products (e.g., flood insurance rate map) Tier 6 – “culturally-sensitive” products ? Systems Data by system Products by process and time frame by use sector models…

35. NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations: Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops 35 What’s Next… Alaska Coastal Climatologies: –FY06 PRIDE Proposal (Feb. 06) –Pilot Project Selection: Cook Inlet West Coast site (e.g. Kotzebue) North Slope site (e.g. Barrow) Hawaii Coastal Climatologies: –NOAA IDEA Center wants to “jump-start” coastal climatologies program Hawaii pilot project focused on Wave and Water Level Hazards